English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 1, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Newcastle United
Bournemouth		41.3%
30.7%		28.0%
+210
+143
+227
+132
0
0		-1.26203-1.27508-1.27361
Aston Villa
Sunderland		64.1%
14.9%		21.0%
+118
+290
+115
+295
1
1		-1.23299-1.22561-1.55903
Chelsea
Manchester United		27.9%
47.1%		25.0%
+154
+168
+155
+172
1
2		-1.02015-1.03313-0.75315
Crystal Palace
West Ham United		25.4%
48.4%		26.2%
+137
+210
+133
+220
2
1		-0.89668-0.88528-1.37113
Leeds United
Wolverhampton		24.9%
49.2%		25.9%
+162
+202
+165
+199
3
1		-0.99696-1.01346-1.39022
Tottenham
Brighton and Hove Albion		53.6%
22.4%		24.0%
+233
+114
+236
+115
2
2		-1.35147-1.34477-1.42520
Everton
Liverpool		15.4%
64.4%		20.2%
+565
-197
+600
-205
1
2		-0.44580-0.43383-0.44012
Manchester United
Manchester City		20.1%
57.1%		22.8%
+410
-153
+410
-150
0
3		-0.53737-0.53907-0.56103
Liverpool
Burnley		69.0%
11.9%		19.1%
-315
+875
-315
+850
1
0		-0.30915-0.31767-0.37159
Tottenham
West Ham United		45.9%
28.7%		25.4%
+119
+231
+115
+240
3
0		-0.81828-0.80107-0.77875
Sunderland
Crystal Palace		14.3%
62.9%		22.8%
+450
-140
+455
-140
0
0		-1.35305-1.32141-1.47766
Aston Villa
Everton		27.6%
47.4%		25.0%
+186
+162
+175
+160
0
0		-1.22772-1.26528-1.38593
Leeds United
Fulham		41.0%
30.9%		28.1%
+285
+108
+275
+110
0
1		-0.76641-0.78419-1.17600
Wolverhampton
Newcastle United		44.0%
28.7%		27.3%
+810
-270
+780
-265
0
1		-0.35015-0.36622-1.24956
Brighton and Hove Albion
Bournemouth		44.6%
27.7%		27.6%
+190
+144
+195
+136
1
2		-0.92619-0.90209-1.28240
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa		26.4%
47.6%		26.1%
+266
+111
+280
+113
3
0		-1.33219-1.36141-1.33347
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.