English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 9, 2025

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Brighton and Hove Albion
Crystal Palace 		32.0%
38.5%		29.5%
+207
+140
+220
+132
2.15
o2½-118
u2½+102
o2½-120
u2½+115
2nd H
56:00		0
0
Bournemouth
Aston Villa 		17.1%
61.5%		21.4%
+227
+131
+220
+130
2.87
o2½-115
u2½+101
o2½-115
u2½+100
2nd H
51:00		0
2

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Tottenham
Crystal Palace		53.7%
22.0%		24.3%
-124
+384
-130
+360
2
1		-0.59966-0.60693-0.62166
Fulham
Tottenham		11.5%
70.7%		17.7%
+568
-197
+560
-215
0
2		-0.43163-0.42557-0.34657
West Ham United
Aston Villa		33.7%
39.7%		26.6%
+345
-125
+330
-125
1
4		-0.61402-0.62822-0.92455
Manchester United
Sheffield United		66.5%
13.2%		20.3%
-250
+675
-292
+690
2
1		-0.35355-0.33889-0.40828
Arsenal
Chelsea		27.0%
47.8%		25.2%
+135
+235
+135
+225
2
2		-1.23546-1.21878-1.38023
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United		34.2%
36.4%		29.4%
+693
-209
+700
-230
0
4		-0.41539-0.40191-1.01063
Brighton and Hove Albion
Manchester City		6.3%
80.5%		13.2%
+750
-275
+740
-267
1
2		-0.33475-0.33127-0.21698
Wolverhampton
Bournemouth		54.1%
21.0%		24.9%
+225
+136
+210
+130
2
1		-1.19972-1.16970-0.61389
Everton
Liverpool		15.4%
64.4%		20.2%
+695
-254
+710
-260
0
2		-0.35906-0.34335-0.44012
Manchester City
Arsenal		60.5%
17.6%		21.9%
+152
+203
+146
+200
0
1		-1.13538-1.13797-1.73875
Aston Villa
Wolverhampton		30.4%
43.0%		26.6%
+108
+262
+100
+255
1
1		-1.32927-1.35899-1.32463
Newcastle United
West Ham United		23.2%
52.4%		24.4%
+112
+249
+105
+244
2
2		-1.33644-1.35596-1.40940
Liverpool
Brighton and Hove Albion		67.0%
13.2%		19.8%
+110
+228
+110
+225
2
2		-1.45406-1.41964-1.62030
Bournemouth
Everton		13.7%
66.8%		19.5%
+315
-109
+305
-115
0
3		-0.67836-0.67303-0.40360
Chelsea
Burnley		60.8%
17.3%		21.9%
-143
+437
-145
+390
4
1		-0.55462-0.57552-0.49720
Chelsea
Fulham		67.4%
13.4%		19.2%
+125
+257
+118
+260
2
0		-0.82114-0.81202-0.39447
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.92825 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.93679 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-1.14097
-0.21272
-0.20418

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.