German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Augsburg
Bayern Munich 		3.5%
88.8%		7.6%
+1600
-825

0.67
3.57		4.24
o3¾-120
u3¾+103

Games for Nov 21, 2024
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Freiburg
Mainz 05		45.3%
30.6%		24.1%
+225
+140
+224
+165
0
1		-0.90609-0.96822-0.90822
FC Koln
Union Berlin		30.3%
46.8%		22.9%
+324
+100
+310
+100
1
2		-0.73129-0.74345-0.49872
Schalke 04
Wolfsburg		20.6%
62.9%		16.6%
+703
-230
+900
-240
0
5		-0.38668-0.37131-0.28312
Borussia Monchengladbach
Augsburg		57.9%
24.1%		18.0%
-136
+375
-130
+371
1
3		-1.59130-1.58182-1.22557
Werder Bremen
Arminia Bielefeld		34.5%
38.5%		26.9%
+120
+265
+125
+260
2
0		-0.47170-0.48552-0.74965
Union Berlin
Arminia Bielefeld		38.5%
34.2%		27.3%
+100
+300
+100
+290
0
0		-0.75204-0.74789-0.69486
Werder Bremen
FC Koln		35.8%
39.2%		25.1%
+145
+220
+160
+226
1
1		-0.70204-0.69953-0.69418
Dortmund
Bayern Munich		20.2%
65.7%		14.1%
+450
-179
+430
-180
2
4		-0.24951-0.25735-0.26842
Augsburg
Hertha BSC		33.1%
42.5%		24.4%
+275
+117
+300
+115
1
2		-0.45659-0.43015-0.57638
VfB Stuttgart
Eint Frankfurt		30.9%
46.5%		22.6%
+300
-112
+290
-110
1
1		-0.76155-0.75562-0.71382
RB Leipzig
Freiburg		54.8%
25.1%		20.2%
-147
+425
-150
+410
3
0		-0.27768-0.28277-0.37734
Wolfsburg
Hoffenheim		39.6%
34.7%		25.8%
+165
+170
+158
+175
1
2		-0.70253-0.72557-0.76132
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Borussia Monchengladbach		37.7%
36.6%		25.7%
+175
+154
+170
+160
1
0		-0.73366-0.71221-0.67924
Mainz 05
Schalke 04		36.0%
37.8%		26.2%
+121
+245
+120
+242
0
0		-0.71774-0.71728-0.69342
Freiburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		23.7%
57.5%		18.8%
+373
-122
+350
-125
2
1		-1.28075-1.25278-1.23052
Augsburg
Mainz 05		35.7%
38.6%		25.7%
+285
+106
+275
+105
1
0		-1.05394-1.04001-0.73343
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.