Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Feb 27, 2021

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Milan
Lazio 		35.6%
37.6%		26.8%
-122
+383
-120
+365
2.53
o2¼-125
u2½-125
o2½+105
u2½-120
2nd H
56:00		0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Salernitana
Bologna		14.6%
66.3%		19.1%
+285
+113
+270
+110
1
1		-1.25727-1.24223-1.65517
Torino
Atalanta		8.2%
79.2%		12.6%
+340
-110
+330
-115
1
3		-0.66423-0.67368-0.23367
Spezia
Juventus		5.6%
82.7%		11.7%
+1054
-314
+1000
-360
0
2		-0.29834-0.29440-0.18988
Fiorentina
Udinese		38.2%
32.8%		29.0%
+217
+140
+215
+140
0
1		-0.88919-0.90758-1.11471
Lazio
Sampdoria		60.8%
18.2%		21.0%
-111
+339
-115
+310
1
1		-1.34209-1.35623-1.56060
Milan
Sassuolo		56.0%
21.9%		22.1%
-149
+440
-165
+425
0
0		-1.49241-1.49419-1.50815
Napoli
Fiorentina		50.9%
23.8%		25.3%
+124
+240
+110
+240
0
0		-1.30711-1.31763-1.37524
Sampdoria
Salernitana		60.3%
18.1%		21.6%
+229
+147
+210
+140
0
4		-0.92435-0.92591-1.70909
Atalanta
Hellas Verona		62.5%
17.3%		20.1%
-109
+310
-115
+300
1
0		-0.67131-0.67598-0.46944
Sassuolo
Spezia		50.7%
25.5%		23.7%
+133
+215
+120
+215
2
2		-1.31513-1.32950-1.43898
Bologna
Milan		10.4%
74.1%		15.5%
+831
-278
+850
-325
0
2		-0.32848-0.31875-0.30034
Roma
Juventus		19.9%
58.2%		21.9%
+218
+156
+215
+140
1
1		-1.17623-1.19773-1.51832
Inter
Lazio		44.6%
29.9%		25.6%
-106
+325
-125
+330
1
3		-1.45985-1.50860-1.20895
Juventus
Sampdoria		72.6%
10.6%		16.7%
-141
+458
-155
+460
0
0		-1.40047-1.39320-1.78862
Hellas Verona
Bologna		40.2%
33.0%		26.8%
+287
+108
+260
+110
1
1		-1.29372-1.27072-1.31621
Milan
Atalanta		30.2%
45.5%		24.3%
+147
+198
+145
+180
1
1		-1.29898-1.30254-1.41367
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.03438 
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-1.05576 
DRatings20-2-0 (0.000)0-1.40997
-0.37559
-0.35422

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.