German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Augsburg
Bayern Munich 		3.5%
88.8%		7.6%
+1550
-850

0.67
3.57		4.24
o3¾-122
u3¾+103

Games for Nov 21, 2024
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Mainz 05
VfB Stuttgart		27.5%
51.6%		20.9%
+175
+170
+180
+170
1
2		-1.02527-1.02424-0.66209
FC Koln
Mainz 05		36.6%
40.3%		23.1%
+260
+110
+260
+110
1
1		-1.30199-1.28125-1.46443
Eint Frankfurt
Freiburg		39.2%
37.5%		23.4%
+315
-105
+320
-110
2
0		-1.44630-1.47399-0.93685
Hertha BSC
Union Berlin		32.4%
44.6%		23.0%
+345
+100
+325
-105
0
2		-0.71611-0.70981-0.80638
VfB Stuttgart
Dortmund		23.8%
57.8%		18.5%
+837
-290
+800
-290
1
2		-0.32229-0.34045-0.54844
RB Leipzig
Hoffenheim		54.1%
25.8%		20.1%
-133
+350
-130
+350
0
2		-1.53977-1.53211-1.35394
Wolfsburg
Arminia Bielefeld		50.4%
26.6%		23.0%
+105
+312
-102
+325
2
2		-1.24810-1.25544-1.46924
Bayern Munich
Augsburg		79.6%
10.5%		9.9%
-500
+1400
-525
+1300
1
2		-2.73229-2.68458-2.25351
Union Berlin
FC Koln		40.9%
35.7%		23.4%
+275
+105
+280
+101
2
2		-1.30247-1.28764-1.45316
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Hertha BSC		59.3%
22.8%		17.9%
+120
+240
+115
+240
1
1		-1.30298-1.28627-1.72003
Dortmund
RB Leipzig		31.0%
46.5%		22.5%
+315
-120
+300
-110
1
2		-0.64190-0.67641-0.76608
Freiburg
Bayern Munich		12.0%
76.6%		11.4%
+1483
-600
+1400
-580
1
2		-0.18892-0.20422-0.26686
Augsburg
Wolfsburg		22.7%
58.2%		19.1%
+520
-170
+515
-170
0
1		-0.49124-0.50102-0.54139
Arminia Bielefeld
VfB Stuttgart		28.2%
49.1%		22.7%
+325
+100
+320
-105
1
0		-1.45994-1.47443-1.26617
Borussia Monchengladbach
Mainz 05		59.1%
22.9%		18.0%
+160
+165
+162
+165
1
1		-1.27834-1.30685-1.71385
Hertha BSC
Hoffenheim		28.7%
50.4%		20.9%
+412
-120
+350
-133
0
2		-0.59624-0.59986-0.68558
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.