Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Mar 20, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Atalanta
Genoa		65.1%
20.6%		14.3%
-526
+1423
-445
+1125
4
3		-0.20449-0.25684-0.42897
Hellas Verona
Crotone		51.7%
25.9%		22.4%
-112
+320
-125
+310
1
2		-1.45132-1.45925-1.35097
Spezia
Sampdoria		29.4%
46.4%		24.2%
+176
+160
+180
+150
2
2		-1.01750-1.02294-0.99630
Parma
Lazio		16.8%
70.5%		12.7%
+964
-360
+960
-370
0
1		-0.27625-0.28635-0.34913
Milan
Torino		62.4%
21.2%		16.4%
-139
+380
-140
+365
7
0		-0.57526-0.58625-0.47157
Juventus
Sassuolo		60.4%
22.0%		17.6%
-150
+400
-150
+360
3
1		-0.53773-0.55956-0.50481
Genoa
Bologna		34.0%
40.3%		25.6%
+245
+120
+240
+120
2
0		-1.27204-1.26986-1.07772
Benevento
Atalanta		15.6%
73.5%		10.8%
+1600
-600
+1500
-650
0
2		-0.18332-0.19155-0.30756
Roma
Inter		27.4%
51.3%		21.2%
+450
-149
+385
-155
1
3		-0.51594-0.54867-0.66721
Fiorentina
Cagliari		42.5%
31.4%		26.1%
+245
+135
+235
+135
0
0		-1.07676-1.08230-1.00667
Udinese
Napoli		20.5%
60.2%		19.3%
+830
-275
+750
-300
1
5		-0.33290-0.33596-0.50765
Milan
Juventus		28.0%
48.0%		24.0%
+360
-130
+350
-130
3
0		-1.55694-1.55344-1.27368
Crotone
Roma		14.1%
77.0%		8.8%
+587
-240
+575
-250
0
5		-0.37788-0.38632-0.26081
Torino
Hellas Verona		28.6%
47.3%		24.1%
+150
+195
+135
+205
1
1		-1.02748-1.03539-1.00012
Cagliari
Benevento		34.7%
37.7%		27.6%
+165
+190
+130
+210
3
1		-0.99945-0.88312-1.05832
Atalanta
Parma		70.1%
17.8%		12.1%
-500
+1400
-500
+1150
5
2		-0.20702-0.23231-0.35542
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.