Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Zwolle
Heerenveen		28.2%
49.5%		22.3%
+265
-101
+260
-105
2
0		-1.32332-1.33272-1.26581
RKC Waalwijk
Willem II		25.5%
52.7%		21.7%
+345
-123
+285
-110
0
1		-0.63038-0.69904-0.63989
Utrecht
Ajax		15.4%
73.7%		11.0%
+534
-224
+575
-230
1
1		-1.15144-1.18331-1.08924
Ajax
RKC Waalwijk		82.0%
7.6%		10.4%
-588
+1400
-600
+1400
1
0		-0.19636-0.20181-0.19813
PSV Eindhoven
VVV-Venlo		62.9%
20.6%		16.5%
-435
+1100
-395
+950
2
0		-0.24544-0.27752-0.46383
Heerenveen
Groningen		31.5%
42.9%		25.5%
+216
+133
+220
+125
2
0		-1.18545-1.21295-1.15442
Feyenoord
Utrecht		44.7%
31.7%		23.6%
+221
+115
+195
+130
2
1		-1.20597-1.12843-0.80547
Twente
Zwolle		40.3%
35.9%		23.8%
+142
+200
+140
+195
0
1		-1.13277-1.13038-1.02365
Emmen
Fortuna Sittard		24.9%
55.1%		20.0%
+202
+135
+200
+135
3
1		-1.15072-1.14621-1.38962
Sparta Rotterdam
AZ Alkmaar		17.0%
68.0%		15.0%
+540
-204
+510
-205
0
2		-0.43434-0.44715-0.38528
Willem II
Heracles Almelo		31.1%
45.0%		23.9%
+239
+125
+250
+110
0
4		-0.83340-0.78845-0.79800
ADO Den Haag
Vitesse		14.2%
71.1%		14.6%
+1250
-417
+1200
-450
0
0		-1.44486-1.43062-1.14483
RKC Waalwijk
Emmen		35.6%
37.1%		27.3%
+260
+106
+250
+105
1
3		-0.76140-0.76787-0.99258
Ajax
Heerenveen		70.6%
16.8%		12.6%
-476
+1200
-425
+1000
2
1		-0.22966-0.25874-0.34871
Heracles Almelo
PSV Eindhoven		20.7%
63.1%		16.2%
+900
-286
+800
-285
0
3		-0.32868-0.35085-0.46108
Utrecht
ADO Den Haag		62.4%
20.9%		16.7%
-370
+1000
-285
+760
4
1		-0.27691-0.35022-0.47173
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-1-0 (0.500)0-0.99440 
Sportsbooks20-0-0 (0.500)2 
DRatings22-0-0 (1.000)0-0.60590
0.38850

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.