Sweden Allsvenskan Predictions

Updated 4 hr ago

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Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
07/12/2021 05:00 PM	Hacken Kalmar	52.1% 24.0%	23.9%	+165 +189 +170 +180	3 2	-0.99973-1.04214	-0.65214
07/11/2021 03:30 PM	Göteborg Ostersund	45.2% 28.6%	26.2%	+136 +215 +125 +225	3 2	-0.89253-0.86034	-0.79383
07/05/2021 05:00 PM	Elfsborg Göteborg	42.1% 31.7%	26.3%	+180 +162 +165 +170	1 0	-1.06627-1.02407	-0.86538
07/04/2021 01:00 PM	AIK Stockholm Hacken	29.7% 42.2%	28.0%	+255 +113 +240 +120	1 2	-0.80292-0.83884	-0.86164
05/23/2021 01:00 PM	Hammarby Kalmar	54.7% 25.0%	20.3%	+147 +195 +140 +190	1 2	-1.12763-1.11480	-1.38814
05/22/2021 03:30 PM	Sirius Ostersund	40.6% 32.6%	26.8%	+156 +174 +165 +170	0 3	-1.05243-1.04276	-1.12021
05/17/2021 04:30 PM	AIK Stockholm Ostersund	50.1% 25.4%	24.5%	-122 +375 -125 +370	2 1	-0.63433-0.63660	-0.69071
05/17/2021 04:30 PM	Sirius Göteborg	30.2% 44.5%	25.3%	+355 -130 +360 -130	2 2	-1.09255-1.09641	-1.00356
05/12/2021 04:30 PM	Göteborg Kalmar	42.5% 30.0%	27.5%	+185 +174 +190 +170	0 0	-1.06837-1.07636	-1.02982
05/12/2021 04:30 PM	Elfsborg Sirius	48.3% 28.6%	23.1%	+147 +210 +140 +210	2 0	-0.91330-0.92591	-0.72817
05/08/2021 03:30 PM	Kalmar Elfsborg	20.7% 61.2%	18.2%	+295 +108 +320 +100	2 2	-1.08072-1.11348	-1.03398
05/08/2021 01:00 PM	Hacken Göteborg	40.8% 31.1%	28.1%	+159 +183 +160 +170	1 1	-1.04203-1.03077	-1.03240
05/08/2021 01:00 PM	Sirius Hammarby	24.8% 56.6%	18.5%	+464 -167 +385 -130	2 3	-0.51094-0.62228	-0.56849
05/02/2021 03:30 PM	Elfsborg AIK Stockholm	37.0% 34.7%	28.2%	+215 +131 +220 +130	0 1	-0.88496-0.88201	-1.05760
05/01/2021 03:30 PM	Hacken Hammarby	33.9% 39.9%	26.2%	+215 +125 +215 +125	1 1	-1.02569-1.02569	-0.99972
05/01/2021 01:00 PM	Kalmar Sirius	29.7% 44.7%	25.6%	+193 +161 +195 +160	1 1	-1.06313-1.06884	-1.01007

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	2	1-0-1 (0.750)	0	-1.16980
Sportsbooks	2	0-0-1 (0.750)	2
DRatings	2	0-1-1 (0.250)	0	-1.59703	-0.42724

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 07/06/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Norrkoping (5-0-1, 16 pts)	5.0	0.0	1.0	16.0	100.0%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Sirius (3-1-2, 11 pts)	3.0	1.0	2.0	11.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
3	Varberg (3-2-1, 10 pts)	3.0	2.0	1.0	10.0	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%
4	Hacken (2-0-4, 10 pts)	2.0	0.0	4.0	10.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Elfsborg (2-0-4, 10 pts)	2.0	0.0	4.0	10.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	Mjallby (3-2-1, 10 pts)	3.0	2.0	1.0	10.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Malmo (2-1-3, 9 pts)	2.0	1.0	3.0	9.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
8	AIK Stockholm (2-2-2, 8 pts)	2.0	2.0	2.0	8.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Göteborg (2-2-2, 8 pts)	2.0	2.0	2.0	8.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
10	Djurgarden (2-3-1, 7 pts)	2.0	3.0	1.0	7.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Hammarby (2-3-1, 7 pts)	2.0	3.0	1.0	7.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Kalmar (2-4-0, 6 pts)	2.0	4.0	0.0	6.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Orebro (1-2-3, 6 pts)	1.0	2.0	3.0	6.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Falkenberg (1-3-2, 5 pts)	1.0	3.0	2.0	5.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
15	Ostersund (1-4-1, 4 pts)	1.0	4.0	1.0	4.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
16	Helsingborg (0-4-2, 2 pts)	0.0	4.0	2.0	2.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

The Swedish Allsvenskan season typically runs from the beginning to April to the beginning of November. Each of the sixteen teams play a home-and-home with every other team in the Allsvenskan to play thirty games total for the season. The bottom two teams get relegated and the third to the bottom placed team plays in a two leg match against the 3rd placed Superettan team to see who qualifies for the Allsvenskan.