Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

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Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
09/18/2021 02:30 PM	Fortuna Sittard Heerenveen	28.2% 49.8%	21.9%	+350 -122 +360 -140	0 1	-0.62019-0.58848	-0.69627
08/29/2021 02:45 PM	AZ Alkmaar Heerenveen	54.6% 24.6%	20.8%	-110 +305 -110 +280	3 1	-0.67995-0.69555	-0.60508
08/29/2021 12:30 PM	Vitesse Ajax	17.2% 66.5%	16.3%	+1800 -667 +1400 -625	0 5	-0.16171-0.19716	-0.40806
08/29/2021 10:15 AM	Feyenoord Utrecht	44.7% 31.7%	23.6%	+171 +155 +155 +160	1 3	-0.97061-1.00501	-1.14747
08/28/2021 07:00 PM	Zwolle Willem II	34.7% 41.7%	23.6%	+320 -110 +315 -115	0 1	-0.67480-0.67433	-0.87354
08/28/2021 06:00 PM	Groningen PSV Eindhoven	24.3% 54.0%	21.7%	+1116 -345 +950 -360	2 5	-0.27843-0.29558	-0.61585
08/27/2021 06:00 PM	RKC Waalwijk Fortuna Sittard	26.3% 52.0%	21.8%	+348 -122 +330 -130	2 2	-1.39934-1.43297	-1.52464
08/22/2021 02:45 PM	Willem II Vitesse	23.1% 57.1%	19.8%	+301 -115 +325 -120	3 0	-1.41948-1.49326	-1.46651
08/22/2021 10:15 AM	Ajax Twente	71.4% 14.7%	13.9%	-400 +939 -390 +1000	1 1	-1.93371-1.87158	-1.97026
08/21/2021 07:00 PM	Utrecht Groningen	34.5% 39.8%	25.7%	+108 +255 +115 +225	0 0	-1.31628-1.33025	-1.35732
08/21/2021 06:00 PM	Heracles Almelo Sparta Rotterdam	37.5% 38.2%	24.4%	+300 +105 +270 +105	1 1	-1.27604-1.27461	-1.41145
08/21/2021 04:45 PM	RKC Waalwijk Heerenveen	20.3% 61.0%	18.8%	+514 -164 +450 -165	2 3	-0.49259-0.52388	-0.49477
08/15/2021 02:45 PM	Feyenoord Willem II	56.8% 23.5%	19.8%	-161 +420 -165 +425	4 0	-0.52930-0.52106	-0.56614
08/15/2021 12:30 PM	Vitesse Zwolle	51.4% 27.0%	21.6%	+138 +196 +115 +230	1 0	-0.90989-0.81410	-0.66522
08/15/2021 12:30 PM	Sparta Rotterdam Utrecht	27.9% 51.0%	21.2%	+500 -169 +475 -165	0 4	-0.50233-0.52231	-0.67415
08/14/2021 06:00 PM	Twente Fortuna Sittard	40.3% 35.8%	23.9%	+136 +205 +135 +190	1 2	-1.14942-1.11544	-1.02809

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	2	1-1-0 (0.500)	0	-0.99440
Sportsbooks	2	0-0-0 (0.500)	2
DRatings	2	2-0-0 (1.000)	0	-0.60590	0.38850

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)	18.0	5.0	2.0	56.0	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
3	Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)	14.0	3.0	8.0	50.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
4	PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)	14.0	5.0	7.0	49.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
5	Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)	13.0	8.0	5.0	44.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
6	Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)	12.0	8.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)	12.0	9.0	5.0	41.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)	10.0	10.0	6.0	36.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)	10.0	11.0	5.0	35.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)	8.0	9.0	9.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)	9.0	11.0	6.0	33.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)	9.0	12.0	5.0	32.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)	8.0	14.0	4.0	28.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)	7.0	13.0	6.0	27.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)	7.0	14.0	5.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
16	Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)	6.0	12.0	8.0	26.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
17	ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)	4.0	15.0	7.0	19.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
18	RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)	4.0	19.0	3.0	15.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.