English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Jan 4, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Brighton and Hove Albion
Bournemouth		44.6%
27.7%		27.6%
+256
+100
+250
+105
0
3		-0.71764-0.74417-1.28240
Chelsea
Aston Villa		52.5%
24.1%		23.4%
+238
+110
+220
+105
2
2		-1.41750-1.45985-1.45278
Burnley
Manchester United		10.2%
72.5%		17.3%
+460
-198
+450
-200
1
1		-1.68335-1.64046-1.75603
Crystal Palace
Fulham		39.5%
30.9%		29.6%
+257
+112
+255
+110
1
1		-1.32021-1.28497-1.21733
Sheffield United
Newcastle United		30.7%
40.2%		29.1%
+1200
-435
+1000
-460
1
5		-0.22828-0.24222-0.91245
Liverpool
West Ham United		61.0%
17.5%		21.5%
-180
+430
-180
+425
2
2		-1.62755-1.62597-1.53819
Manchester City
Brighton and Hove Albion		75.5%
8.7%		15.8%
-277
+700
-297
+720
4
0		-0.34281-0.32899-0.28116
Sheffield United
Manchester United		9.6%
73.1%		17.2%
+800
-325
+750
-334
2
4		-0.30345-0.31054-0.31277
Newcastle United
Crystal Palace		29.3%
42.4%		28.2%
+126
+212
+125
+200
0
2		-1.17270-1.14907-0.85710
Liverpool
Everton		55.9%
20.8%		23.2%
-250
+670
-260
+650
0
2		-2.07013-2.06168-1.56902
Bournemouth
Wolverhampton		15.7%
62.4%		21.9%
+148
+180
+146
+175
1
0		-0.93494-0.94551-1.85342
Chelsea
Arsenal		38.8%
34.2%		27.0%
+650
-245
+675
-250
0
5		-0.37568-0.37512-1.07236
Liverpool
Fulham		74.4%
9.2%		16.4%
-150
+370
-150
+400
3
1		-0.54521-0.53524-0.29610
Bournemouth
Aston Villa		17.1%
61.5%		21.4%
+300
-118
+285
-115
1
3		-0.64840-0.66124-0.48573
West Ham United
Crystal Palace		39.6%
32.2%		28.2%
+235
+120
+227
+120
2
5		-0.82184-0.82963-1.13314
Arsenal
Wolverhampton		41.1%
31.0%		27.9%
-360
+975
-370
+980
2
0		-0.28014-0.28336-0.88880
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.