English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Nov 22, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Leeds United
Burnley		34.7%
36.2%		29.1%
+105
+260
+120
+243
4
0		-0.74286-0.80044-1.05932
Manchester City
Newcastle United		73.7%
14.5%		11.8%
-295
+850
-300
+700
4
3		-0.31612-0.33837-0.30486
Liverpool
Manchester United		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+140
+185
+148
+180
4
2		-0.90912-0.94569-1.01316
Everton
Aston Villa		37.7%
35.5%		26.8%
+148
+200
+142
+195
0
0		-1.03198-1.02808-1.00526
Arsenal
Chelsea		30.4%
44.7%		25.0%
+336
-106
+340
-105
1
0		-1.50166-1.51467-1.19116
Crystal Palace
Southampton		29.4%
45.0%		25.6%
+325
-115
+315
-110
1
3		-0.65849-0.67417-0.79789
Leicester City
Manchester United		28.5%
47.4%		24.1%
+108
+270
+104
+275
2
1		-0.75854-0.75078-1.25527
Burnley
Fulham		36.6%
33.4%		29.9%
+235
+125
+230
+120
2
0		-1.24122-1.24351-1.00417
West Bromwich Albion
Arsenal		16.3%
70.2%		13.5%
+600
-192
+575
-205
1
3		-0.43970-0.44035-0.35424
Everton
West Ham United		36.7%
35.9%		27.4%
+255
+115
+250
+110
1
0		-1.29507-1.30324-1.00291
Manchester United
Aston Villa		52.9%
25.8%		21.3%
-125
+348
-125
+340
3
1		-0.61314-0.63275-0.63754
Brighton and Hove Albion
Wolverhampton		28.3%
45.3%		26.4%
+105
+315
+115
+290
1
2		-1.45004-1.38525-0.79164
Southampton
Liverpool		20.1%
63.6%		16.4%
+850
-315
+850
-331
0
2		-0.30729-0.30312-0.45323
Chelsea
Manchester City		23.3%
57.4%		19.3%
+303
+107
+285
+105
2
1		-1.41878-1.39481-1.45663
Crystal Palace
Sheffield United		34.2%
34.4%		31.4%
+154
+200
+155
+195
2
0		-0.96268-0.98163-1.07157
Tottenham
Leeds United		49.5%
27.6%		23.0%
-115
+300
+100
+301
1
3		-1.42060-1.39388-1.28819
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.