English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Crystal Palace
Tottenham		16.4%
62.2%		21.4%
+126
+212
+140
+210
2
0		-0.85022-0.88860-1.81088
Chelsea
Newcastle United		62.4%
16.8%		20.7%
+211
+125
+220
+120
0
2		-0.84306-0.82508-1.78165
Aston Villa
Bournemouth		52.8%
22.9%		24.3%
+172
+160
+165
+155
1
0		-1.03403-1.01357-0.63837
Everton
Fulham		54.5%
21.3%		24.2%
+383
-126
+385
-135
3
1		-1.60909-1.62862-0.60730
Brighton and Hove Albion
Wolverhampton		24.7%
48.7%		26.6%
+153
+195
+140
+195
2
0		-0.96043-0.91997-1.39999
Manchester City
Southampton		71.7%
11.3%		16.9%
-500
+1300
-585
+1375
0
0		-2.09777-2.11968-1.77526
Liverpool
Chelsea		42.5%
31.2%		26.3%
+191
+135
+210
+130
1
3		-0.88489-0.85055-1.16626
Tottenham
West Ham United		45.9%
28.7%		25.4%
+310
-117
+274
-105
1
1		-1.41882-1.41543-1.37227
Newcastle United
Brighton and Hove Albion		29.0%
43.2%		27.7%
+124
+207
+130
+185
1
1		-1.36971-1.39247-1.28248
Bournemouth
Arsenal		10.9%
71.2%		17.9%
+428
-147
+425
+100
2
1		-1.69200-1.59032-2.21926
Southampton
Leicester City		21.5%
55.5%		22.9%
+190
+147
+190
+145
0
2		-0.93512-0.93407-0.58828
Fulham
Aston Villa		19.6%
57.5%		22.9%
+340
-115
+340
-120
0
1		-0.64737-0.63486-0.55342
Wolverhampton
Manchester City		8.9%
75.4%		15.8%
+865
-300
+775
-280
0
1		-0.31634-0.34273-0.28271
Tottenham
Liverpool		20.7%
56.6%		22.7%
+1150
-450
+1150
-450
1
5		-0.23524-0.22752-0.56966
Manchester United
Bournemouth		74.7%
9.3%		16.0%
+280
-107
+350
-115
1
1		-1.40646-1.38394-1.83452
West Ham United
Brighton and Hove Albion		39.2%
32.7%		28.1%
+340
-125
+360
-130
2
3		-0.62008-0.59964-1.11694
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.