Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Feb 27, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Inter
Fiorentina		56.7%
22.8%		20.5%
-125
+360
-125
+325
3
1		-0.61995-0.64038-0.56771
Genoa
Bologna		34.9%
41.3%		23.8%
+385
-124
+335
-120
2
2		-1.33792-1.33268-1.43532
Napoli
Udinese		52.7%
24.3%		23.1%
-115
+355
-115
+335
4
0		-0.65395-0.67495-0.64131
Milan
Juventus		28.2%
48.3%		23.5%
+306
-105
+300
-110
1
1		-1.33670-1.33124-1.44898
Cagliari
Lazio		18.6%
64.8%		16.6%
+654
-195
+620
-240
2
2		-1.55391-1.61194-1.79565
Roma
Hellas Verona		49.2%
28.2%		22.6%
+120
+233
+120
+265
2
3		-1.23509-1.30885-1.26493
Atalanta
Salernitana		78.9%
10.8%		10.3%
-350
+1035
-380
+1000
1
0		-0.28336-0.28169-0.23647
Bologna
Inter		14.4%
72.5%		13.1%
+850
-280
+725
-285
1
6		-0.32742-0.35140-0.32175
Fiorentina
Genoa		42.8%
32.5%		24.7%
+122
+250
+120
+240
2
1		-0.83158-0.83455-0.84870
Torino
Sassuolo		27.9%
51.2%		20.9%
+345
-127
+330
-125
1
0		-1.52354-1.50860-1.27751
Hellas Verona
Bologna		40.1%
35.0%		24.9%
+250
+125
+225
+120
0
1		-0.82668-0.83529-1.04911
Cagliari
Milan		17.2%
67.0%		15.8%
+615
-190
+600
-215
1
4		-0.43521-0.42846-0.39997
Roma
Salernitana		73.8%
13.5%		12.8%
-200
+650
-210
+600
4
0		-0.42793-0.43841-0.30427
Sampdoria
Sassuolo		30.3%
47.4%		22.3%
+250
+110
+225
+120
0
0		-1.31987-1.29960-1.49928
Napoli
Genoa		57.7%
22.4%		19.9%
-155
+490
-170
+475
2
1		-0.51371-0.51478-0.55033
Torino
Fiorentina		27.1%
50.5%		22.4%
+312
-110
+300
-110
1
2		-0.67454-0.69693-0.68409
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks52-2-1 (0.500)0-0.99060 
Sportsbooks52-2-1 (0.500)0-1.01024 
DRatings52-2-1 (0.500)0-1.23683
-0.24623
-0.22659

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.