Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lazio
Inter		22.9%
53.8%		23.3%
+490
-180
+475
-180
1
1		-1.53809-1.52468-1.45762
Cagliari
Sassuolo		22.5%
55.3%		22.2%
+198
+150
+185
+150
2
0		-1.12544-1.08806-1.49277
Milan
Torino		68.6%
13.5%		17.9%
+212
+153
+205
+150
1
3		-0.96090-0.96063-2.00389
Napoli
Fiorentina		50.9%
23.8%		25.3%
+265
+110
+246
+120
2
2		-1.28801-1.29189-1.37524
Roma
Atalanta		26.1%
51.7%		22.3%
+315
-114
+312
-115
1
2		-0.65942-0.66699-0.66058
Sassuolo
Genoa		45.0%
30.3%		24.7%
+221
+133
+205
+135
1
2		-0.87599-0.89678-1.19557
Torino
Hellas Verona		24.3%
51.2%		24.4%
+167
+225
+176
+195
2
1		-1.00876-1.04928-1.41375
Cagliari
Milan		9.9%
74.6%		15.5%
+443
-165
+430
-169
1
5		-0.50239-0.51058-0.29300
Bologna
Napoli		11.5%
71.5%		16.9%
+325
-104
+321
-105
2
0		-1.47338-1.47631-2.15978
Inter
Frosinone		85.8%
4.1%		10.1%
-125
+350
-128
+345
5
0		-0.61397-0.60690-0.15342
Napoli
Udinese		57.8%
18.7%		23.5%
-105
+315
-102
+290
1
1		-1.36090-1.34144-1.44626
Juventus
Roma		49.0%
26.5%		24.5%
+162
+199
+160
+192
1
1		-1.20221-1.17987-1.40609
Genoa
Milan		10.2%
74.2%		15.6%
+670
-230
+670
-250
3
3		-1.63594-1.64455-1.85758
Fiorentina
Hellas Verona		34.8%
36.4%		28.8%
+125
+260
+130
+243
1
2		-1.31041-1.27065-1.01189
Inter
Sassuolo		64.9%
15.9%		19.1%
-200
+520
-188
+470
0
1		-1.85937-1.78064-1.83778
Bologna
Torino		34.8%
39.5%		25.7%
+205
+178
+195
+187
0
0		-1.10803-1.09184-1.35915
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.