German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Augsburg
Bayern Munich 		3.5%
88.8%		7.6%
+1600
-850

0.67
3.57		4.24
o3¾-120
u3¾+101

Games for Nov 21, 2024
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Arminia Bielefeld
Dortmund		10.7%
73.2%		16.1%
+891
-280
+825
-325
0
1		-0.31729-0.31807-0.31187
FC Koln
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		9.6%
76.3%		14.1%
+394
-144
+388
-155
1
0		-1.61702-1.63204-2.34800
Hertha BSC
Borussia Monchengladbach		13.3%
69.9%		16.7%
+523
-188
+495
-190
0
2		-0.45092-0.45607-0.35765
VfB Stuttgart
Union Berlin		36.5%
37.1%		26.3%
+280
+115
+255
+110
1
1		-1.25218-1.27447-1.33382
Wolfsburg
Freiburg		41.4%
32.1%		26.5%
+280
+108
+290
+108
2
3		-0.75158-0.74345-1.13638
Bayern Munich
Hoffenheim		79.0%
8.1%		12.9%
-213
+519
-185
+486
1
1		-1.76650-1.72839-2.04810
Hoffenheim
FC Koln		49.3%
27.6%		23.1%
+139
+205
+145
+190
1
0		-0.88416-0.92490-0.70686
Borussia Monchengladbach
VfB Stuttgart		51.8%
25.3%		22.9%
+154
+187
+137
+190
2
3		-1.07254-1.10830-1.37599
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Bayern Munich		12.8%
70.1%		17.0%
+618
-255
+575
-240
1
1		-1.82263-1.79108-1.77078
Freiburg
RB Leipzig		13.5%
68.6%		18.0%
+580
-190
+542
-175
1
1		-1.51072-1.49197-1.71702
Union Berlin
Wolfsburg		20.7%
56.7%		22.6%
+275
+130
+255
+118
0
1		-0.84485-0.82184-0.56747
Eint Frankfurt
Hertha BSC		50.8%
26.7%		22.5%
+122
+237
+120
+230
4
1		-0.81554-0.82926-0.67729
Augsburg
Arminia Bielefeld		32.6%
40.8%		26.7%
+210
+155
+195
+150
1
0		-1.15827-1.12298-1.12233
Dortmund
Augsburg		67.3%
14.7%		18.0%
-111
+320
-115
+295
1
1		-1.39090-1.39477-1.71302
Bayern Munich
Eint Frankfurt		76.6%
9.6%		13.8%
-205
+511
-214
+500
1
0		-0.41908-0.42312-0.26694
Arminia Bielefeld
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		10.0%
74.0%		15.9%
+825
-295
+675
-268
0
3		-0.32802-0.36376-0.30086
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.