Portugal Primeira Liga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Benfica
Famalicao 		67.0%
14.3%		18.7%
-172
+430

2.25
0.93		3.18
o2¾-108
u2¾-110

Games for May 1, 2026
Games for May 3, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Belenenses
SC Farense		33.2%
35.4%		31.3%
+227
+152
+225
+155
1
0		-0.47268-0.46718-0.72565
Maritimo
Nacional		35.2%
33.3%		31.5%
+166
+197
+160
+200
2
1		-0.39195-0.38136-0.66651
Vitoria
Braga		25.6%
52.4%		22.1%
+450
-160
+475
-175
0
3		-0.25886-0.24160-0.39757
Benfica
Belenenses		65.0%
17.5%		17.5%
-270
+825
-260
+800
3
0		-0.13815-0.14310-0.23803
SC Farense
Rio Ave		25.2%
49.5%		25.3%
+329
-106
+330
-105
0
2		-0.37363-0.37434-0.41155
Moreirense
Maritimo		35.5%
33.9%		30.7%
+220
+142
+210
+140
2
0		-0.84255-0.82929-0.66992
Famalicao
Boavista		37.1%
34.5%		28.4%
+227
+144
+235
+135
0
3		-0.55743-0.53150-0.73135
Porto
Gil Vicente FC		73.3%
13.9%		12.8%
-263
+750
-245
+750
2
0		-0.15047-0.15330-0.17344
Tondela
Portimonense		32.8%
35.5%		31.7%
+345
-105
+350
-115
0
3		-0.36376-0.34745-0.65443
Santa Clara
Sporting CP		17.0%
66.8%		16.2%
+808
-200
+800
-240
1
2		-0.15288-0.14618-0.22683
Nacional
Pacos		23.7%
52.1%		24.2%
+435
-132
+450
-145
1
2		-0.28406-0.26789-0.37514
Belenenses
Moreirense		26.6%
45.1%		28.3%
+190
+176
+190
+170
2
2		-0.69346-0.69378-0.72734
Rio Ave
Benfica		19.3%
62.5%		18.2%
+683
-238
+850
-300
0
2		-0.16668-0.13133-0.26912
Braga
Nacional		65.4%
18.3%		16.3%
-185
+510
-190
+525
2
1		-0.22517-0.21850-0.24619
Gil Vicente FC
Tondela		34.6%
34.1%		31.3%
+155
+195
+150
+200
0
1		-0.76867-0.78847-0.69967
Maritimo
Portimonense		36.9%
31.9%		31.2%
+350
+105
+350
-110
0
0		-0.76850-0.78237-0.69578
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.46510 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.44669 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.88658
0.57852
0.56011

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 01/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Sporting CP (12-0-3, 39 pts)21.54.67.972.429.6%67.2%31.7%0.0%
2Porto (11-2-2, 35 pts)23.15.05.975.256.8%85.1%14.7%0.0%
3Benfica (10-2-3, 33 pts)20.65.97.569.311.5%38.1%58.9%0.0%
4Braga (10-5-0, 30 pts)19.99.54.664.32.0%9.3%74.6%0.0%
5Pacos (8-3-4, 28 pts)14.010.69.451.30.0%0.0%4.1%0.0%
6Vitoria (8-4-2, 26 pts)16.110.37.655.90.1%0.3%15.5%0.0%
7Moreirense (4-5-6, 18 pts)10.512.411.142.50.0%0.0%0.2%2.2%
8Santa Clara (5-7-3, 18 pts)11.014.58.441.50.0%0.0%0.1%3.0%
9Maritimo (5-8-2, 17 pts)10.716.07.239.40.0%0.0%0.0%6.2%
10Belenenses (3-6-6, 15 pts)8.414.411.236.30.0%0.0%0.0%16.0%
12Portimonense (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.017.08.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%25.1%
13Tondela (4-8-3, 15 pts)9.316.68.136.10.0%0.0%0.0%20.6%
14Nacional (3-7-5, 14 pts)7.916.010.133.80.0%0.0%0.0%31.6%
15Famalicao (3-7-5, 14 pts)10.013.410.640.60.0%0.0%0.1%4.8%
16Gil Vicente FC (3-8-4, 13 pts)9.015.99.236.00.0%0.0%0.0%18.1%
17SC Farense (3-8-3, 12 pts)8.317.68.232.90.0%0.0%0.0%37.0%
18Boavista (1-6-8, 11 pts)6.813.713.633.90.0%0.0%0.0%32.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Portuguese Liga (Primeira Liga) consists of 18 teams. As with many other European leagues, teams progress throughout the season using the process of promotion and relegation, with the two lowest teams relegated to Segunda Liga, and the two highest teams moving up to join the Primeira Liga. The league became official in 1938, after four years as an experimental league, and has since improved its reputation within the UEFA (Union of European Football Associations).