Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Mar 14, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Udinese
Fiorentina		26.1%
46.9%		27.0%
+520
-155
+461
-155
2
2		-1.37650-1.38306-1.30748
Bologna
Cagliari		34.2%
39.8%		26.0%
+154
+220
+145
+226
1
2		-1.19152-1.22360-0.92181
Salernitana
Napoli		4.7%
84.7%		10.6%
+960
-315
+837
-310
1
2		-0.31030-0.32325-0.16561
Torino
Genoa		31.8%
42.7%		25.5%
+160
+230
+160
+218
0
0		-1.10352-1.10769-1.36688
Salernitana
Atalanta		3.6%
88.5%		7.8%
+1177
-380
+1000
-375
1
4		-0.25950-0.27598-0.12202
Inter
Lazio		44.6%
29.9%		25.6%
-109
+333
-108
+330
2
0		-0.67783-0.69223-0.80822
Roma
Bologna		63.2%
17.4%		19.4%
+250
+154
+230
+145
0
2		-0.95039-0.93966-1.75025
Sassuolo
Udinese		39.0%
34.0%		27.0%
+192
+152
+190
+145
2
2		-1.26713-1.29073-1.30804
Hellas Verona
Fiorentina		29.2%
43.1%		27.6%
+640
-206
+600
-210
0
1		-0.42112-0.42874-0.84060
Cagliari
Napoli		11.0%
72.1%		16.9%
+648
-225
+780
-255
1
2		-0.38587-0.34954-0.32707
Juventus
Genoa		75.1%
9.3%		15.5%
+107
+394
+110
+405
1
1		-1.10603-1.09491-1.86117
Sassuolo
Cagliari		45.9%
29.6%		24.6%
+207
+156
+180
+164
1
2		-0.94046-1.00038-1.21909
Fiorentina
Roma		19.4%
59.0%		21.6%
+335
+115
+310
+100
1
1		-1.24337-1.26111-1.53229
Bologna
Salernitana		57.9%
20.0%		22.1%
+110
+387
-120
+365
2
1		-0.69641-0.64747-0.54637
Udinese
Inter		9.0%
75.3%		15.8%
+1400
-368
+1200
-450
0
4		-0.25130-0.24301-0.28421
Milan
Atalanta		30.2%
45.5%		24.3%
+198
+160
+187
+155
2
3		-0.97755-0.98323-0.78774
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.54952 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.54853 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.43889
0.11063
0.10964

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.