Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Feb 27, 2021

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Lazio
Inter 		22.9%
53.8%		23.3%
+930
-315
+900
-315
2.86
o2¾+100
u2¾-120
o2½-130
u2½+120
2nd H
56:00		0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Genoa
Torino		36.0%
40.0%		24.0%
+425
-135
+420
-145
2
3		-0.57869-0.57408-0.91694
Roma
Juventus		26.0%
52.8%		21.2%
+321
-110
+315
-115
0
1		-0.67425-0.67433-0.63792
Torino
Napoli		18.0%
65.5%		16.5%
+809
-230
+700
-260
0
1		-0.35773-0.37545-0.42372
Bologna
Udinese		32.0%
43.2%		24.8%
+250
+121
+225
+125
1
1		-1.25555-1.25836-1.39622
Sassuolo
Genoa		43.4%
33.4%		23.2%
+135
+209
+125
+215
2
2		-1.28706-1.28884-1.46162
Sampdoria
Cagliari		37.7%
37.9%		24.5%
+200
+150
+185
+150
1
3		-0.94338-0.96880-0.97141
Hellas Verona
Milan		21.1%
59.0%		19.9%
+500
-175
+450
-165
2
3		-0.48696-0.52101-0.52748
Inter
Lazio		43.1%
32.9%		24.0%
+133
+220
+130
+210
1
3		-1.19017-1.18159-1.11082
Salernitana
Spezia		24.3%
54.1%		21.6%
+280
+119
+260
+115
1
2		-0.79350-0.81482-0.61504
Milan
Atalanta		33.4%
43.8%		22.8%
+242
+115
+245
+115
3
2		-1.26065-1.28630-1.09596
Napoli
Fiorentina		47.5%
28.3%		24.2%
+100
+295
+100
+285
2
1		-0.71631-0.74156-0.74446
Spezia
Hellas Verona		26.4%
50.4%		23.2%
+500
-170
+470
-175
0
4		-0.49107-0.50340-0.68577
Udinese
Sampdoria		35.3%
38.9%		25.8%
+260
+130
+250
+120
3
3		-1.20728-1.21456-1.35666
Lazio
Bologna		57.4%
23.4%		19.2%
+130
+220
+130
+210
0
3		-1.19962-1.18159-1.45269
Inter
Sassuolo		58.3%
23.1%		18.6%
-160
+400
-150
+355
2
1		-0.51777-0.55930-0.53995
Juventus
Torino		68.8%
15.9%		15.3%
-105
+359
-110
+350
1
0		-0.69293-0.69021-0.37362
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks41-2-1 (0.375)0-1.16080 
Sportsbooks41-2-1 (0.375)0-1.18386 
DRatings41-2-1 (0.375)0-1.39114
-0.23034
-0.20728

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.