Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 9, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Sassuolo
Torino		44.5%
32.7%		22.7%
+301
-105
+275
+100
1
1		-1.34962-1.30383-1.48078
Sampdoria
Spezia		40.7%
34.7%		24.6%
+190
+165
+180
+165
0
1		-1.00865-1.02521-1.05762
Salernitana
Napoli		9.7%
78.0%		12.3%
+2200
-800
+2000
-900
1
4		-0.15473-0.15689-0.24897
Fiorentina
Cagliari		43.3%
32.0%		24.7%
-195
+600
-160
+450
1
1		-1.52989-1.41321-1.39938
Atalanta
Lazio		40.0%
36.8%		23.2%
+225
+130
+210
+130
0
0		-1.28057-1.28450-1.46037
Udinese
Genoa		37.5%
36.8%		25.7%
+120
+267
+115
+260
0
0		-1.23416-1.22799-1.35697
Bologna
Hellas Verona		30.0%
46.3%		23.7%
+355
-108
+350
-125
1
2		-0.66107-0.63824-0.77005
Genoa
Fiorentina		27.7%
49.2%		23.1%
+760
-245
+720
-250
0
6		-0.37234-0.38649-0.70877
Spezia
Milan		15.2%
69.9%		14.9%
+975
-340
+950
-350
2
1		-2.40684-2.40163-1.88105
Napoli
Bologna		57.5%
22.8%		19.6%
-120
+365
-120
+335
2
0		-0.63296-0.65427-0.55286
Inter
Atalanta		39.0%
37.7%		23.3%
+125
+220
+125
+215
0
0		-1.31505-1.31983-1.45758
Cagliari
Roma		19.6%
64.3%		16.2%
+818
-280
+810
-285
0
1		-0.33553-0.34969-0.44200
Hellas Verona
Sassuolo		33.0%
42.8%		24.2%
+200
+140
+220
+120
4
2		-1.12828-1.21456-1.10733
Udinese
Juventus		14.5%
68.4%		17.1%
+745
-235
+725
-250
0
2		-0.37818-0.38578-0.37984
Lazio
Salernitana		73.8%
12.7%		13.4%
-315
+1035
-315
+875
3
0		-0.29804-0.31821-0.30320
Torino
Sampdoria		32.3%
44.2%		23.4%
+115
+270
+135
+240
2
1		-0.79454-0.86810-1.12880
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.48122 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.45629 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.10332
-0.62210
-0.64703

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.