English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 22, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Watford
Southampton		15.9%
62.9%		21.2%
+455
-143
+435
-150
2
1		-1.72625-1.71336-1.83653
Norwich City
Leeds United		21.5%
53.2%		25.3%
+450
-155
+440
-165
1
2		-0.51565-0.52143-0.63188
Wolverhampton
Everton		29.3%
43.9%		26.7%
+259
+130
+245
+125
1
0		-1.30273-1.28786-1.22642
Aston Villa
West Ham United		31.8%
42.1%		26.1%
+201
+160
+190
+151
1
2		-0.97075-0.96551-0.86448
Newcastle United
Chelsea		12.2%
70.1%		17.7%
+742
-240
+720
-245
0
1		-0.37622-0.38747-0.35465
Tottenham
Manchester United		24.1%
52.0%		23.8%
+222
+135
+205
+132
2
3		-0.87203-0.88919-0.65314
Liverpool
Brighton and Hove Albion		67.0%
13.2%		19.8%
-205
+615
-200
+568
2
0		-0.41913-0.43200-0.40081
Everton
Tottenham		25.7%
49.9%		24.3%
+409
-133
+440
-155
0
5		-0.58282-0.54611-0.69433
Manchester United
Manchester City		20.1%
57.1%		22.8%
+695
-225
+696
-250
1
4		-0.38256-0.37755-0.56103
Arsenal
Watford		64.6%
14.3%		21.1%
-184
+621
-200
+600
3
2		-0.45732-0.45471-0.43686
West Ham United
Liverpool		12.8%
68.8%		18.4%
+1106
-348
+1000
-410
0
1		-0.25701-0.26356-0.37365
Crystal Palace
Wolverhampton		24.2%
49.0%		26.8%
+253
+145
+240
+139
2
0		-1.27522-1.26862-1.41762
Brighton and Hove Albion
Newcastle United		34.8%
36.0%		29.2%
+200
+174
+192
+175
1
2		-1.02360-1.03987-1.02026
Chelsea
Burnley		60.8%
17.3%		21.9%
-183
+648
-205
+645
4
0		-0.45646-0.44354-0.49720
Southampton
Aston Villa		33.5%
40.3%		26.2%
+234
+126
+220
+125
0
4		-0.83635-0.85668-0.90887
Leeds United
Leicester City		16.7%
62.1%		21.2%
+255
+105
+317
-128
0
1		-0.74665-0.62144-0.47573
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.