English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Sep 14, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Brighton and Hove Albion
Everton		22.2%
53.3%		24.5%
+147
+198
+137
+210
0
2		-1.12590-1.17785-0.62835
Leeds United
Arsenal		18.0%
59.7%		22.3%
+900
-313
+875
-315
0
5		-0.31151-0.31821-0.51664
Wolverhampton
Bournemouth		54.1%
21.0%		24.9%
+345
-119
+360
-125
0
1		-0.64413-0.61995-1.56003
Sunderland
Burnley		15.5%
60.7%		23.8%
+232
+140
+240
+131
0
2		-0.91018-0.88078-0.49911
Tottenham
Manchester City		13.8%
67.4%		18.8%
+500
-190
+500
-180
2
0		-1.82579-1.80120-1.98130
Chelsea
West Ham United		51.0%
25.0%		24.0%
-131
+390
-140
+400
5
1		-0.59128-0.57120-0.67274
Everton
Leeds United		44.7%
29.1%		26.2%
+217
+140
+225
+130
0
1		-0.91001-0.88187-1.23505
Arsenal
Manchester United		22.5%
53.5%		24.0%
-104
+295
-102
+300
1
0		-0.70362-0.71180-1.49290
Crystal Palace
Chelsea		13.8%
66.5%		19.7%
+350
-120
+340
-125
0
0		-1.36141-1.37007-1.62308
Manchester City
Wolverhampton		69.0%
12.3%		18.7%
-192
+560
-205
+561
4
0		-0.45248-0.43730-0.37122
Burnley
Tottenham		15.0%
64.5%		20.5%
+545
-172
+560
-190
0
3		-0.49323-0.47221-0.43785
Fulham
Brighton and Hove Albion		24.1%
49.1%		26.7%
+345
-118
+325
-120
1
1		-1.34796-1.35810-1.31920
West Ham United
Sunderland		64.6%
14.3%		21.1%
+127
+250
+125
+240
0
3		-1.28616-1.27079-1.94421
Newcastle United
Aston Villa		24.1%
51.5%		24.4%
+193
+147
+200
+135
0
0		-1.30056-1.33705-1.41186
Bournemouth
Liverpool		5.8%
81.9%		12.4%
+840
-345
+850
-375
2
4		-0.28943-0.28611-0.19981
Crystal Palace
Liverpool		9.4%
73.7%		16.8%
+595
-270
+650
-285
1
1		-1.85886-1.85202-1.78112
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks64-0-2 (0.833)0-0.90697 
Sportsbooks64-0-2 (0.833)0-0.90671 
DRatings61-3-2 (0.333)0-1.22505
-0.31808
-0.31834

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.