MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for October 3, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Undecided Undecided
Dylan Cease
47.7%
52.3%




4.33
4.56
8.89


New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Undecided Undecided
Tobias Myers
42.9%
57.1%
+105
-115

+1½-180
-1½+160

4.01
4.75
8.76
o8+100
u8-120

Games for Oct 2, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
San Diego Padres (67-56)
53.2%
46.8%
+106
-116
+110
-115
+1½-205
-1½+185
+1½-200
-1½+186
7.26
o7+105
u6½+100
o6½-120
u6½+105
6th
BOT
2
5

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Tampa Bay Rays
Los Angeles Angels
51.7%
48.3%
-114
+104
-111
+108
-1½+133
+1½-150
-1½+139
+1½-155
4
2
-0.65243-0.64913-0.65981
Washington Nationals
San Francisco Giants
41.1%
58.9%
+175
-192
+181
-195
+1½-115
-1½-102
+1½-120
-1½+105
1
7
-0.44021-0.43072-0.52984
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
42.0%
58.0%
-110
+100
-106
+105
-1½+130
+1½-150
-1½+136
+1½-145
5
3
-0.67015-0.66680-0.86707
Seattle Mariners
Toronto Blue Jays
40.9%
59.1%
+108
-118
+109
-114
+1½-195
-1½+175
+1½-200
-1½+180
6
1
-0.75417-0.74828-0.89460
Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals
55.0%
45.0%
-134
+123
-132
+125
-1½+118
+1½-130
-1½+125
+1½-135
4
3
-0.57834-0.57725-0.59756
Los Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins
59.9%
40.1%
-166
+152
-160
+155
-1½-112
+1½-105
-1½-103
+1½-110
2
3
-0.94492-0.94358-0.91327
Chicago Cubs
San Diego Padres
38.3%
61.7%
+124
-135
+130
-133
+1½-172
-1½+152
+1½-165
-1½+155
5
1
-0.82716-0.83850-0.95990
Washington Nationals
San Francisco Giants
38.9%
61.1%
+171
-187
+180
-183
+1½-128
-1½+110
+1½-120
-1½+118
5
3
-1.01733-1.03339-0.94325
Tampa Bay Rays
Los Angeles Angels
57.4%
42.6%
-116
+106
-113
+107
-1½+140
+1½-160
-1½+145
+1½-160
6
4
-0.64392-0.64741-0.55528
Arizona Diamondbacks
Colorado Rockies
43.5%
56.5%
-165
+151
-158
+161
-1½-117
+1½+105
-1½-115
+1½+110
3
2
-0.49462-0.48591-0.83308
Oakland Athletics
Texas Rangers
58.1%
41.9%
+186
-205
+189
-200
+1½-105
-1½-109
+1½-110
-1½-103
4
3
-1.07236-1.07388-0.54239
Philadelphia Phillies
St. Louis Cardinals
49.5%
50.5%
-135
+124
-130
+124
-1½+130
+1½-148
-1½+131
+1½-150
0
3
-0.82716-0.81805-0.68399
Los Angeles Dodgers
Minnesota Twins
59.7%
40.3%
-182
+166
-177
+168
-1½-115
+1½-102
-1½-115
+1½+104
6
3
-0.45901-0.45991-0.51579
Houston Astros
Kansas City Royals
60.0%
40.0%
-115
+105
-106
+105
-1½+138
+1½-158
-1½+150
+1½-155
3
4
-0.74028-0.72021-0.91597
New York Mets
Atlanta Braves
46.5%
53.5%
+167
-183
+172
-180
+1½-128
-1½+110
+1½-120
-1½+110
5
6
-0.45692-0.45229-0.62483
Seattle Mariners
Toronto Blue Jays
39.5%
60.5%
-105
-105
+102
-107
+1½-212
-1½+182
+1½-216
-1½+190
3
5
-0.69315-0.67178-0.50324
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.80449 
Sportsbooks31-2 (0.333)0-0.81155 
DRatings32-1 (0.667)0-0.76663
0.03787
0.04492

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.