Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lazio
Napoli		32.0%
41.4%		26.6%
+516
-153
+460
-160
1
0		-1.83196-1.77190-1.14056
Torino
Juventus		6.4%
81.4%		12.2%
+505
-140
+475
-145
2
4		-0.56505-0.57471-0.20557
Sampdoria
Lazio		13.2%
68.9%		17.9%
+900
-250
+775
-250
0
1		-0.36317-0.38602-0.37296
Fiorentina
Hellas Verona		34.8%
36.4%		28.8%
+126
+250
+120
+250
3
0		-0.84611-0.83529-1.05481
Atalanta
Milan		36.4%
38.1%		25.4%
+245
+130
+240
+120
0
2		-0.84730-0.83884-0.96451
Spezia
Udinese		24.0%
50.5%		25.6%
+388
-127
+410
-130
2
2		-1.35236-1.33941-1.36324
Inter
Bologna		74.2%
10.3%		15.4%
-134
+415
-135
+390
0
1		-1.66521-1.64041-2.27157
Hellas Verona
Roma		17.2%
62.2%		20.6%
+470
-128
+420
-125
0
1		-0.60042-0.62482-0.47515
Juventus
Spezia		78.2%
7.6%		14.2%
-151
+516
-155
+475
2
0		-0.52513-0.54512-0.24603
Lazio
Salernitana		81.1%
6.5%		12.4%
-125
+412
-130
+380
2
0		-0.60870-0.62060-0.20930
Udinese
Inter		9.0%
75.3%		15.8%
+650
-222
+625
-230
1
3		-0.39838-0.41198-0.28421
Bologna
Sampdoria		30.6%
44.3%		25.2%
+133
+255
+130
+240
2
1		-0.86427-0.88312-1.18581
Napoli
Sassuolo		53.0%
23.8%		23.3%
-155
+475
-160
+410
2
0		-0.51046-0.53661-0.63580
Inter
Sampdoria		71.6%
11.6%		16.8%
-265
+850
-275
+825
0
0		-1.67510-1.61717-1.78343
Salernitana
Hellas Verona		10.9%
71.4%		17.7%
+420
-126
+425
-130
0
1		-0.60062-0.61915-0.33651
Fiorentina
Juventus		10.8%
71.4%		17.7%
+437
-128
+400
-130
0
1		-0.59867-0.62021-0.33648
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.