Netherlands Eredivisie Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
AZ Alkmaar
Sparta Rotterdam		68.9%
13.3%		17.7%
+105
+280
+100
+270
1
1		-1.29909-1.31759-1.73076
Twente
Vitesse		20.6%
57.1%		22.4%
-140
+375
-140
+350
2
1		-0.57608-0.58727-1.58158
Ajax
AZ Alkmaar		50.9%
24.7%		24.3%
+290
-110
+290
-115
0
2		-0.68516-0.67548-1.39675
PSV Eindhoven
Zwolle		69.2%
13.5%		17.3%
-460
+1060
-450
+1000
7
1		-0.24127-0.24941-0.36833
Fortuna Sittard
RKC Waalwijk		48.0%
27.1%		24.9%
+190
+160
+195
+150
1
0		-1.10579-1.13202-0.73474
Heracles Almelo
Utrecht		25.0%
50.6%		24.4%
+715
-270
+680
-265
0
1		-0.36245-0.37111-0.68148
RKC Waalwijk
Feyenoord		6.5%
80.9%		12.6%
+1800
-800
+2000
-1000
0
1		-0.16350-0.14385-0.21249
Utrecht
Twente		41.6%
32.6%		25.8%
+400
-150
+395
-150
1
0		-1.65821-1.65010-0.87717
AZ Alkmaar
Fortuna Sittard		71.7%
11.6%		16.7%
-126
+390
-120
+375
2
1		-0.63047-0.65502-0.33222
Heracles Almelo
PSV Eindhoven		13.0%
69.2%		17.8%
+2200
-1200
+2000
-1350
0
2		-0.12939-0.12285-0.36792
Sparta Rotterdam
Feyenoord		13.2%
69.3%		17.5%
+1175
-480
+1050
-460
0
2		-0.23317-0.24669-0.36736
Fortuna Sittard
Utrecht		19.5%
59.5%		21.0%
+450
-158
+410
-145
0
4		-0.53976-0.57433-0.51861
Ajax
Heerenveen		76.1%
9.1%		14.8%
-110
+248
-120
+265
2
3		-1.28826-1.34542-2.39437
Vitesse
Heracles Almelo		47.6%
26.9%		25.5%
+228
+125
+240
+110
2
3		-0.84537-0.79264-1.31449
Zwolle
Sparta Rotterdam		30.0%
45.5%		24.4%
+360
-125
+320
-115
2
0		-1.57190-1.48457-1.20261
Feyenoord
AZ Alkmaar		25.7%
49.6%		24.7%
-165
+450
-165
+435
1
0		-0.51547-0.52307-1.35837
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Ajax (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.0100.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2AZ Alkmaar (18-5-2, 56 pts)18.05.02.056.00.0%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Feyenoord (14-3-8, 50 pts)14.03.08.050.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4PSV Eindhoven (14-5-7, 49 pts)14.05.07.049.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
5Willem II (13-8-5, 44 pts)13.08.05.044.00.0%0.0%100.0%0.0%
6Utrecht (12-8-5, 41 pts)12.08.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
7Vitesse (12-9-5, 41 pts)12.09.05.041.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
8Heracles Almelo (10-10-6, 36 pts)10.010.06.036.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
9Groningen (10-11-5, 35 pts)10.011.05.035.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Heerenveen (8-9-9, 33 pts)8.09.09.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Sparta Rotterdam (9-11-6, 33 pts)9.011.06.033.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Emmen (9-12-5, 32 pts)9.012.05.032.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13VVV-Venlo (8-14-4, 28 pts)8.014.04.028.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Twente (7-13-6, 27 pts)7.013.06.027.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Zwolle (7-14-5, 26 pts)7.014.05.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Fortuna Sittard (6-12-8, 26 pts)6.012.08.026.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17ADO Den Haag (4-15-7, 19 pts)4.015.07.019.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
18RKC Waalwijk (4-19-3, 15 pts)4.019.03.015.00.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%

Predictions Methodology

While the regular season for the Eredivisie of the Netherlands is rather standard, the league has a rather unique end of season set up. The league consists of 18 teams that play a home-and-home series against every other team in the league to create a 34 game season. At the end of the regular season, the top four teams qualify for either the Champions League or Europa League. The fifth through eighth place teams then go into a playoff to determine who wins the last Europa league qualification spot. Relegation is just as interesting. The team at the bottom of the league is automatically relegated, while the teams seeded at fifteen and sixteen join a playoff that includes eight teams from the second division. The top two teams at the end of this playoff win entry into the top division.