German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated 18 hr ago

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Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
04/30/2022 01:30 PM	FC Koln Augsburg	32.9% 42.3%	24.8%	+132 +213 +130 +210	4 1	-0.86287-0.87666	-1.11188
04/30/2022 01:30 PM	Hertha BSC Arminia Bielefeld	35.2% 38.1%	26.7%	+172 +182 +180 +172	1 1	-1.22950-1.20848	-1.32219
04/24/2022 03:30 PM	VfB Stuttgart Hertha BSC	42.1% 33.1%	24.9%	+146 +219 +140 +215	0 2	-1.18189-1.19112	-1.10697
04/23/2022 04:30 PM	Dortmund Bayern Munich	11.9% 72.1%	16.0%	+712 -305 +700 -325	1 3	-0.31050-0.31652	-0.32768
04/23/2022 01:30 PM	Union Berlin RB Leipzig	10.8% 73.4%	15.9%	+562 -161 +520 -175	2 1	-1.90784-1.87113	-2.22999
04/23/2022 01:30 PM	Hoffenheim Eint Frankfurt	29.5% 47.1%	23.4%	+194 +138 +180 +145	2 2	-1.36790-1.34531	-1.45111
04/23/2022 01:30 PM	Borussia Monchengladbach Freiburg	49.4% 26.7%	23.9%	+325 -118 +310 -120	3 3	-1.42192-1.41535	-1.42970
04/23/2022 01:30 PM	Arminia Bielefeld FC Koln	33.4% 40.6%	26.0%	+700 -229 +670 -225	1 3	-0.38554-0.40428	-0.90118
04/22/2022 06:30 PM	Mainz 05 Wolfsburg	14.5% 66.7%	18.8%	+190 +150 +205 +143	0 5	-0.94636-0.91672	-0.40437
04/17/2022 05:30 PM	RB Leipzig Bayer 04 Leverkusen	38.2% 35.7%	26.1%	+194 +158 +180 +156	1 0	-1.09835-1.07067	-0.96341
04/17/2022 03:30 PM	Eint Frankfurt Union Berlin	44.8% 30.8%	24.3%	+296 +105 +280 +100	0 2	-0.73733-0.74087	-1.17684
04/17/2022 01:30 PM	Bayern Munich Arminia Bielefeld	84.9% 4.9%	10.2%	-562 +1713 -600 +1500	3 0	-0.17659-0.20089	-0.16351
04/16/2022 04:30 PM	FC Koln Borussia Monchengladbach	11.7% 72.9%	15.4%	+242 +116 +250 +102	3 1	-1.24462-1.29913	-2.14969
04/16/2022 01:30 PM	Wolfsburg Dortmund	24.4% 52.2%	23.4%	+465 -166 +525 -180	1 6	-0.49451-0.46421	-0.64949
04/16/2022 01:30 PM	VfB Stuttgart Mainz 05	47.2% 28.7%	24.1%	+270 +105 +290 -104	0 0	-1.31617-1.34419	-1.42221
04/16/2022 01:30 PM	Hertha BSC Augsburg	35.8% 38.7%	25.5%	+314 -102 +330 -112	1 0	-1.44168-1.49286	-1.02658

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	1	0-1-0 (0.000)	0	-1.36787
Sportsbooks	1	0-1-0 (0.000)	0	-1.43658
DRatings	1	0-1-0 (0.000)	0	-1.05604	0.31183 0.38054

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win League	Make Champions League	Make Europa League	Relegation Playoff	Relegation
1	Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)	24.8	4.6	4.7	79.0	99.6%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)	21.3	5.8	6.9	70.9	0.4%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
3	RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)	18.4	3.8	11.8	67.0	0.0%	96.7%	3.3%	0.0%	0.0%
4	Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)	18.9	9.1	6.0	62.7	0.0%	43.4%	56.6%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)	19.3	8.7	5.9	63.9	0.0%	60.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)	13.2	10.7	10.1	49.7	0.0%	0.0%	72.9%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)	13.1	13.0	8.0	47.2	0.0%	0.0%	16.6%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)	12.1	12.9	9.1	45.3	0.0%	0.0%	7.3%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)	10.9	14.1	9.0	41.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)	11.9	16.1	6.1	41.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
12	FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)	11.3	16.5	6.1	40.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)	9.4	15.7	9.0	37.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.8%	0.3%
14	Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)	10.6	17.2	6.2	38.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	0.0%
15	Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)	10.0	19.0	5.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	14.4%	1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.