English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Feb 8, 2026

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Newcastle United
Manchester United 		9.8%
74.0%		16.1%
+172
+147
+173
+147
3.19
o3+100
u3-108
o3+105
u3+120
FINAL
FINAL		0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Brighton and Hove Albion
Tottenham		16.6%
62.2%		21.2%
+586
-184
+580
-205
1
0		-1.93905-1.96084-1.79354
Liverpool
Manchester City		23.4%
52.0%		24.6%
+291
+101
+293
+100
2
2		-1.36102-1.36215-1.40251
Crystal Palace
Leicester City		16.3%
61.6%		22.1%
+201
+157
+180
+155
1
2		-0.96443-0.98195-0.48517
Burnley
Norwich City		40.4%
29.8%		29.7%
+144
+217
+140
+220
0
2		-1.17296-1.18617-1.20962
Tottenham
Aston Villa		47.5%
27.9%		24.6%
+122
+248
+115
+235
4
0		-0.81297-0.81362-0.74503
Brighton and Hove Albion
Arsenal		17.9%
59.0%		23.0%
+535
-146
+477
-150
2
1		-1.86253-1.78195-1.71814
Chelsea
Southampton		51.8%
24.7%		23.6%
+100
+299
-107
+305
6
0		-0.71527-0.69341-0.65875
Leeds United
Watford		46.2%
26.8%		27.1%
+163
+185
+161
+180
3
0		-0.98366-0.99317-0.77295
Manchester United
Everton		51.5%
24.3%		24.3%
-107
+316
-117
+340
0
1		-1.44244-1.51417-1.41564
Wolverhampton
Newcastle United		44.0%
28.7%		27.3%
+345
+100
+325
+100
0
1		-0.71182-0.73253-1.24956
Everton
Burnley		47.1%
26.4%		26.5%
+218
+158
+210
+150
2
3		-0.96811-0.96045-1.33347
Arsenal
Crystal Palace		50.7%
23.4%		25.9%
+104
+323
-105
+330
0
3		-1.45852-1.49343-1.45389
Newcastle United
Tottenham		14.6%
66.0%		19.5%
+565
-177
+540
-185
1
5		-0.46694-0.48023-0.41612
Everton
West Ham United		36.9%
35.7%		27.4%
+395
-128
+390
-133
1
2		-0.59957-0.60697-1.03016
Leicester City
Manchester United		24.1%
51.4%		24.5%
+477
-171
+480
-185
1
1		-1.54066-1.52929-1.40784
Norwich City
Brighton and Hove Albion		21.6%
52.3%		26.1%
+683
-195
+665
-210
0
0		-1.47788-1.47661-1.34228
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks64-1-1 (0.750)0-0.79028 
Sportsbooks64-1-1 (0.750)0-0.78900 
DRatings65-0-1 (0.917)0-0.75035
0.03992
0.03864

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.