Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedTondela
Sporting CP 		7.3%
77.5%		15.2%


0.59
2.39		2.98


Moreirense
Porto 		7.1%
78.5%		14.4%
+1400
-417
+1425
-500
0.61
2.49		3.10
o2½-120
u2¾-129

Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Belenenses
Boavista		31.5%
39.0%		29.5%

+270
+120
0
0		-1.16648-1.22129
Braga
Gil Vicente FC		61.1%
19.7%		19.2%
-135
+375
-140
+400
1
0		-0.60135-0.58780-0.49274
Moreirense
Sporting CP		17.8%
62.8%		19.5%
+1435
-500
+1450
-500
0
1		-0.22522-0.23274-0.46553
Porto
Tondela		72.5%
11.7%		15.8%
-435
+1162
-400
+1000
3
1		-0.25720-0.27279-0.32154
Famalicao
Santa Clara		34.7%
39.6%		25.7%
+175
+165
+175
+165
2
0		-1.05734-1.05912-1.05878
Maritimo
Vitoria		23.5%
52.5%		24.0%
+600
-202
+600
-200
1
2		-0.45574-0.45751-0.64382
Boavista
Braga		15.4%
68.0%		16.6%
+740
-273
+740
-260
2
2		-1.63455-1.60864-1.79517
Portimonense
Benfica		12.6%
71.2%		16.2%
+1360
-476
+1450
-500
1
0		-2.73137-2.79116-2.06997
Tondela
Belenenses		31.8%
38.6%		29.6%
+165
+170
+170
+170
2
0		-1.02318-1.04055-1.14677
Pacos
Porto		15.5%
67.4%		17.1%
+1064
-370
+1300
-450
1
2		-0.28406-0.24909-0.39503
Vitoria
Famalicao		45.3%
30.5%		24.2%
+172
+165
+175
+150
2
1		-1.04322-1.05976-0.79169
Moreirense
Maritimo		36.8%
35.1%		28.0%
+231
+130
+255
+115
0
0		-1.23306-1.24258-1.27211
Belenenses
Pacos		23.7%
50.7%		25.6%
+425
-125
+390
-120
2
2		-1.26525-1.24514-1.36102
Braga
Santa Clara		57.8%
21.7%		20.5%
-107
+310
-105
+300
1
1		-1.29825-1.28910-1.58314
Famalicao
Tondela		40.4%
33.7%		25.9%
-104
+292
-105
+285
2
3		-1.41940-1.39659-1.08827
Benfica
Vitoria		46.8%
28.9%		24.3%
-141
+405
-165
+425
3
1		-0.57862-0.52374-0.75971
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11816 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.11541 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.59909
-0.48093
-0.48368

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).