English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Feb 7, 2026

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Newcastle United
Manchester United 		9.8%
74.0%		16.1%
+172
+147
+173
+147
3.19
o3+100
u3-108
o3+105
u3+120
FINAL
FINAL		0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Sunderland
West Ham United		10.4%
71.6%		18.0%
+237
+128
+235
+135
1
3		-0.85746-0.87671-0.33469
Bournemouth
Brighton and Hove Albion		21.4%
53.4%		25.2%
+286
-105
+260
+100
1
1		-1.37472-1.38490-1.37896
Everton
Aston Villa		38.3%
34.9%		26.8%
+535
-172
+475
-162
1
0		-1.88335-1.78761-0.96037
Newcastle United
Wolverhampton		22.2%
52.9%		24.9%
-138
+380
-130
+350
0
0		-1.43318-1.41354-1.39074
West Ham United
Tottenham		21.9%
55.1%		22.9%
+333
-114
+335
-120
2
1		-1.49406-1.50792-1.51754
Burnley
Liverpool		8.6%
75.2%		16.1%
+1225
-440
+1125
-435
1
1		-1.97487-1.95151-1.82455
Crystal Palace
Sunderland		55.0%
19.1%		25.9%
+222
+144
+218
+140
1
2		-0.92627-0.91817-1.65595
Fulham
Leeds United		24.2%
49.9%		25.9%
+215
+138
+215
+133
0
1		-0.90175-0.88583-0.69531
Manchester City
Manchester United		48.0%
26.5%		25.4%
+132
+207
+125
+270
0
2		-1.14486-1.27902-1.32618
Liverpool
Arsenal		49.0%
25.4%		25.6%
+475
-175
+490
-175
0
0		-1.52731-1.49629-1.36344
Leeds United
Newcastle United		35.3%
36.3%		28.4%
+465
-153
+440
-155
3
4		-0.53726-0.53998-1.01297
Manchester United
Burnley		65.6%
14.1%		20.4%
-136
+410
-135
+390
2
2		-1.36991-1.37980-1.59199
Chelsea
Fulham		67.4%
13.4%		19.2%
+104
+272
+107
+272
1
2		-1.34546-1.34677-2.00909
Aston Villa
Crystal Palace		38.7%
33.3%		28.0%
+139
+218
+135
+213
0
0		-1.23988-1.25579-1.27343
Tottenham
Bournemouth		66.9%
13.8%		19.3%
+230
+120
+220
+124
2
3		-0.82098-0.84476-1.98333
Brighton and Hove Albion
Manchester City		6.3%
80.5%		13.2%
+510
-193
+495
-195
1
1		-1.58572-1.58012-2.02776
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.70818 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.65626 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.57968
-0.87150
-0.92342

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.