Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Mar 20, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Napoli
Bologna		57.5%
22.8%		19.6%
-120
+365
-120
+335
2
0		-0.63296-0.65427-0.55286
Inter
Atalanta		39.0%
37.7%		23.3%
+125
+220
+125
+215
0
0		-1.31505-1.31983-1.45758
Cagliari
Roma		19.6%
64.3%		16.2%
+818
-280
+810
-285
0
1		-0.33553-0.34969-0.44200
Hellas Verona
Sassuolo		33.0%
42.8%		24.2%
+200
+140
+220
+120
4
2		-1.12828-1.21456-1.10733
Udinese
Juventus		14.5%
68.4%		17.1%
+745
-235
+725
-250
0
2		-0.37818-0.38578-0.37984
Lazio
Salernitana		73.8%
12.7%		13.4%
-315
+1035
-315
+875
3
0		-0.29804-0.31821-0.30320
Torino
Sampdoria		32.3%
44.2%		23.4%
+115
+270
+135
+240
2
1		-0.79454-0.86810-1.12880
Bologna
Cagliari		36.1%
39.9%		24.0%
+145
+210
+140
+200
1
2		-1.16462-1.14599-0.91809
Fiorentina
Torino		43.9%
31.9%		24.2%
+140
+220
+145
+195
0
4		-1.18958-1.13075-1.14369
Lazio
Inter		28.1%
49.6%		22.3%
+808
-260
+725
-275
1
2		-0.34658-0.35954-0.70118
Salernitana
Hellas Verona		17.6%
64.1%		18.3%
+900
-295
+850
-320
2
1		-2.33408-2.30239-1.73864
Juventus
Roma		46.1%
30.6%		23.3%
+150
+202
+155
+210
4
3		-0.94987-0.96777-0.77358
Spezia
Genoa		31.6%
44.5%		23.9%
+250
+135
+260
+125
1
0		-1.27154-1.32475-1.15122
Atalanta
Udinese		59.1%
22.1%		18.8%
-125
+325

6
2		-0.63025-0.52662
Sampdoria
Napoli		20.0%
61.7%		18.4%
+775
-230
+760
-260
0
1		-0.38699-0.37330-0.48360
Napoli
Juventus		26.6%
49.9%		23.5%
+401
-125
+400
-125
1
1		-1.32343-1.29320-1.44868
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-2-0 (0.333)0-1.22530 
Sportsbooks31-2-0 (0.333)0-1.22816 
DRatings31-2-0 (0.333)0-1.26628
-0.04098
-0.03813

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.