Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Cagliari
Inter		7.1%
80.3%		12.7%
+1700
-585
+1500
-530
2
2		-2.10579-2.06294-2.06712
Milan
Sassuolo		56.0%
21.9%		22.1%
-114
+310
-125
+325
3
3		-1.39344-1.41679-1.50815
Frosinone
Napoli		4.6%
84.1%		11.3%
+825
-300
+775
-300
2
2		-1.76615-1.75730-2.18178
Juventus
Torino		76.3%
8.8%		14.8%
+130
+285
+130
+270
0
0		-1.12609-1.12488-1.90994
Inter
Udinese		68.8%
12.4%		18.8%
-245
+740
-246
+700
2
1		-0.37302-0.38657-0.37381
Fiorentina
Juventus		10.8%
71.4%		17.7%
+432
-128
+433
-125
0
1		-0.60411-0.61234-0.33648
Genoa
Hellas Verona		25.3%
49.5%		25.2%
+207
+170
+210
+165
2
1		-1.15617-1.17183-1.37496
Atalanta
Cagliari		72.2%
11.9%		15.9%
-127
+385
-130
+377
1
2		-1.60405-1.59969-2.12972
Bologna
Frosinone		58.3%
18.9%		22.8%
-107
+328
-110
+320
0
0		-1.30885-1.29931-1.47990
Lazio
Roma		34.6%
39.8%		25.6%
+295
+110
+279
+115
0
1		-0.77831-0.80609-0.92243
Udinese
Sassuolo		26.8%
48.1%		25.2%
+168
+182
+165
+190
1
1		-1.23488-1.19726-1.38015
Hellas Verona
Cagliari		41.3%
31.6%		27.0%
+287
+120
+280
+115
1
1		-1.17736-1.20094-1.30800
Salernitana
Bologna		14.6%
66.3%		19.1%
+1200
-335
+1010
-350
0
3		-0.28650-0.28716-0.41125
Milan
Fiorentina		54.1%
22.0%		23.9%
+140
+205
+140
+200
2
1		-0.90929-0.92284-0.61402
Juventus
Lazio		46.6%
27.6%		25.8%
+143
+232
+145
+225
0
1		-1.23368-1.22044-1.28656
Atalanta
Napoli		38.7%
35.4%		25.9%
+250
+116
+240
+120
3
0		-1.28269-1.25369-0.95060
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.