MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 25, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Houston Astros (70-50)
Undecided Undecided
Yusei Kikuchi
39.5%
60.5%




4.02
5.12
9.14


Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Javier Assad
Cristopher Sanchez
42.1%
57.9%
+165
-180
+167
-180
+1½-135
-1½+115
+1½-135
-1½+120
4.14
4.98
9.12
o8-115
u8-105
o8-115
u8-105
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
Freddy Peralta
Luis Ortiz
56.8%
43.2%
-146
+134
-142
+132
-1½+115
+1½-135
-1½+112
+1½-125
5.07
4.36
9.43
o7½-115
u7½-105
o7½-115
u7½-105
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Zack Littell
Keider Montero
58.4%
41.6%
+101
-111
+105
-115
+1½-215
-1½+185
+1½-200
-1½+180
4.63
3.75
8.38
o7½-115
u7½-105
o7½-110
u7½-105
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
Jakob Junis
Joey Cantillo
50.7%
49.3%
+129
-140
+132
-140

+1½-155
-1½+141
4.42
4.35
8.77
o8½+100
u8½-120
o8½+100
u8½-120
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Michael Lorenzen
DJ Herz
44.4%
55.6%




4.62
5.21
9.83


Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
New York Yankees (69-52)
Zach Eflin
Nestor Cortes
32.4%
67.6%

+124
-135

+1½-178
-1½+158
4.03
5.84
9.87

o7½-115
u7½-105
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Richard Fitts
Kevin Gausman
42.6%
57.4%
+122
-133
+125
-134
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-170
-1½+150
4.51
5.28
9.79
o7½-130
u7½+110
o8-110
u8-110
New York Mets (60-60)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
David Peterson
Chris Sale
44.1%
55.9%
+160
-175
+160
-173
+1½-145
-1½+125
+1½-140
-1½+125
4.10
4.73
8.83
o7½-105
u7½-115
o7½+100
u7½-115
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
Jose Suarez
Davis Martin
37.1%
62.9%
-112
+102
-112
+105

-1½+140
+1½-145
4.63
5.99
10.62
o8½+100
u8½-120
o8½+105
u8½-110
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Edward Cabrera
Simeon Woods-Richardson
44.8%
55.2%
+163
-178
+165
-175

+1½-130
-1½+117
4.63
5.18
9.81
o8-115
u8-105
o8-115
u8-105
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Erick Fedde
Austin Gomber
48.7%
51.3%
-128
+118
-124
+119
-1½+115
+1½-135
-1½+125
+1½-133
4.89
5.03
9.92
o10-115
u10-105
o10-115
u10+100
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Mason Black
Zac Gallen
55.5%
44.5%
+191
-212
+195
-210
+1½-120
-1½+100
+1½-113
-1½-105
4.00
3.43
7.43
o8½-115
u8½-105
o8½-105
u8½+100
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Cody Bradford
Brady Basso
35.8%
64.2%
-113
+103
-113
+105
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+140
+1½-159
4.53
6.02
10.55
o7½-110
u7½-110
o7½-110
u7½-105
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Dylan Cease
Jack Flaherty
36.0%
64.0%
+124
-135
+126
-130
+1½-180
-1½+160
+1½-173
-1½+155
3.48
4.94
8.42
o7½-115
u7½-105
o7½-115
u7½-105
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Sep 24, 2024
Games for Sep 26, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
44.8%
55.2%
+220
-248
+216
-240
+1½+102
-1½-120
+1½-105
-1½-110
9.81
o8-107
u8-110
o8-105
u8-110
FINAL
FINAL
4
1
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Houston Astros (70-50)
38.3%
61.7%
+119
-129
+125
-126
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-185
-1½+173
8.98
o7-110
u7-105
o7-105
u7-110
9th
TOP
3
4
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
48.8%
51.2%
-114
+104
-112
+105
-1½+125
+1½-145
-1½+135
+1½-145
9.89
o10½+107
u10-105
o10½+100
u10½-115
7th
TOP
3
3
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
41.9%
58.1%
-105
-105
-105
-101
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-165
10.09
o8½-110
u8½-108
o8-120
u8½-110
8th
TOP
2
0
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
58.9%
41.1%
+140
-153
+150
-150
+1½-160
-1½+140
+1½-159
-1½+140
8.30
o8-108
u8+100
o8½+105
u8½-115
3rd
BOT
7
0
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
35.8%
64.2%
-110
+100
-108
+100
-1½+150
+1½-170
-1½+150
+1½-165
10.50
o7½-112
u8-115
o7½-115
u7½+100
4th
TOP
1
3
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
38.8%
61.2%
+104
-114
+105
-112
+1½-195
-1½+175
+1½-195
-1½+175
8.94
o8½+105
u8½-115
o8-120
u8+100
2nd
TOP
0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
New York Yankees
Baltimore Orioles
66.6%
33.4%
-126
+116
-122
+116
-1½+130
+1½-150
-1½+131
+1½-150
4
1
-0.60453-0.61109-0.40632
Cleveland Indians
Tampa Bay Rays
39.0%
61.0%
+125
-136
+130
-133
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-170
-1½+155
0
2
-0.57167-0.56627-0.49377
Oakland Athletics
Philadelphia Phillies
49.2%
50.8%
+220
-228
+225
-240
+1½+115
-1½-130
+1½+115
-1½-128
6
2
-1.17073-1.19214-0.70934
Los Angeles Dodgers
Detroit Tigers
64.7%
35.3%
+137
-149
+135
-138
+1½-157
-1½+145
+1½-160
-1½+145
4
3
-0.88303-0.85977-0.43465
Atlanta Braves
Arizona Diamondbacks
66.2%
33.8%
-112
+102
-106
+101
-1½+140
+1½-160
-1½+155
+1½-170
0
1
-0.72619-0.71013-1.08489
Seattle Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
46.2%
53.8%
-160
+147
-152
+149
-1½-105
+1½-114
-1½+102
+1½-110
11
0
-0.50556-0.51033-0.77265
Miami Marlins
Houston Astros
36.9%
63.1%
+165
-180
+164
-165
+1½-127
-1½+110
+1½-125
-1½+120
3
6
-0.46185-0.47522-0.45986
Oakland Athletics
Boston Red Sox
45.5%
54.5%
+214
-240
+216
-230
+1½+115
-1½-130
+1½+115
-1½-120
0
7
-0.37237-0.37436-0.60717
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
47.1%
52.9%
-113
+103
-110
+103
-1½+145
+1½-165
-1½+150
+1½-167
4
5
-0.73091-0.72433-0.63665
Chicago Cubs
Baltimore Orioles
52.8%
47.2%
+116
-126
+119
-124
+1½-174
-1½+154
+1½-175
-1½+165
8
0
-0.79039-0.79405-0.63887
Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies
50.7%
49.3%
+139
-152
+137
-147
+1½-146
-1½+130
+1½-143
-1½+130
1
5
-0.52690-0.53589-0.70775
Toronto Blue Jays
San Francisco Giants
49.4%
50.6%
+113
-123
+114
-120
+1½-193
-1½+168
+1½-200
-1½+176
5
3
-0.77696-0.77347-0.70607
Pittsburgh Pirates
Milwaukee Brewers
31.5%
68.5%
-116
+106
-117
+108
-1½+143
+1½-163
-1½+141
+1½-155
1
0
-0.64392-0.63747-1.15445
Cleveland Indians
Detroit Tigers
47.2%
52.8%
+112
-121
+108
-114
+1½-180
-1½+170
+1½-190
-1½+175
1
10
-0.62140-0.64318-0.63938
Colorado Rockies
Cincinnati Reds
42.1%
57.9%
+178
-195
+176
-187
+1½-115
-1½-103
+1½-115
-1½+100
1
8
-0.43448-0.44217-0.54659
Washington Nationals
New York Mets
43.4%
56.6%
+129
-140
+132
-139
+1½-164
-1½+144
+1½-160
-1½+146
0
7
-0.55881-0.55453-0.56996
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks85-3 (0.625)0-0.60866 
Sportsbooks85-3 (0.625)0-0.60817 
DRatings82-6 (0.250)0-0.77978
-0.17112
-0.17161

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.