English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Apr 5, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Bournemouth
Tottenham		9.9%
73.8%		16.2%
+140
+185
+135
+180
2
2		-1.36528-1.37980-1.81788
Everton
Wolverhampton		35.2%
36.5%		28.3%
+182
+186
+185
+185
1
1		-1.14228-1.13314-1.26196
Southampton
Liverpool		12.5%
69.6%		17.9%
+2400
-900
+2300
-1000
1
3		-0.13580-0.14071-0.36307
Fulham
Brighton and Hove Albion		24.1%
49.1%		26.7%
+290
+101
+275
+100
1
2		-0.72935-0.74421-0.71113
Leicester City
West Ham United		45.5%
28.5%		26.0%
+382
-130
+380
-130
0
2		-0.60576-0.59381-1.25614
Newcastle United
Liverpool		8.3%
76.7%		15.0%
+700
-265
+675
-250
0
2		-0.34480-0.35969-0.26497
Manchester City
Tottenham		59.3%
18.9%		21.8%
-120
+295
-110
+280
1
0		-0.63424-0.66336-0.52297
Southampton
Chelsea		18.4%
60.8%		20.8%
+1550
-600
+1625
-650
0
4		-0.18569-0.17882-0.49733
Aston Villa
Crystal Palace		38.7%
33.3%		28.0%
+230
+125
+225
+140
1
4		-0.84202-0.88150-1.09880
Bournemouth
Brighton and Hove Albion		21.4%
53.4%		25.2%
+270
-101
+260
+100
1
2		-0.71693-0.72998-0.62747
Fulham
Wolverhampton		18.0%
58.4%		23.6%
+220
+140
+205
+165
2
1		-1.19663-1.12338-1.71636
Liverpool
Manchester City		23.4%
52.0%		24.6%
+118
+217
+115
+215
2
0		-0.81398-0.81018-1.45222
Chelsea
Aston Villa		52.5%
24.1%		23.4%
+165
+163
+160
+160
1
2		-1.00174-1.00144-1.42292
Wolverhampton
Bournemouth		54.1%
21.0%		24.9%
+450
-163
+425
-165
1
0		-1.73829-1.70815-0.61389
Brighton and Hove Albion
Southampton		26.3%
48.0%		25.7%
-178
+480
-190
+500
4
0		-0.47547-0.46364-1.33724
Crystal Palace
Fulham		39.5%
30.9%		29.6%
+272
+109
+270
+110
2
0		-1.34619-1.34811-0.92826
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.54910 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.54967 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.77260
-0.22350
-0.22293

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.