English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Fulham
Southampton		19.1%
58.1%		22.8%
-155
+450
-156
+445
2
1		-0.52523-0.53142-1.65564
Leicester City
Wolverhampton		43.5%
29.3%		27.2%
+530
-185
+520
-190
0
3		-0.46177-0.45845-1.22751
Everton
Chelsea		22.1%
54.9%		22.9%
+675
-230
+690
-210
0
1		-0.39065-0.40477-0.59957
Crystal Palace
Arsenal		17.6%
59.3%		23.1%
+785
-255
+815
-280
2
2		-1.64026-1.64641-1.46477
Aston Villa
Manchester City		7.9%
78.2%		13.9%
+287
-110
+280
-110
1
2		-0.68138-0.68474-0.24568
Liverpool
Leicester City		46.8%
27.2%		26.0%
-435
+1150
-475
+1245
1
0		-0.23934-0.22963-0.75886
Wolverhampton
Manchester United		16.0%
63.0%		21.0%
+175
+161
+190
+155
1
0		-1.04594-1.08877-1.83521
Chelsea
Fulham		67.4%
13.4%		19.2%
+134
+205
+135
+205
2
1		-0.88486-0.89279-0.39447
Newcastle United
Aston Villa		24.1%
51.5%		24.4%
+172
+155
+170
+160
1
4		-0.97077-0.98773-0.66361
Southampton
West Ham United		32.3%
41.3%		26.4%
+450
-162
+485
-174
1
1		-1.48175-1.51431-1.33302
Manchester City
Everton		66.8%
14.0%		19.2%
-109
+315
-110
+290
2
0		-0.68536-0.69589-0.40350
Bournemouth
Crystal Palace		21.7%
52.4%		25.9%
+170
+162
+167
+160
0
0		-1.30012-1.29667-1.35151
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United		34.2%
36.4%		29.4%
+430
-148
+420
-150
0
5		-0.54516-0.55227-1.01063
Manchester United
Newcastle United		67.2%
13.7%		19.1%
+452
-160
+450
-165
1
4		-0.51263-0.50503-1.99136
Tottenham
Wolverhampton		43.9%
29.6%		26.5%
+221
+127
+212
+140
2
4		-0.85296-0.89416-1.21686
West Ham United
Liverpool		12.8%
68.8%		18.4%
+950
-355
+925
-354
1
2		-0.28303-0.29050-0.37365
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.