English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Feb 7, 2026

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Newcastle United
Manchester United 		9.8%
74.0%		16.1%
+172
+147
+173
+147
3.19
o3+100
u3-108
o3+105
u3+120
FINAL
FINAL		0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Wolverhampton
Everton		29.3%
43.9%		26.7%
+362
-115
+375
-117
1
1		-1.29328-1.27086-1.31927
Chelsea
Manchester City		16.4%
63.2%		20.4%
+540
-215
+540
-195
1
1		-1.66352-1.62658-1.59111
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United		34.2%
36.4%		29.4%
+410
-142
+400
-145
0
2		-0.56243-0.57481-1.01063
Sunderland
Tottenham		6.3%
80.4%		13.2%
+320
-102
+325
-103
1
1		-1.26447-1.27036-2.02155
Liverpool
Fulham		74.4%
9.2%		16.4%
-112
+320
-115
+330
2
2		-1.35031-1.33530-1.80503
Manchester United
Leeds United		63.9%
15.7%		20.4%
+166
+178
+170
+170
1
1		-1.24043-1.26848-1.58988
Arsenal
Bournemouth		64.1%
14.9%		21.0%
-192
+545
-195
+545
3
2		-0.45347-0.44150-0.44505
West Ham United
Wolverhampton		31.2%
41.5%		27.3%
+172
+170
+176
+170
0
3		-1.02742-1.03285-0.88015
Burnley
Brighton and Hove Albion		29.3%
41.9%		28.8%
+640
-215
+620
-220
0
2		-0.41641-0.41983-0.86984
Manchester City
Sunderland		86.5%
3.6%		9.9%
-237
+675
-236
+645
0
0		-1.62496-1.62582-2.31334
Leeds United
Liverpool		9.6%
74.4%		16.1%
+600
-208
+622
-205
0
0		-1.56098-1.56729-1.82697
Fulham
Crystal Palace		24.4%
48.1%		27.5%
+240
+132
+245
+130
1
1		-1.21956-1.22122-1.29244
Wolverhampton
Manchester United		16.0%
63.0%		21.0%
+700
-260
+720
-280
1
1		-1.70755-1.72177-1.56108
Aston Villa
Arsenal		22.6%
53.8%		23.6%
+700
-260
+725
-235
1
4		-0.35968-0.35906-0.62003
Bournemouth
Chelsea		8.3%
77.1%		14.6%
+460
-172
+480
-170
2
2		-1.53141-1.54529-1.92648
Newcastle United
Burnley		31.2%
40.0%		28.8%
-175
+500
-170
+485
3
1		-0.48696-0.49786-1.16411
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.70818 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.65626 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.57968
-0.87150
-0.92342

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.