German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Augsburg
Bayern Munich 		3.5%
88.8%		7.6%
+1600
-850

0.67
3.57		4.24
o3¾-120
u3¾+101

Games for Nov 21, 2024
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Dortmund
Hertha BSC		58.2%
23.7%		18.1%
-165
+445
-175
+410
2
3		-1.72597-1.67788-1.43910
Arminia Bielefeld
RB Leipzig		14.9%
70.2%		14.9%
+1450
-455
+1300
-455
2
0		-2.76288-2.68311-1.90213
Mainz 05
Eint Frankfurt		23.9%
58.1%		18.0%
+185
+155
+185
+150
0
1		-0.96845-0.96029-0.54276
Borussia Monchengladbach
Hoffenheim		45.9%
31.8%		22.3%
+272
+100
+255
-105
1
1		-1.38589-1.43873-1.50206
Wolfsburg
Bayern Munich		15.3%
70.8%		13.9%
+1601
-500
+1250
-525
0
4		-0.18704-0.21498-0.34547
Hoffenheim
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		24.3%
56.6%		19.1%
+270
+100
+285
-107
2
2		-1.38733-1.39352-1.65705
Freiburg
Union Berlin		38.7%
36.8%		24.5%
+195
+160
+200
+155
0
0		-1.19862-1.18945-1.40527
RB Leipzig
Augsburg		65.4%
18.7%		15.8%
-230
+640
-242
+650
1
1		-1.64589-1.63327-1.84251
Eint Frankfurt
Borussia Monchengladbach		29.7%
49.5%		20.8%
+233
+115
+235
+112
3
2		-1.23114-1.25218-1.21497
FC Koln
Wolfsburg		22.7%
59.1%		18.2%
+240
+120
+230
+120
3
2		-1.24988-1.23629-1.48483
Hertha BSC
Mainz 05		38.7%
37.9%		23.4%
+325
-105
+325
-105
0
4		-0.70409-0.70981-0.96951
Bayern Munich
VfB Stuttgart		73.1%
14.5%		12.4%
-325
+894
-340
+825
5
0		-0.29225-0.30162-0.31299
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Eint Frankfurt		46.6%
31.5%		21.9%
+125
+225
+133
+215
2
5		-1.20011-1.17154-1.15442
VfB Stuttgart
Wolfsburg		28.7%
49.0%		22.3%
+315
-105
+310
+105
2
0		-1.45509-1.43818-1.24799
Mainz 05
Bayern Munich		7.7%
84.1%		8.2%
+1200
-420
+1125
-465
1
2		-0.23403-0.24119-0.17264
Borussia Monchengladbach
RB Leipzig		29.1%
49.2%		21.7%
+317
-115
+321
-115
1
4		-0.65633-0.65160-0.71029
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.