English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Dec 26, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Chelsea
Tottenham		37.1%
36.4%		26.5%
+128
+187
+125
+190
4
3		-0.85873-0.84648-0.99266
Brighton and Hove Albion
Leicester City		16.6%
61.5%		21.9%
-151
+400
-145
+400
2
2		-1.49219-1.46460-1.52092
Arsenal
Fulham		60.1%
17.2%		22.7%
-162
+460
-175
+475
1
1		-1.48762-1.52381-1.48259
Manchester City
Crystal Palace		75.3%
8.6%		16.1%
-135
+393
-135
+400
2
2		-1.41325-1.41046-1.82853
Southampton
Aston Villa		33.5%
40.3%		26.2%
+800
-285
+810
-320
0
1		-0.33026-0.31663-0.90887
Tottenham
Bournemouth		66.9%
13.8%		19.3%
+206
+121
+205
+115
0
1		-0.82187-0.81430-1.98333
Brighton and Hove Albion
Fulham		40.4%
30.7%		28.9%
+170
+160
+185
+165
1
3		-0.98406-0.97527-1.18136
Manchester United
Arsenal		44.4%
29.2%		26.3%
+600
-220
+600
-235
0
2		-0.40461-0.40386-1.23032
Wolverhampton
Everton		29.3%
43.9%		26.7%
+282
+110
+270
+110
0
4		-0.77605-0.78592-0.82278
Liverpool
Newcastle United		70.6%
11.5%		17.9%
+100
+270
+100
+290
3
3		-1.37765-1.37369-1.72104
Chelsea
Southampton		51.8%
24.7%		23.6%
-305
+800
-320
+790
5
1		-0.31670-0.31477-0.65875
West Ham United
Leicester City		21.8%
54.6%		23.6%
+140
+202
+135
+196
1
3		-1.13822-1.13311-0.60453
Manchester City
Liverpool		42.9%
30.2%		26.8%
+260
+104
+255
+100
0
2		-0.74028-0.74036-1.19673
Aston Villa
Chelsea		17.9%
61.5%		20.6%
+373
-140
+350
-142
0
3		-0.57132-0.57645-0.48605
Fulham
Tottenham		11.5%
70.7%		17.7%
+275
-105
+335
-115
1
1		-1.45188-1.48232-1.72963
Everton
Manchester United		18.1%
60.4%		21.5%
+500
-167
+465
-175
0
4		-0.49905-0.50216-0.50460
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.