English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Burnley
Sheffield United		33.0%
36.1%		30.9%
+155
+180
+150
+177
0
1		-1.06016-1.06450-1.01915
Everton
Manchester City		17.6%
68.1%		14.3%
+964
-325
+850
-350
0
5		-0.28578-0.29721-0.38353
Crystal Palace
Liverpool		16.4%
68.6%		15.0%
+1690
-550
+1600
-580
0
2		-0.17890-0.18672-0.37704
Tottenham
Leicester City		33.9%
39.6%		26.4%
+320
-120
+320
-115
4
2		-1.44894-1.45179-1.08031
West Bromwich Albion
Leeds United		24.5%
54.2%		21.3%
+475
-182
+450
-189
1
3		-0.46729-0.47605-0.61183
Newcastle United
Fulham		36.7%
34.3%		29.1%
+205
+150
+190
+144
2
0		-1.12077-1.09294-1.00337
Chelsea
Aston Villa		48.2%
28.8%		23.0%
-215
+610
-230
+610
1
2		-1.98719-2.00515-1.24556
Brighton and Hove Albion
Arsenal		23.8%
53.9%		22.3%
+385
-145
+380
-150
0
2		-0.56002-0.55621-0.61802
Liverpool
Burnley		63.5%
18.9%		17.7%
-323
+900
-360
+890
3
0		-0.29180-0.28782-0.45449
West Ham United
West Bromwich Albion		53.7%
25.0%		21.3%
-145
+407
-150
+400
3
1		-0.54435-0.54550-0.62191
Arsenal
Crystal Palace		46.9%
27.5%		25.6%
-160
+485
-168
+475
3
1		-0.50690-0.51073-0.75754
Aston Villa
Tottenham		26.8%
51.6%		21.5%
+425
-160
+435
-169
2
1		-1.68735-1.71380-1.31524
Sheffield United
Newcastle United		32.1%
38.8%		29.1%
+340
-120
+325
-120
0
1		-0.64139-0.65247-0.94709
Wolverhampton
Everton		31.6%
41.7%		26.6%
+390
-125
+394
-130
0
1		-0.61583-0.61131-0.87448
Leicester City
Chelsea		31.6%
43.0%		25.4%
+440
-140
+450
-142
1
2		-0.57359-0.56777-0.84411
Manchester City
Brighton and Hove Albion		70.5%
15.7%		13.8%
-225
+650
-225
+625
2
3		-2.04957-2.02753-1.85138
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.