English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Newcastle United
Manchester United 		9.8%
74.0%		16.1%
+172
+147
+173
+147
3.19
o3+100
u3-108
o3+105
u3+120
FINAL
FINAL		0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Crystal Palace
Manchester City		6.3%
80.3%		13.4%
+800
-300
+850
-305
0
3		-0.31508-0.29928-0.21940
Leeds United
Tottenham		16.7%
62.7%		20.6%
+360
-122
+345
-120
1
1		-1.37441-1.39679-1.58207
Arsenal
West Ham United		43.1%
30.2%		26.7%
-179
+560
-175
+500
1
0		-0.46148-0.48438-0.84218
Everton
Crystal Palace		44.6%
28.2%		27.2%
+160
+188
+137
+209
2
2		-1.22820-1.26270-1.30195
Aston Villa
Burnley		41.2%
31.4%		27.4%
-192
+550
-170
+550
2
2		-1.53368-1.49228-1.29295
Manchester United
Sunderland		80.7%
6.0%		13.2%
+118
+240
+120
+270
0
0		-1.30089-1.28352-2.02147
Wolverhampton
Brighton and Hove Albion		40.0%
31.3%		28.8%
+950
-350
+920
-375
0
3		-0.28555-0.28159-1.16203
Chelsea
Liverpool		24.1%
51.7%		24.1%
+280
+104
+279
-105
1
1		-1.34155-1.38322-1.42205
Manchester City
Everton		66.8%
14.0%		19.2%
-227
+635
-240
+650
3
3		-1.62303-1.65590-1.64818
Tottenham
Aston Villa		47.5%
27.9%		24.6%
+209
+125
+213
+130
2
1		-1.16232-1.16886-0.74503
Liverpool
Manchester United		36.4%
35.8%		27.8%
+185
+142
+185
+137
2
3		-0.91757-0.89823-1.02678
Crystal Palace
Bournemouth		43.7%
28.0%		28.3%
+475
-165
+490
-175
0
3		-0.50785-0.49231-1.27382
Fulham
Arsenal		12.6%
67.8%		19.6%
+625
-207
+670
-225
0
3		-0.42329-0.40428-0.38889
Sunderland
Wolverhampton		10.0%
71.4%		18.5%
+105
+285
+100
+276
1
1		-1.28547-1.32373-1.68519
Brighton and Hove Albion
Newcastle United		34.8%
36.0%		29.2%
+153
+176
+150
+175
1
3		-1.03440-1.04851-1.02026
Burnley
Leeds United		29.4%
42.6%		28.0%
+750
-240
+730
-250
1
3		-0.37474-0.37498-0.85379
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.