MLB Baseball Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 29, 2024

TimeTeamsPitchersWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
RunsTotal
Runs
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
St. Louis Cardinals (61-58)
San Francisco Giants (78-43)
Michael McGreevy
Hayden Birdsong
40.0%
60.0%
+110
-120
+110
-120
+1½-190
-1½+165
+1½-185
-1½+165
3.65
4.71
8.36
o8½+105
u8½-125
o8½+113
u8½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Philadelphia Phillies (61-59)
Washington Nationals (52-68)
Aaron Nola
Jake Irvin
56.1%
43.9%

-165
+150

-1½-102
+1½-116
4.62
3.98
8.60

o8+100
u8-120
Tampa Bay Rays (74-47)
Boston Red Sox (69-54)
Ryan Pepiot
Undecided Undecided
48.5%
51.5%

-114
-104

-1½+147
+1½-167
4.65
4.81
9.46

o8½-105
u8½-115
Pittsburgh Pirates (42-79)
New York Yankees (69-52)
Bailey Falter
Clarke Schmidt
34.4%
65.6%
+167
-183
+180
-178
+1½-133
-1½+113
+1½-130
-1½+115
3.84
5.47
9.31
o8½-105
u8½-115
o8½-105
u8½-115
Volatility Bet Value Active
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
Undecided Undecided
Jack Kochanowicz
39.3%
60.7%




4.88
6.01
10.89


Miami Marlins (51-70)
Toronto Blue Jays (63-56)
Ryan Weathers
Undecided Undecided
38.3%
61.7%




4.02
5.24
9.26


San Diego Padres (67-56)
Arizona Diamondbacks (40-81)
Martin Perez
Undecided Undecided
60.3%
39.7%




4.67
3.60
8.27


New York Mets (60-60)
Milwaukee Brewers (74-47)
Undecided Undecided
Undecided Undecided
42.9%
57.1%

-117
-101

-1½+144
+1½-164
4.01
4.75
8.76

o8-110
u8-110
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)
Colorado Rockies (55-66)
Undecided Undecided
Ryan Feltner
60.8%
39.2%




5.65
4.51
10.16


Houston Astros (70-50)
Cleveland Indians (58-61)
Undecided Undecided
Undecided Undecided
55.9%
44.1%

+162
-182

+1½-139
-1½+119
4.47
3.86
8.33

o7½-110
u7½-110
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
Mitch Spence
Logan Gilbert
52.8%
47.2%
+151
-165
+152
-162
+1½-150
-1½+130
+1½-148
-1½+130
5.06
4.76
9.82
o7½-105
u7½-115
o7½-105
u7½-115
Chicago White Sox (71-50)
Detroit Tigers (58-64)
Jonathan Cannon
Undecided Undecided
57.8%
42.2%




4.96
4.14
9.10


Baltimore Orioles (38-81)
Minnesota Twins (54-67)
Albert Suarez
Bailey Ober
39.2%
60.8%

+148
-167

+1½-149
-1½+129
4.68
5.81
10.49

o7½-110
u7½-110
Cincinnati Reds (65-57)
Chicago Cubs (54-69)
Hunter Greene
Undecided Undecided
51.6%
48.4%

-119
+101

-1½+142
+1½-162
4.27
4.09
8.36

o7-120
u7+100
Kansas City Royals (52-67)
Atlanta Braves (65-56)
Undecided Undecided
Undecided Undecided
38.5%
61.5%




3.96
5.17
9.13


Games for Sep 28, 2024
Games for Sep 30, 2024

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %
Closing
ML
Closing
Spread
Orig. Total
Runs
Closing
O/U
PeriodCurrent
Score
Texas Rangers (42-78)
Los Angeles Angels (61-61)
40.5%
59.5%
-138
+127
-136
+129
-1½+110
+1½-130
-1½+122
+1½-135
10.40
o8-114
u8-106
o8-110
u8½-115
6th
TOP
3
7
Oakland Athletics (68-53)
Seattle Mariners (65-56)
52.8%
47.2%
+133
-145
+137
-140
+1½-164
-1½+144
+1½-164
-1½+160
9.66
o7½-117
u7½-103
o7½-105
u7½-110
6th
TOP
3
3

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinBest
ML
Best
Spread
Final
Runs
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
33.3%
66.7%
+230
-250
+227
-250
+1½+115
-1½-128
+1½+110
-1½-128
0
4
-0.35364-0.35636-0.40528
New York Yankees
San Francisco Giants
47.1%
52.9%
-129
+121
-130
+124
-1½+118
+1½-130
-1½+125
+1½-135
7
5
-0.58960-0.58212-0.75377
Cincinnati Reds
Chicago Cubs
51.6%
48.4%
+112
-122
+114
-117
+1½-205
-1½+175
+1½-190
-1½+175
5
2
-0.77245-0.76725-0.66231
San Diego Padres
Kansas City Royals
54.3%
45.7%
+120
-130
+118
-121
+1½-175
-1½+157
+1½-178
-1½+160
3
4
-0.59012-0.60859-0.78301
Chicago White Sox
Milwaukee Brewers
51.2%
48.8%
+286
-310
+297
-330
+1½+138
-1½-145
+1½+145
-1½-160
3
6
-0.29464-0.28384-0.71773
Texas Rangers
Miami Marlins
50.6%
49.4%
-121
+111
-120
+112
-1½+132
+1½-150
-1½+135
+1½-150
6
0
-0.62358-0.62315-0.68031
Washington Nationals
Cleveland Indians
46.8%
53.2%
+127
-126
+120
-122
+1½-160
-1½+153
+1½-175
-1½+160
5
2
-0.81783-0.79255-0.75892
Arizona Diamondbacks
New York Mets
37.9%
62.1%
-108
-102
-105
-103
-1½+152
+1½-172
-1½+155
+1½-170
5
4
-0.67930-0.68844-0.97125
Pittsburgh Pirates
Toronto Blue Jays
32.9%
67.1%
+156
-165
+159
-170
+1½-139
-1½+125
+1½-135
-1½+119
4
5
-0.48696-0.47823-0.39896
Oakland Athletics
Atlanta Braves
46.9%
53.1%
+223
-250
+213
-234
+1½+110
-1½-128
+1½+110
-1½-122
1
3
-0.36008-0.37571-0.63335
Detroit Tigers
Boston Red Sox
35.8%
64.2%
+140
-149
+140
-149
+1½-152
-1½+140
+1½-145
-1½+135
8
4
-0.89040-0.89040-1.02786
Tampa Bay Rays
Baltimore Orioles
61.5%
38.5%
+127
-124
+117
-122
+1½-165
-1½+160
+1½-175
-1½+160
4
3
-0.81387-0.78504-0.48617
Minnesota Twins
Houston Astros
38.5%
61.5%
+138
-144
+139
-148
+1½-156
-1½+150
+1½-155
-1½+140
4
3
-0.87738-0.88637-0.95472
Cincinnati Reds
Chicago Cubs
51.6%
48.4%
+127
-138
+127
-133
+1½-175
-1½+155
+1½-180
-1½+165
5
7
-0.56518-0.57197-0.72497
Colorado Rockies
Los Angeles Dodgers
33.3%
66.7%
+254
-290
+270
-299
+1½+117
-1½-135
+1½+125
-1½-135
1
4
-0.32201-0.30797-0.40528
New York Yankees
San Francisco Giants
48.7%
51.3%
-104
-106
+100
-105
+1½-215
-1½+185
+1½-210
-1½+184
7
3
-0.69780-0.70528-0.71879
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks135-8 (0.385)0-0.77018 
Sportsbooks135-8 (0.385)0-0.76881 
DRatings138-5 (0.615)0-0.67432
0.09586
0.09449

Season Simulation

 Regular SeasonPostseason
#TeamWLMake PlayoffsWin DivisionWin Conf.Conf. Champ.World Series

Predictions Methodology

Here we use computer estimates from the Inference Index to predict future Major League baseball games. We use previous score and pitcher data to best attempt to estimate the results of each game. The predictions do not account for injuries, or any other factors that may cause the outcome to be swayed in one direction or another. There is a lot of randomness, particularly in baseball, so there will always be some error in the prediction.

Beginning in the 2014 season, we have begun including probable starting pitcher into the calculation. If there is a late change in the starting pitcher for a team and it is not reflected below then the projections will not be an accurate assessment on the game. The current projection system for Major League Baseball games is at Level 3, our highest level of analysis. The Predictor should be used for entertainment purposes only.