Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Apr 19, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Juventus
Torino		76.3%
8.8%		14.8%
+106
+360
+100
+360
1
1		-1.13414-1.15941-1.90994
Atalanta
Udinese		65.9%
15.0%		19.1%
-155
+490
-160
+490
0
0		-1.39417-1.40141-1.65789
Lazio
Roma		34.6%
39.8%		25.6%
+217
+155
+210
+150
0
2		-0.96585-0.96551-0.92243
Udinese
Hellas Verona		28.7%
43.2%		28.1%
+157
+220
+150
+225
0
0		-1.13296-1.13884-1.27068
Napoli
Fiorentina		50.9%
23.8%		25.3%
+125
+267
+140
+250
3
0		-0.84669-0.90012-0.67491
Hellas Verona
Bologna		40.2%
33.0%		26.8%
+615
-185
+610
-195
3
2		-1.99945-2.00478-0.91118
Roma
Milan		28.8%
46.7%		24.5%
+233
+137
+225
+140
1
1		-1.19730-1.21019-1.40589
Fiorentina
Juventus		10.8%
71.4%		17.7%
+370
-107
+410
-115
2
2		-1.24726-1.22734-1.73048
Torino
Udinese		27.3%
46.7%		25.9%
+280
+132
+260
+130
2
2		-1.12578-1.13206-1.34965
Atalanta
Lazio		39.8%
35.1%		25.1%
+140
+235
+135
+220
1
1		-1.20771-1.22339-1.38095
Inter
Cagliari		74.8%
9.8%		15.4%
-258
+775
-250
+740
3
0		-0.36193-0.37320-0.29071
Udinese
Fiorentina		26.1%
46.9%		27.0%
+500
-165
+525
-175
2
1		-1.81880-1.87791-1.34423
Napoli
Genoa		64.2%
15.7%		20.1%
-145
+495
-140
+480
2
1		-0.55426-0.57197-0.44298
Bologna
Torino		34.8%
39.5%		25.7%
+145
+270
+145
+265
2
0		-0.92498-0.92857-1.05512
Milan
Hellas Verona		57.6%
19.6%		22.8%
-165
+475
-165
+455
1
0		-0.50894-0.50856-0.55224
Inter
Lazio		44.6%
29.9%		25.6%
+124
+245
+120
+255
6
0		-0.84067-0.82963-0.80822
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.