Newcastle United at Burnley

Updated 138 days ago

02:00 PM • May 4, 2024

Newcastle United

31.2%28.8%40.0%

Newcastle United WinDrawBurnley Win

1.02Projected Goals 1.20

4Final Score 1

Burnley

Last 5 Games

Newcastle United		Money Line
W 1-5	4/27 vs Sheffield United	-460
L 0-2	4/24 at Crystal Palace	+125
W 0-4	4/13 vs Tottenham	+165
W 1-0	4/06 at Fulham	+182
T 1-1	4/02 vs Everton	+100

Burnley		Money Line
T 1-1	4/27 at Manchester United	+450
W 4-1	4/20 at Sheffield United	+155
T 1-1	4/13 vs Brighton and Hove Albion	+270
L 0-1	4/06 at Everton	+365
T 1-1	4/02 vs Wolverhampton	+135

Money Line Analysis

:3.1%:4.2%

	Open Line	5Dimes	Bovada	BetOnline	GTBets	SportsBetting	Best Line	No-Vig Odds Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price. More on No-Vig Odds
Newcastle United	-110	-	-105	-102	-	-102	-102	-
Burnley	+255	-	+240	+246	-	+246	+246	-
Draw	+300	-	+320	+315	-	+315	+320	-

	Open Line	South Point	Circa	Caesars	Stations	Westgate	Best Line	No-Vig Odds Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price. More on No-Vig Odds
Newcastle United	-105	-	+100	-	-120	+100	+100	-
Burnley	+245	-	+233	-	+220	+225	+233	-
Draw	+300	-	+296	-	+275	+310	+310	-

Overall

Bet Value Inactive

Newcastle United: 0.0%

Bet Value Inactive

Burnley: 40.0%

Base Rating
Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.
More on Base Rating

Newcastle United: 0.0%

Burnley: 40.0%

Bet Trends
Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.
More on Bet Trends

Newcastle United: 0.0%

Burnley: 0.0%

Sharp Line
Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.
More on Sharp Line

Newcastle United: 0.0%

Burnley: 0.0%

Latest ML
Steam Move
A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.
More on Steam Move

Newcastle United ML moved from +100 to -10505/04/2024
01:53 PM

Burnley ML moved from +240 to +23005/04/2024
01:52 PM

Overall

Bet Value Inactive

Newcastle United: 0.0%

Bet Value Inactive

Burnley: 40.0%

Base Rating
Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.
More on Base Rating

Newcastle United: 0.0%

Burnley: 40.0%

Bet Trends
Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.
More on Bet Trends

Newcastle United: 0.0%

Burnley: 0.0%

Sharp Line
Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.
More on Sharp Line

Newcastle United: 0.0%

Burnley: 0.0%

Latest ML
Steam Move
A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.
More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Newcastle United ML

Burnley ML moved from +245 to +22005/04/2024
12:04 PM

Over/Under Analysis

:3.5%:-1.0%

	Open Line	5Dimes	Bovada	BetOnline	GTBets	SportsBetting	Best Line	No-Vig Odds Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price. More on No-Vig Odds
Over	o3¼+102	-	o3¼-120	o3¼-117	-	o3¼-117	o3¼-117	-
Under	u3¼-122	-	u3¼+100	u3¼+101	-	u3¼+101	u3¼+101	-

	Open Line	South Point	Circa	Caesars	Stations	Westgate	Best Line	No-Vig Odds Using a market maker sportsbook, this is what the line would be if there was no vigorish (sportsbook fee) in the price. More on No-Vig Odds
Over	o3-130	o3-140	o3½+105	-	o3½-110	o3½+100	o3-140	-
Under	u3+110	u3+120	u3½-125	-	u3½-120	u3½-120	u3½-120	-

Overall

Bet Value Inactive

Over: 0.0%

Bet Value Inactive

Under: 30.0%

Base Rating
Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.
More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%

Under: 30.0%

Bet Trends
Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.
More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Under: 0.0%

Sharp Line
Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.
More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%

Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U
Steam Move
A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.
More on Steam Move

No Steam Moves On Over

No Steam Moves On Under

Overall

Bet Value Inactive

Over: 0.0%

Bet Value Inactive

Under: 30.0%

Base Rating
Our analytical projection of the match in relation to the implied probability to win from the sportsbooks.
More on Base Rating

Over: 0.0%

Under: 30.0%

Bet Trends
Doing an analysis on the betting data, we project which team has which team has an edge.
More on Bet Trends

Over: 0.0%

Under: 0.0%

Sharp Line
Our proprietary formula predicting which direction the line will move.
More on Sharp Line

Over: 0.0%

Under: 0.0%

Latest O/U
Steam Move
A quick and uniform line move across every sportsbook. Usually caused by an injury or deep-pocketed sharp bettor.
More on Steam Move

The Over moved from o3-140 to o3½-11005/04/2024
01:00 PM

No Steam Moves On Under

Goal Props

Both Teams to Score
Yes	44.8%


No	55.2%

Total Goals

Exact Goals Scored - Overall
Exactly 0	10.81%
Exactly 2	26.75%
Exactly 4	11.03%
Exactly 6	1.82%
Exactly 8	0.16%


Exactly 1	24.05%
Exactly 3	19.84%
Exactly 5	4.91%
Exactly 7	0.58%

Exact Goals Scored - Newcastle United
Exactly 0	35.88%
Exactly 1	36.78%
Exactly 2	18.85%
Exactly 3	6.44%
Exactly 4	1.65%
Exactly 5	0.34%

Exact Goals Scored - Burnley
Exactly 0	30.12%
Exactly 1	36.14%
Exactly 2	21.68%
Exactly 3	8.67%
Exactly 4	2.60%
Exactly 5	0.62%
Exactly 6	0.12%

Exact Goals Scored - First Half
Exactly 0	35.70%
Exactly 2	18.94%
Exactly 4	1.67%


Exactly 1	36.77%
Exactly 3	6.50%
Exactly 5	0.35%

Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Newcastle United
Exactly 0	62.22%
Exactly 1	29.53%
Exactly 2	7.01%
Exactly 3	1.11%
Exactly 4	0.13%

Exact Goals Scored - First Half - Burnley
Exactly 0	57.38%
Exactly 1	31.87%
Exactly 2	8.85%
Exactly 3	1.64%
Exactly 4	0.23%

Alternate Props

Spread

Newcastle United
Wins by 2+ goals	11.72%
Wins by 3+ goals	3.33%
Wins by 4+ goals	0.72%
Wins by 5+ goals	0.10%

Burnley
Wins by 2+ goals	17.20%
Wins by 3+ goals	5.70%
Wins by 4+ goals	1.50%
Wins by 5+ goals	0.31%

Exact Winning Margin

Newcastle United

Burnley

Newcastle United
Wins by 1 goal	19.44%
Wins by 2 goals	8.39%
Wins by 3 goals	2.61%
Wins by 4 goals	0.62%
Wins by 5 goals	0.10%

Burnley
Wins by 1 goal	22.76%
Wins by 2 goals	11.50%
Wins by 3 goals	4.19%
Wins by 4 goals	1.19%
Wins by 5 goals	0.27%

Total Goals Over/Under

	Over	Under
0.5	89.19%	10.81%
1.5	65.14%	34.86%
2.5	38.39%	61.61%
3.5	18.56%	81.44%
4.5	7.52%	92.48%
5.5	2.61%	97.39%

Total Goals Newcastle United Over/Under

	Over	Under
0.5	64.12%	35.88%
1.5	27.34%	72.66%
2.5	8.50%	91.50%
3.5	2.06%	97.94%

Total Goals Burnley Over/Under

	Over	Under
0.5	69.88%	30.12%
1.5	33.73%	66.27%
2.5	12.05%	87.95%
3.5	3.38%	96.62%

Total Goals - First Half Over/Under

	Over	Under
0.5	64.30%	35.70%
1.5	27.53%	72.47%
2.5	8.59%	91.41%
3.5	2.09%	97.91%

Score Props

Correct Score

Newcastle United

Burnley

Score	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10.81%	12.97%	7.78%	3.11%	0.93%	0.22%
1	11.08%	13.29%	7.97%	3.19%	0.96%	0.23%
2	5.68%	6.81%	4.09%	1.63%	0.49%	0.12%
3	1.94%	2.33%	1.40%	0.56%	0.17%	0.04%
4	0.50%	0.60%	0.36%	0.14%	0.04%	0.01%
5	0.10%	0.12%	0.07%	0.03%	0.01%	0.00%

Newcastle United
1-0	11.08%
2-0	5.68%
2-1	6.81%
3-0	1.94%
3-1	2.33%
3-2	1.40%
4-0	0.50%
4-1	0.60%
4-2	0.36%
4-3	0.14%
5-0	0.10%
5-1	0.12%

Draw
0-0	10.81%
1-1	13.29%
2-2	4.09%
3-3	0.56%

Burnley
0-1	12.97%
0-2	7.78%
1-2	7.97%
0-3	3.11%
1-3	3.19%
2-3	1.63%
0-4	0.93%
1-4	0.96%
2-4	0.49%
3-4	0.17%
0-5	0.22%
1-5	0.23%
2-5	0.12%

Correct Score - First Half

Newcastle United

Burnley

Score	0	1	2	3	4
0	35.70%	19.83%	5.51%	1.02%	0.14%
1	16.94%	9.41%	2.61%	0.48%	0.07%
2	4.02%	2.23%	0.62%	0.11%	0.02%
3	0.64%	0.35%	0.10%	0.02%	0.00%

Newcastle United
1-0	16.94%
2-0	4.02%
2-1	2.23%
3-0	0.64%
3-1	0.35%

Draw
0-0	35.70%
1-1	9.41%
2-2	0.62%

Burnley
0-1	19.83%
0-2	5.51%
1-2	2.61%
0-3	1.02%
1-3	0.48%
2-3	0.11%
0-4	0.14%

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