Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Feb 27, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Juventus
Roma		49.0%
26.5%		24.5%
+200
+165
+196
+161
3
3		-1.15967-1.17406-1.40609
Lazio
Torino		65.7%
15.3%		19.1%
+193
+195
+198
+190
0
2		-1.11249-1.10157-1.87895
Atalanta
Sassuolo		61.0%
19.3%		19.7%
+127
+245
+122
+275
1
2		-1.27122-1.33724-1.64356
Genoa
Inter		7.2%
80.0%		12.8%
+990
-300
+925
-325
0
2		-0.30472-0.31862-0.22319
Napoli
Hellas Verona		54.4%
21.3%		24.3%
-154
+585
-160
+565
2
1		-0.52629-0.52592-0.60903
Udinese
Bologna		36.0%
36.1%		27.9%
+357
-111
+350
-115
0
1		-0.67649-0.67160-1.01954
Napoli
Atalanta		27.9%
47.9%		24.2%
+228
+150
+222
+150
1
2		-0.95060-0.95925-0.73509
Torino
Genoa		31.8%
42.7%		25.5%
+275
+133
+265
+129
0
3		-0.88013-0.87160-0.85142
Lazio
Cagliari		64.8%
15.6%		19.5%
+154
+250
+150
+240
0
0		-1.08409-1.14797-1.63250
Hellas Verona
Sassuolo		30.1%
44.1%		25.8%
+440
-130
+450
-130
0
3		-0.60602-0.61508-0.81801
Roma
Napoli		30.8%
43.7%		25.4%
+242
+158
+235
+155
2
2		-1.07075-1.09497-1.36928
Bologna
Torino		34.8%
39.5%		25.7%
+146
+220
+140
+220
2
1		-0.93308-0.91722-1.05512
Sassuolo
Udinese		39.0%
34.0%		27.0%
+205
+167
+220
+155
2
1		-1.15024-1.20477-0.94192
Juventus
Inter		34.5%
37.9%		27.6%
+313
+104
+303
+105
2
3		-0.74769-0.75173-0.96982
Atalanta
Lazio		39.8%
35.1%		25.1%
+126
+252
+130
+238
2
0		-0.84996-0.87515-0.92120
Cagliari
Roma		11.8%
71.9%		16.3%
+725
-209
+700
-213
0
2		-0.42607-0.43314-0.33016
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.