English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Dec 26, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Arsenal
West Ham United		43.1%
30.2%		26.7%
-230
+650
-240
+650
5
2		-0.39282-0.39686-0.84218
Bournemouth
Wolverhampton		15.7%
62.4%		21.9%
+165
+170
+162
+170
4
2		-1.00354-1.00422-1.85342
Newcastle United
Crystal Palace		29.3%
42.4%		28.2%
+125
+225
+125
+225
1
1		-1.29609-1.27740-1.26588
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion		39.0%
33.3%		27.7%
+618
-250
+665
-270
1
1		-1.76902-1.75365-1.28518
West Ham United
Newcastle United		43.3%
30.0%		26.7%
+550
-212
+575
-215
2
0		-1.90455-1.94778-0.83734
Liverpool
Southampton		61.7%
17.3%		21.0%
-315
+850
-325
+870
3
2		-0.31034-0.31512-0.48242
Tottenham
Manchester City		13.8%
67.4%		18.8%
+605
-240
+650
-245
4
0		-1.98377-2.03991-1.98130
Brighton and Hove Albion
Bournemouth		44.6%
27.7%		27.6%
+185
+147
+178
+147
2
1		-1.07658-1.06767-0.80721
Wolverhampton
Fulham		49.8%
23.7%		26.4%
+495
-178
+480
-180
4
1		-1.81351-1.80205-0.69639
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa		26.4%
47.6%		26.1%
+405
-135
+430
-135
2
2		-1.37003-1.37070-1.34504
Chelsea
Leicester City		36.6%
36.2%		27.2%
-212
+555
-225
+600
2
1		-0.41806-0.40623-1.00441
Arsenal
Chelsea		27.0%
47.8%		25.2%
+145
+205
+146
+205
1
1		-1.26394-1.25187-1.38023
Leicester City
Manchester United		24.1%
51.4%		24.5%
+810
-305
+775
-305
0
3		-0.31552-0.32849-0.66614
Aston Villa
Liverpool		12.2%
70.3%		17.5%
+565
-205
+600
-220
0
2		-0.42768-0.40656-0.35253
Manchester City
Brighton and Hove Albion		75.5%
8.7%		15.8%
-124
+322
-130
+320
1
2		-1.46807-1.47841-2.44265
Fulham
Crystal Palace		24.4%
48.1%		27.5%
+126
+248
+125
+240
2
0		-0.84332-0.85170-1.40981
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.