Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Genoa
Lazio		11.6%
71.7%		16.7%
+350
-122
+385
-118
1
0		-1.53842-1.60018-2.15632
Bologna
Juventus		6.8%
80.5%		12.6%
+415
-135
+430
-145
1
1		-1.37607-1.37773-2.06838
Roma
Hellas Verona		53.3%
23.2%		23.5%
-112
+360
-110
+400
1
2		-1.56098-1.61893-1.46236
Torino
Milan		9.6%
75.5%		14.9%
+440
-135
+400
-120
1
4		-0.58738-0.63605-0.28143
Milan
Bologna		66.9%
14.5%		18.6%
+105
+295
+100
+290
2
0		-0.74417-0.73364-0.40182
Cagliari
Torino		33.4%
40.7%		25.9%
+545
-170
+490
-160
0
0		-1.42035-1.40141-1.35205
Juventus
Udinese		69.8%
11.4%		18.8%
+105
+290
+101
+300
3
0		-0.75381-0.74314-0.36010
Atalanta
Sassuolo		61.0%
19.3%		19.7%
+125
+228
+120
+230
2
0		-0.83769-0.83160-0.49421
Salernitana
Roma		4.9%
85.2%		9.9%
+670
-190
+652
-198
2
2		-1.43953-1.43263-2.31152
Fiorentina
Genoa		44.2%
29.5%		26.4%
+145
+225
+140
+230
4
1		-0.91036-0.90716-0.81701
Hellas Verona
Spezia		45.9%
27.7%		26.4%
+215
+178
+190
+180
3
1		-1.17506-1.11045-0.77820
Juventus
Udinese		69.8%
11.4%		18.8%
-155
+430
-150
+400
1
0		-0.53188-0.55961-0.36010
Spezia
Roma		9.9%
75.1%		15.0%
+390
-130
+360
-130
1
2		-0.60519-0.61865-0.28615
Hellas Verona
Milan		14.4%
65.8%		19.8%
+440
-150
+410
-150
1
3		-0.54542-0.56198-0.41850
Sampdoria
Napoli		12.9%
68.9%		18.2%
+2500
-1000
+2200
-1100
0
2		-0.12572-0.13681-0.37269
Inter
Torino		75.6%
9.6%		14.8%
+196
+150
+165
+160
1
0		-1.10845-1.02510-0.27924
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.