English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Chelsea
Manchester United		27.9%
47.1%		25.0%
+113
+265
+115
+259
1
1		-1.30192-1.28172-1.38633
Leeds United
Crystal Palace		32.4%
38.9%		28.7%
+206
+147
+190
+141
0
0		-1.27001-1.28681-1.24963
Everton
Liverpool		15.4%
64.4%		20.2%
+1496
-480
+1600
-540
0
2		-0.21343-0.20517-0.44012
Southampton
Brighton and Hove Albion		39.0%
33.3%		27.7%
+291
+112
+285
+105
2
2		-1.24511-1.25400-1.28518
Wolverhampton
Burnley		42.6%
28.9%		28.5%
+210
+161
+192
+165
0
1		-0.97742-1.01214-1.24292
West Ham United
Chelsea		18.6%
60.1%		21.3%
+714
-225
+675
-240
0
1		-0.38678-0.39576-0.50951
Aston Villa
Leicester City		21.0%
56.3%		22.7%
+152
+205
+144
+195
0
0		-1.26312-1.25520-1.48096
Watford
Manchester City		3.9%
86.2%		10.0%
+2512
-820
+1975
-840
1
5		-0.13643-0.16175-0.14880
Newcastle United
Norwich City		40.5%
30.8%		28.7%
+128
+254
+123
+250
3
0		-0.83926-0.83850-0.90281
Manchester United
Arsenal		44.4%
29.2%		26.3%
+270
+105
+275
-101
1
3		-0.74579-0.73041-1.23032
Southampton
Burnley		41.8%
30.7%		27.5%
+186
+170
+172
+170
0
2		-1.01162-1.02912-1.17996
Brighton and Hove Albion
Manchester City		6.3%
80.5%		13.2%
+1450
-408
+1350
-450
0
3		-0.23556-0.24577-0.21698
Arsenal
Chelsea		27.0%
47.8%		25.2%
+348
-105
+335
-115
4
2		-1.50896-1.51481-1.30959
Leicester City
Everton		40.4%
32.6%		26.9%
+191
+166
+190
+158
1
1		-1.22687-1.23943-1.31182
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United		34.2%
36.4%		29.4%
+257
+132
+236
+130
0
1		-0.86024-0.87498-1.01063
Manchester United
Liverpool		28.6%
45.3%		26.1%
+827
-288
+825
-310
0
4		-0.32180-0.32147-0.79286
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.