English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Dec 20, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
West Ham United
Manchester United		15.1%
65.2%		19.7%
+650
-245
+650
-250
1
1		-1.68378-1.66400-1.62547
Chelsea
Leeds United		58.8%
19.2%		21.9%
-104
+320
+100
+305
1
3		-1.45745-1.41223-1.64854
Sunderland
Liverpool		3.9%
85.7%		10.3%
+750
-285
+750
-290
1
1		-1.76597-1.74686-2.26847
Aston Villa
Brighton and Hove Albion		38.4%
34.0%		27.6%
+225
+125
+230
+125
4
3		-1.21039-1.23467-0.95667
Crystal Palace
Burnley		33.2%
36.4%		30.4%
-136
+415
-135
+395
1
0		-0.58625-0.59793-1.10358
Tottenham
Newcastle United		57.6%
19.9%		22.5%
+320
-116
+330
-119
2
2		-1.38234-1.38701-1.49188
Everton
Bournemouth		58.8%
18.6%		22.6%
+240
+123
+240
+120
1
0		-1.25896-1.26986-0.53178
Manchester City
Fulham		81.0%
6.1%		12.9%
-157
+437
-171
+450
5
4		-0.52745-0.50483-0.21104
Arsenal
Chelsea		27.0%
47.8%		25.2%
+150
+214
+150
+220
1
1		-1.18270-1.16587-1.38023
Wolverhampton
Aston Villa		34.5%
37.9%		27.6%
+600
-200
+569
-205
0
1		-0.43576-0.44020-0.97133
Liverpool
West Ham United		61.0%
17.5%		21.5%
-165
+415
-160
+410
2
0		-0.50514-0.51864-0.49477
Manchester United
Crystal Palace		63.3%
15.4%		21.3%
+255
+109
+210
+125
2
1		-1.29836-1.17746-0.45667
Fulham
Tottenham		11.5%
70.7%		17.7%
+215
+138
+230
+136
2
1		-1.17451-1.21800-2.15857
Newcastle United
Everton		19.7%
57.4%		22.9%
+171
+175
+170
+174
4
1		-1.03024-1.03356-1.62496
Leeds United
Manchester City		6.3%
81.2%		12.6%
+1200
-450
+1100
-440
2
3		-0.23317-0.24696-0.20880
Everton
Manchester United		18.1%
60.4%		21.5%
+325
-116
+315
-120
1
0		-1.47850-1.46633-1.70727
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.49673 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.46274 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.01974
-0.52301
-0.55700

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.