MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 5, 2026

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Jovani Moran
Framber Valdez
56.9%
43.1%
+138
-152
+158
-150
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-130
-1½+135
5.16
4.44
9.60
o8-110
u8+103
o8-115
u8+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Kevin Gausman
Drew Rasmussen
46.5%
53.5%
+115
-127
+113
-122
+1½-190
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+170
4.29
4.66
8.95
o7-119
u7+100
o7½+105
u7½-120
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Chris Bassitt
Sandy Alcantara
38.6%
61.4%
+128
-141
+125
-130
+1½-170
-1½+153
+1½-175
-1½+160
4.05
5.24
9.29
o8½-110
u8½-110
o8½-110
u8½-110
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Luis Severino
Cristopher Sanchez
49.2%
50.8%
+169
-188
+165
-180
+1½-125
-1½+110
+1½-130
-1½+110
5.95
6.03
11.98
o9-110
u9-110
o9-105
u8½+100
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Taj Bradley
Cade Cavalli
47.8%
52.2%
-109
-101
-109
+102

+1½-200
-1½+190
5.33
5.56
10.89
o9-113
u9-105
o9-105
u9-110
Texas Rangers (42-78)
New York Yankees (69-52)
Jacob deGrom
Elmer Rodriguez
42.0%
58.0%
+108
-119
+113
-115
+1½-191
-1½+166

4.83
5.67
10.50
o9+100
u8½+105
o8-110
u9-110
Volatility Bet Value Active
Volatility Bet Value Active
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Andrew Abbott
Jameson Taillon
51.6%
48.4%
+146
-161
+150
-157
+1½-150
-1½+140
+1½-152
-1½+140
4.63
4.46
9.09
o8-112
u8-105
o8-115
u8+100
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Gavin Williams
Stephen Kolek
49.3%
50.7%
-117
+106
-115
+107
-1½+140
+1½-160
-1½+145
+1½-156
4.42
4.50
8.92
o7½-105
u7½-115
o7½-110
u8-125
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Brandon Sproat
Andre Pallante
53.0%
47.0%
-105
-105
-102
-105

+1½-210
-1½+190
4.42
4.10
8.52
o7½-115
u8-120
o8+100
u8-110
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Shohei Ohtani
Peter Lambert
50.6%
49.4%
-220
+197
-210
+196
-1½-134
+1½+120
-1½-130
+1½+118
4.34
4.28
8.62
o8½-105
u8½-110
o8½+100
u8½-115
New York Mets (60-60)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Freddy Peralta
Michael Lorenzen
46.8%
53.2%
-155
+140
-155
+145
-1½-105
+1½-115
-1½-105
+1½-115
5.20
5.54
10.74
o9½-110
u9½-110
o9½-110
u10-110
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Erick Fedde
Sam Aldegheri
51.6%
48.4%
-101
-109
+100
-108
+1½-204
-1½+177

5.13
4.97
10.10
o9-105
u9-110
o9-110
u9-105
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Bubba Chandler
Eduardo Rodriguez
45.6%
54.4%
+122
-135
+122
-128
+1½-180
-1½+157
+1½-170
-1½+162
4.15
4.61
8.76
o9-108
u9-110
o9-110
u9-110
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Bryce Elder
George Kirby
52.7%
47.3%
+116
-128
+118
-127
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-170
-1½+165
4.81
4.52
9.33
o7½-110
u7½-110
o7½-105
u8-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
San Diego Padres (67-56)
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Walker Buehler
Logan Webb
48.3%
51.7%
+115
-127
+117
-125
+1½-185
-1½+165
+1½-185
-1½+170
4.14
4.32
8.46
o7½-105
u7½-110
o7½+100
u7½-115
Games for May 4, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
San Diego Padres
Chicago White Sox
44.5%
55.5%
-168
+152
-165
+156
-1½-105
+1½-115
-1½+100
+1½-114
3
2
-0.49043-0.48696-0.81076
Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins
34.0%
66.0%
-132
+120
-132
+126
-1½+120
+1½-137
-1½+120
+1½-130
2
6
-0.81171-0.82675-0.41486
Toronto Blue Jays
Kansas City Royals
56.9%
43.1%
-119
+108
-120
+112
-1½+135
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-150
8
5
-0.63380-0.62315-0.56393
Washington Nationals
New York Mets
43.4%
56.6%
+225
-249
+250
-255
+1½+120
-1½-135
+1½+120
-1½-125
3
2
-1.19962-1.25678-0.83425
Oakland Athletics
Pittsburgh Pirates
59.9%
40.1%
+107
-118
+107
-116
+1½-195
-1½+175
+1½-190
-1½+175
0
11
-0.63790-0.64162-0.91262
New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles
61.8%
38.2%
-123
+112
-128
+118
-1½+127
+1½-145
-1½+127
+1½-140
7
1
-0.61798-0.59724-0.48190
Atlanta Braves
Detroit Tigers
58.0%
42.0%
+102
-112
+106
-115
+1½-200
-1½+174
+1½-198
-1½+175
6
2
-0.72619-0.74282-0.54461
San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers
41.0%
59.0%
+215
-230
+205
-230
+1½+105
-1½-120
+1½+100
-1½-115
5
7
-0.37533-0.38554-0.52790
Los Angeles Angels
Colorado Rockies
46.9%
53.1%
-120
+109
-116
+111
-1½+120
+1½-137
-1½+130
+1½-140
3
0
-0.62978-0.63260-0.75624
Philadelphia Phillies
Arizona Diamondbacks
56.8%
43.2%
-104
-106
+102
-106
+1½-212
-1½+181
+1½-200
-1½+180
3
4
-0.68852-0.67401-0.83928
Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
53.0%
47.0%
-135
+122
-135
+125
-1½+117
+1½-130
-1½+117
+1½-135
3
2
-0.57893-0.57304-0.63426
San Diego Padres
Chicago White Sox
51.1%
48.9%
-175
+158
-175
+162
-1½-105
+1½-108
-1½-105
+1½-105
7
3
-0.47567-0.46988-0.67135
Toronto Blue Jays
Kansas City Royals
62.2%
37.8%
-125
+116
-128
+120
-1½+130
+1½-148
-1½+125
+1½-140
1
2
-0.78847-0.80428-0.97175
Seattle Mariners
Houston Astros
38.3%
61.7%
-106
-104
-104
-106

+1½-210
-1½+192
6
4
-0.68852-0.69780-0.96079
Cleveland Indians
Minnesota Twins
34.0%
66.0%
-102
-103
-106
+100
+1½-210
-1½+180

8
0
-0.69557-0.67889-1.08008
Miami Marlins
Texas Rangers
48.6%
51.4%
+131
-145
+133
-140
+1½-165
-1½+145
+1½-160
-1½+145
4
3
-0.86168-0.85830-0.72068
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks128-4 (0.667)0-0.61980 
Sportsbooks127-5 (0.583)0-0.63101 
DRatings129-3 (0.750)0-0.64696
-0.02716
-0.01595

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.