English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Dec 20, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Tottenham
Arsenal		34.4%
38.5%		27.0%
+675
-213
+660
-210
1
4		-0.41860-0.42021-0.95358
Aston Villa
Leeds United		38.7%
34.4%		27.0%
+130
+233
+150
+248
2
1		-0.86595-0.89759-0.95042
Manchester City
Newcastle United		78.4%
7.5%		14.1%
-107
+295
-110
+310
1
2		-1.40642-1.43809-2.58734
West Ham United
Bournemouth		53.6%
22.0%		24.4%
+400
-140
+395
-145
2
2		-1.41907-1.41969-1.41256
Crystal Palace
Wolverhampton		24.2%
49.0%		26.8%
-121
+350
-120
+370
2
0		-0.63609-0.63711-1.41762
Chelsea
Burnley		60.8%
17.3%		21.9%
-165
+485
-175
+600
2
0		-0.50064-0.45344-0.49720
Liverpool
Manchester City		23.4%
52.0%		24.6%
+290
-113
+295
-110
0
3		-0.66836-0.67264-0.65427
Bournemouth
Aston Villa		17.1%
61.5%		21.4%
+227
+131
+220
+130
0
4		-0.86955-0.87182-0.48573
Brighton and Hove Albion
Crystal Palace		32.0%
38.5%		29.5%
+207
+140
+220
+132
0
0		-1.26592-1.28157-1.22159
Wolverhampton
Chelsea		19.5%
57.9%		22.5%
+835
-292
+760
-278
0
3		-0.32924-0.34027-0.54569
Arsenal
Sunderland		72.8%
9.5%		17.6%
-212
+665
-220
+675
2
2		-1.52726-1.53331-1.73625
Burnley
West Ham United		23.6%
51.0%		25.4%
+340
-115
+327
-115
2
3		-0.66047-0.66785-0.67405
Fulham
Everton		15.8%
62.9%		21.3%
+228
+137
+227
+133
0
2		-0.89683-0.88768-0.46329
Manchester United
Tottenham		42.8%
31.2%		26.0%
+143
+193
+145
+195
2
2		-1.30085-1.28511-1.34854
Everton
Sunderland		68.7%
11.9%		19.3%
+137
+235
+155
+235
1
1		-1.19336-1.14457-1.64367
Bournemouth
Manchester City		3.9%
86.4%		9.7%
+590
-233
+610
-205
1
3		-0.39161-0.39720-0.14676
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.49673 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.46274 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-2.01974
-0.52301
-0.55700

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.