English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Fulham
Newcastle United		26.9%
45.8%		27.2%
+324
-111
+310
-120
0
3		-0.66374-0.65732-0.78034
Sheffield United
Chelsea		11.9%
69.4%		18.7%
+1300
-485
+1200
-500
0
2		-0.21417-0.21622-0.36474
Newcastle United
Tottenham		14.6%
66.0%		19.5%
+242
+135
+235
+110
1
4		-0.82709-0.76942-0.41612
West Ham United
Fulham		49.3%
24.9%		25.9%
+236
+155
+216
+125
0
5		-0.90310-0.85266-1.39179
Chelsea
Everton		45.7%
29.0%		25.3%
+185
+240
+170
+160
0
2		-1.15195-0.99306-1.23763
Arsenal
Aston Villa		44.6%
29.4%		25.9%
+113
+260
+105
+261
0
1		-1.28526-1.31819-1.22295
Burnley
Brighton and Hove Albion		29.3%
41.9%		28.8%
+565
-190
+570
-198
1
1		-1.56566-1.57364-1.24431
Bournemouth
Manchester United		6.7%
80.0%		13.3%
+455
-152
+410
-153
3
0		-1.70992-1.64496-2.69681
Liverpool
Crystal Palace		67.1%
13.0%		19.9%
-200
+600
-210
+625
2
1		-0.42974-0.40470-0.39900
West Ham United
Tottenham		21.9%
55.1%		22.9%
+395
-135
+365
-145
2
1		-1.60839-1.57818-1.51754
Newcastle United
Everton		19.7%
57.4%		22.9%
+140
+220
+135
+215
0
3		-1.18202-1.17571-0.55513
Manchester City
Aston Villa		72.3%
11.0%		16.7%
-140
+430
-145
+400
0
1		-1.67068-1.63619-2.20482
Chelsea
Manchester United		27.9%
47.1%		25.0%
+152
+190
+145
+180
1
2		-1.08397-1.07254-0.75315
Bournemouth
Crystal Palace		21.7%
52.4%		25.9%
+245
+131
+225
+133
2
0		-1.25089-1.21258-1.52717
Liverpool
Sheffield United		69.9%
11.2%		18.9%
-575
+1450
-600
+1400
2
0		-0.19314-0.19477-0.35852
Burnley
Wolverhampton		22.5%
51.3%		26.2%
+320
-104
+320
-110
0
1		-0.69537-0.69473-0.66719
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.