Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Mar 20, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Udinese
Genoa		36.2%
35.5%		28.3%
+142
+250
+140
+250
1
1		-0.80428-0.80875-0.69319
Fiorentina
Benevento		43.3%
29.9%		26.8%
+117
+270
+115
+260
4
1		-0.30262-0.30707-0.52476
Hellas Verona
Sassuolo		32.4%
41.9%		25.7%
+205
+154
+210
+140
2
3		-0.96100-0.92591-0.57245
Spezia
Atalanta		14.7%
76.1%		9.2%
+987
-335
+860
-350
1
3		-0.28235-0.29878-0.17681
Crotone
Lazio		13.4%
77.5%		9.1%
+1008
-335
+975
-360
2
3		-0.28790-0.29347-0.15963
Atalanta
Inter		31.9%
44.6%		23.5%
+275
+102
+275
+100
0
1		-0.43092-0.42745-0.53960
Bologna
Napoli		19.3%
65.5%		15.2%
+570
-182
+550
-205
1
3		-0.20803-0.20611-0.25777
Cagliari
Sampdoria		31.9%
42.9%		25.2%
+245
+120
+245
+120
2
2		-0.71824-0.71824-0.70399
Torino
Crotone		44.2%
31.4%		24.4%
+125
+240
+110
+270
2
4		-0.92073-1.01592-0.87753
Parma
Fiorentina		24.5%
54.1%		21.4%
+325
+100
+290
+105
3
3		-0.76254-0.74398-0.76940
Milan
Hellas Verona		52.5%
25.4%		22.2%
+155
+200
+125
+235
2
0		-0.61517-0.51381-0.39430
Genoa
Roma		20.3%
64.9%		14.8%
+700
-230
+575
-200
0
1		-0.16496-0.20067-0.27245
Lazio
Juventus		26.4%
50.8%		22.8%
+325
-111
+310
-110
1
3		-0.36967-0.38229-0.41869
Sassuolo
Udinese		38.2%
34.8%		27.0%
+235
+135
+220
+130
0
2		-0.53150-0.54159-0.74125
Benevento
Spezia		34.9%
36.9%		28.2%
+240
+125
+235
+110
1
1		-0.71430-0.72016-0.69352
Inter
Parma		73.1%
15.5%		11.4%
-365
+1050
-360
+950
2
1		-0.10507-0.11484-0.19195
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.