Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Torino
Napoli		10.7%
73.0%		16.3%
+547
-156
+480
-170
1
3		-0.51545-0.51336-0.31446
Napoli
Milan		30.4%
43.2%		26.4%
+239
+143
+240
+130
2
1		-1.23491-1.27397-1.19030
Atalanta
Roma		42.0%
33.8%		24.2%
+275
+117
+260
+105
1
0		-1.34144-1.33094-0.86783
Hellas Verona
Fiorentina		29.2%
43.1%		27.6%
+365
-117
+320
-120
0
2		-0.63839-0.65857-0.84060
Inter
Udinese		68.8%
12.4%		18.8%
+103
+295
-110
+285
1
3		-1.38894-1.39707-2.08578
Sassuolo
Torino		46.7%
29.2%		24.2%
+384
-114
+340
-120
1
0		-1.59386-1.53090-0.76245
Sampdoria
Spezia		41.0%
32.5%		26.5%
+194
+175
+185
+160
1
2		-1.02870-1.00239-1.12476
Salernitana
Juventus		3.1%
88.8%		8.1%
+573
-168
+600
-200
2
2		-1.46659-1.47238-2.50801
Hellas Verona
Lazio		16.2%
62.8%		21.0%
+478
-158
+460
-170
0
2		-0.50818-0.51061-0.46544
Udinese
Sassuolo		26.8%
48.1%		25.2%
+169
+177
+160
+165
3
1		-1.01024-1.00605-1.31789
Fiorentina
Bologna		43.9%
30.1%		26.0%
+126
+249
+120
+230
1
2		-1.26454-1.24434-1.20104
Milan
Sampdoria		63.8%
16.1%		20.0%
-182
+575
-200
+550
2
1		-0.45353-0.45463-0.44874
Torino
Inter		6.8%
81.0%		12.1%
+513
-175
+500
-190
0
1		-0.46872-0.47080-0.21046
Spezia
Napoli		9.2%
75.2%		15.5%
+974
-333
+860
-355
0
1		-0.28603-0.30066-0.28438
Roma
Udinese		57.1%
20.3%		22.6%
+110
+316
+100
+295
0
4		-1.43196-1.42412-1.59475
Sampdoria
Hellas Verona		28.0%
46.0%		26.0%
+250
+130
+225
+130
1
2		-0.84742-0.88187-0.77670
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.