Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Apr 21, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Genoa
Inter		7.2%
80.0%		12.8%
+1225
-385
+1200
-410
1
2		-0.26359-0.25928-0.22319
Juventus
Napoli		45.3%
28.1%		26.6%
+258
+130
+240
+130
1
2		-0.85635-0.87347-1.27043
Bologna
Atalanta		8.8%
78.0%		13.1%
+295
+105
+280
+105
2
1		-1.40165-1.37500-2.42554
Sassuolo
Hellas Verona		35.4%
37.7%		26.9%
+217
+137
+209
+135
0
1		-0.88979-0.89678-0.97601
Fiorentina
Torino		45.8%
28.5%		25.7%
+210
+162
+215
+155
0
0		-1.14677-1.14069-1.35786
Salernitana
Udinese		12.6%
67.8%		19.5%
+470
-148
+475
-155
1
1		-1.38922-1.35903-1.63260
Milan
Lazio		35.6%
37.6%		26.8%
+137
+227
+135
+218
1
0		-0.89771-0.90101-1.03193
Atalanta
Inter		28.6%
47.7%		23.7%
+485
-160
+460
-164
0
4		-0.50964-0.52467-0.74057
Napoli
Sassuolo		53.0%
23.8%		23.3%
-128
+367
-125
+333
6
1		-0.60561-0.62980-0.63580
Lazio
Fiorentina		50.8%
24.5%		24.7%
+268
+114
+261
+115
1
2		-0.79509-0.80616-1.40797
Torino
Roma		11.6%
72.6%		15.8%
+355
+100
+330
-102
2
3		-0.72025-0.72751-0.32010
Atalanta
Milan		36.4%
38.1%		25.4%
+213
+137
+200
+135
1
1		-1.26919-1.29638-1.36936
Napoli
Cagliari		64.8%
15.2%		20.0%
-120
+365
-129
+360
1
1		-1.36810-1.35806-1.61009
Udinese
Genoa		36.3%
35.3%		28.3%
+243
+149
+240
+150
0
2		-0.93308-0.94887-1.04001
Hellas Verona
Bologna		40.2%
33.0%		26.8%
+565
-158
+550
-170
0
2		-0.50938-0.49860-1.10960
Lazio
Torino		65.7%
15.3%		19.1%
+197
+181
+200
+183
2
0		-1.12301-1.12396-0.42079
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-2-0 (0.000)0-1.15924 
Sportsbooks20-1-0 (0.000)0-1.13346 
DRatings20-2-0 (0.000)0-1.64060
-0.48137
-0.50714

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.