MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 27, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Jacob deGrom
Reid Detmers
39.3%
60.7%
-157
+146
-152
+143
-1½+110
+1½-120
-1½+105
+1½-115
4.91
6.03
10.94
o7-116
u7+100
o7½+100
u7½-120
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
San Diego Padres (67-56)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Yu Darvish
Merrill Kelly
62.6%
37.4%
+116
-125
+122
-127
+1½-175
-1½+165
+1½-175
-1½+160
4.44
3.14
7.58
o8½-120
u8½+105
o8½-120
u8½+105
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
JP Sears
Bryan Woo
52.8%
47.2%
+154
-168
+152
-161
+1½-147
-1½+135
+1½-150
-1½+135
4.79
4.50
9.29
o7½+105
u7+100
o7-120
u7½-120
Overall Bet Value Active
Overall Bet Value Active
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Miles Mikolas
Landen Roupp
40.0%
60.0%
+121
-131
+119
-126
+1½-183
-1½+170
+1½-185
-1½+170
3.63
4.69
8.32
o7-125
u7½-115
o7½+100
u7½-115
Games for Sep 26, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
New York Yankees (69-52)
32.4%
67.6%
+148
-162
+142
-152
+1½-144
-1½+125
+1½-146
-1½+130
9.42
o7½-110
u7½-105
o7½-110
u7½+100
8th
TOP
2
2
Miami Marlins (51-70)
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
38.7%
61.3%
+198
-220
+199
-210
+1½-103
-1½-115
+1½-110
-1½-105
9.31
o8½+100
u8+102
o8-110
u8-105
7th
TOP
10
5
Houston Astros (70-50)
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
55.9%
44.1%
+106
-116
+108
-118
+1½-197
-1½+175
+1½-192
-1½+175
8.37
o7½-115
u8½-107
o8-115
u8½-110
7th
BOT
5
0
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
54.9%
45.1%
+115
-114
+112
-114
+1½-185
-1½+172
+1½-190
-1½+175
10.45
o8-105
u8+100
o8-110
u8-110
9th
BOT
2
1
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
33.3%
66.7%
+170
-182
+165
-175
+1½-128
-1½+120
+1½-135
-1½+120
7.36
o7-122
u7½-120
o7½+105
u7½-120
9th
TOP
0
3
New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
42.9%
57.1%
-110
+100
-110
+104
-1½+147
+1½-167
-1½+150
+1½-165
8.58
o7½-110
u7½-110
o7½-115
u7½-105
3rd
BOT
2
5
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
60.8%
39.2%
-162
+149
-163
+155
-1½-117
+1½+100
-1½-118
+1½+105
10.16
o11-110
u11-105
o11-110
u11½-120
4th
TOP
6
1
Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
39.2%
60.8%
+133
-140
+133
-140
+1½-150
-1½+146
+1½-150
-1½+145
10.73
o8-110
u8-110
o8-110
u8-110
5th
TOP
2
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Chicago White Sox
Arizona Diamondbacks
61.5%
38.5%
+159
-174
+159
-170
+1½-130
-1½+110
+1½-133
-1½+120
5
12
-0.47499-0.47823-0.95514
Texas Rangers
Seattle Mariners
41.5%
58.5%
+130
-142
+134
-138
+1½-173
-1½+155
+1½-175
-1½+160
0
5
-0.55443-0.55217-0.53556
Los Angeles Angels
San Francisco Giants
41.3%
58.7%
+146
-159
+150
-149
+1½-140
-1½+120
+1½-140
-1½+130
6
13
-0.50811-0.51191-0.53346
Pittsburgh Pirates
Colorado Rockies
39.6%
60.4%
-107
-103
-105
+106
-1½+130
+1½-146
-1½+135
+1½-145
8
2
-0.68389-0.66668-0.92733
Oakland Athletics
Minnesota Twins
52.1%
47.9%
+186
-205
+190
-200
+1½-114
-1½-105
+1½-110
-1½+100
2
6
-0.41885-0.41690-0.73603
Detroit Tigers
Houston Astros
34.3%
65.7%
+148
-162
+151
-152
+1½-148
-1½+130
+1½-145
-1½+130
1
4
-0.50206-0.50713-0.42003
Cincinnati Reds
Milwaukee Brewers
44.0%
56.0%
+134
-146
+134
-141
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-157
-1½+140
4
5
-0.54235-0.54837-0.58053
San Diego Padres
New York Mets
48.7%
51.3%
-144
+132
-134
+130
-1½+125
+1½-140
-1½+125
+1½-140
6
11
-0.86254-0.84033-0.66662
Cleveland Indians
Toronto Blue Jays
39.7%
60.3%
+103
-113
+110
-115
+1½-205
-1½+175
+1½-200
-1½+180
6
7
-0.65676-0.63673-0.50514
Tampa Bay Rays
Atlanta Braves
48.7%
51.3%
+104
-114
+110
-120
+1½-190
-1½+170
+1½-180
-1½+165
8
6
-0.73560-0.76336-0.71920
Philadelphia Phillies
Baltimore Orioles
53.9%
46.1%
+125
-136
+126
-134
+1½-180
-1½+165
+1½-180
-1½+165
3
8
-0.57167-0.57251-0.77384
Miami Marlins
Washington Nationals
46.0%
54.0%
+108
-118
+110
-116
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-190
-1½+175
1
3
-0.63563-0.63482-0.61708
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago Cubs
48.8%
51.2%
+115
-125
+113
-118
+1½-167
-1½+150
+1½-165
-1½+150
2
1
-0.78592-0.76684-0.71707
Chicago White Sox
Arizona Diamondbacks
59.8%
40.2%
+151
-165
+154
-161
+1½-142
-1½+125
+1½-145
-1½+130
9
2
-0.94110-0.94266-0.51447
Kansas City Royals
Los Angeles Dodgers
32.0%
68.0%
+207
-232
+213
-227
+1½+102
-1½-120
+1½+105
-1½-120
7
2
-1.14592-1.15461-1.14031
Pittsburgh Pirates
Colorado Rockies
40.9%
59.1%
-160
+147
-158
+155
-1½-115
+1½-105
-1½-113
+1½-105
4
16
-0.92425-0.94063-0.52557
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks42-2 (0.500)0-0.68744 
Sportsbooks42-2 (0.500)0-0.68309 
DRatings41-3 (0.250)0-0.70833
-0.02089
-0.02524

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.