English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 1, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Crystal Palace
Everton		21.8%
53.5%		24.8%
+188
+172
+190
+155
1
2		-1.03440-0.97979-0.62607
Brighton and Hove Albion
Wolverhampton		24.7%
48.7%		26.6%
+113
+255
+110
+279
1
1		-1.29313-1.30262-1.32287
Burnley
Aston Villa		24.5%
50.1%		25.3%
+535
-177
+540
-190
1
2		-0.48295-0.47119-0.69017
Liverpool
Chelsea		42.5%
31.2%		26.3%
+140
+190
+130
+198
1
2		-1.09109-1.12964-1.16626
West Ham United
Arsenal		23.4%
52.2%		24.4%
+1600
-575
+1700
-510
0
2		-0.19464-0.20032-0.65084
Sunderland
Manchester United		4.5%
84.4%		11.1%
+440
-160
+485
-160
0
2		-0.52074-0.49160-0.16920
Tottenham
Leeds United		54.0%
22.5%		23.4%
+166
+180
+160
+175
2
1		-1.00100-0.99536-0.61598
West Ham United
Everton		28.4%
45.8%		25.8%
+450
-152
+470
-150
1
1		-1.42068-1.40194-1.35662
Arsenal
Newcastle United		54.6%
21.3%		24.1%
+118
+255
+125
+240
2
1		-0.81326-0.85616-0.60446
Fulham
Aston Villa		19.6%
57.5%		22.9%
+240
+128
+238
+130
1
3		-0.85840-0.87705-0.55342
Wolverhampton
Tottenham		22.8%
53.0%		24.2%
+590
-188
+550
-190
1
1		-1.47024-1.50833-1.42064
Burnley
Manchester City		5.7%
81.5%		12.7%
+1550
-540
+1340
-530
1
5		-0.20438-0.21680-0.20416
Liverpool
Crystal Palace		67.1%
13.0%		19.9%
-113
+322
-115
+340
1
2		-1.47408-1.50661-2.03968
Brighton and Hove Albion
Chelsea		14.0%
66.5%		19.5%
+275
+102
+280
+100
3
1		-1.35608-1.36787-1.96390
Bournemouth
Leeds United		21.4%
54.2%		24.4%
+155
+200
+145
+195
2
2		-1.22632-1.25148-1.41055
Manchester City
Arsenal		60.5%
17.6%		21.9%
+280
+103
+280
+101
1
1		-1.34788-1.33880-1.51741
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.