English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Wolverhampton
Liverpool		13.5%
66.8%		19.7%
+1500
-725
+1475
-750
0
2		-0.16379-0.16372-0.40422
Bournemouth
Chelsea		8.3%
77.1%		14.6%
+595
-240
+575
-250
1
2		-0.38267-0.37821-0.25965
Aston Villa
Crystal Palace		38.7%
33.3%		28.0%
+375
-153
+370
-155
0
5		-0.53510-0.53885-1.09880
Newcastle United
Manchester United		9.8%
74.0%		16.1%
+137
+177
+140
+175
2
3		-1.04535-1.04957-0.30062
Chelsea
Brighton and Hove Albion		58.3%
19.1%		22.6%
+103
+235
+102
+235
2
1		-0.73685-0.74573-0.53950
Manchester City
Tottenham		59.3%
18.9%		21.8%
-265
+580
-280
+600
2
0		-0.34908-0.34432-0.52297
Liverpool
Aston Villa		62.6%
16.8%		20.6%
-129
+290
-128
+280
3
3		-1.56767-1.56715-1.57867
Arsenal
Manchester United		22.5%
53.5%		24.0%
-330
+825
-340
+860
1
0		-0.29600-0.28696-1.49290
Crystal Palace
Wolverhampton		24.2%
49.0%		26.8%
+128
+223
+125
+227
3
1		-0.85753-0.84239-1.41762
Brighton and Hove Albion
Newcastle United		34.8%
36.0%		29.2%
+415
-167
+400
-170
1
1		-1.59623-1.60589-1.23248
Burnley
Tottenham		15.0%
64.5%		20.5%
+750
-322
+680
-310
1
2		-0.30441-0.32294-0.43785
Sheffield United
Everton		18.9%
57.2%		23.9%
+615
-232
+634
-240
0
1		-0.39254-0.38396-0.55923
Manchester City
Fulham		81.0%
6.1%		12.9%
-460
+1175
-457
+1250
4
0		-0.22936-0.23460-0.21104
Manchester United
Crystal Palace		63.3%
15.4%		21.3%
+252
+101
+260
+105
0
4		-0.73230-0.73961-1.87308
Tottenham
Liverpool		20.7%
56.6%		22.7%
+515
-230
+515
-245
2
4		-0.39395-0.38505-0.56966
Aston Villa
Brighton and Hove Albion		38.4%
34.0%		27.6%
+168
+150
+165
+155
0
1		-0.94863-0.96362-1.08028
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.