English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Newcastle United
Manchester United 		9.8%
74.0%		16.1%
+172
+147
+173
+147
3.19
o3+100
u3-108
o3+105
u3+120
FINAL
FINAL		0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Arsenal
Crystal Palace		50.7%
23.4%		25.9%
-115
+340
-110
+310
2
1		-0.65904-0.69037-0.67962
Chelsea
Sunderland		78.3%
7.3%		14.4%
+113
+235
+110
+260
1
2		-1.23963-1.30486-2.61565
Aston Villa
Manchester City		7.9%
78.2%		13.9%
+620
-240
+595
-239
2
1		-2.00872-1.98094-2.53666
Leeds United
West Ham United		26.1%
48.5%		25.4%
+360
-142
+375
-147
0
3		-0.56660-0.56180-0.72340
Everton
Tottenham		25.7%
49.9%		24.3%
+325
-111
+320
-109
0
1		-0.67704-0.68550-0.69433
Newcastle United
Fulham		37.2%
33.7%		29.1%
+165
+160
+163
+155
0
2		-0.99010-0.97440-1.08655
Wolverhampton
Burnley		42.6%
28.9%		28.5%
+193
+144
+185
+150
1
1		-1.31148-1.26567-1.25411
Manchester United
Brighton and Hove Albion		63.3%
15.6%		21.0%
+245
-105
+255
-110
3
0		-1.26979-1.30534-0.45681
Tottenham
Chelsea		28.9%
46.2%		24.9%
+240
+128
+235
+130
1
2		-0.85665-0.85581-0.77260
Manchester City
Bournemouth		83.1%
5.2%		11.6%
-160
+405
-164
+395
1
1		-1.53907-1.56585-2.15158
Burnley
Arsenal		16.2%
61.4%		22.4%
+2400
-865
+2000
-1000
0
1		-0.14513-0.13819-0.48770
West Ham United
Newcastle United		43.3%
30.0%		26.7%
+235
+110
+216
+110
1
3		-0.77258-0.78073-1.20371
Brighton and Hove Albion
Leeds United		31.9%
39.9%		28.2%
+111
+245
+105
+252
0
1		-1.27186-1.30118-0.91930
Fulham
Wolverhampton		18.0%
58.4%		23.6%
-115
+330
-120
+320
1
1		-1.35530-1.40015-1.44358
Sunderland
Everton		8.7%
75.0%		16.3%
+342
-115
+320
-115
3
1		-1.52065-1.47395-2.44369
Liverpool
Aston Villa		62.6%
16.8%		20.6%
+161
+173
+161
+171
2
4		-1.03727-1.02644-1.78308
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.