English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Manchester City
Crystal Palace		70.5%
15.4%		14.1%
-300
+964
-300
+950
2
0		-0.31315-0.31934-0.34953
Leicester City
Southampton		43.6%
31.2%		25.2%
-118
+330
-115
+296
1
1		-1.05978-1.04704-0.99776
Crystal Palace
Leicester City		22.6%
56.2%		21.2%
+693
-225
+725
-240
1
2		-0.39842-0.39644-0.57656
West Bromwich Albion
Aston Villa		21.7%
60.7%		17.6%
+280
+111
+257
+110
2
2		-1.06339-1.05646-1.01274
Manchester United
Leeds United		58.1%
22.6%		19.3%
-125
+341
-121
+304
0
0		-1.06463-1.03750-1.01559
Burnley
Wolverhampton		26.7%
47.4%		25.8%
+252
+135
+285
+122
4
0		-1.28518-1.37050-1.31916
Brighton and Hove Albion
Sheffield United		34.8%
34.3%		30.9%
-170
+550
-176
+550
0
1		-1.90468-1.91488-1.06924
Chelsea
West Ham United		47.1%
29.2%		23.7%
-140
+450
-145
+400
1
0		-0.55405-0.56854-0.75328
Newcastle United
Liverpool		15.4%
71.8%		12.8%
+1254
-460
+1175
-415
1
1		-1.43112-1.41114-1.10030
Everton
Arsenal		30.4%
43.9%		25.7%
+285
+110
+290
+100
1
0		-1.35720-1.40222-1.19158
West Bromwich Albion
Leicester City		15.6%
72.2%		12.3%
+475
-155
+480
-160
0
3		-0.52911-0.52751-0.32613
Manchester City
Aston Villa		66.4%
18.7%		14.9%
-295
+950
-300
+850
2
1		-0.31882-0.33205-0.40967
Southampton
Tottenham		27.2%
51.0%		21.8%
+320
-115
+300
-115
1
2		-0.65792-0.67002-0.67295
Brighton and Hove Albion
Chelsea		21.2%
60.6%		18.2%
+480
-150
+460
-145
0
0		-1.16930-1.16493-1.02643
Liverpool
Leeds United		61.8%
20.4%		17.7%
-160
+409
-165
+400
1
1		-1.08800-1.08456-1.03446
Burnley
Manchester United		17.4%
67.1%		15.5%
+790
-265
+800
-278
1
3		-0.35041-0.34365-0.39849
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.