English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Dec 29, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Aston Villa
Leicester City		21.0%
56.3%		22.7%
-109
+303
-115
+330
2
1		-0.68330-0.65585-1.56122
Brighton and Hove Albion
Arsenal		17.9%
59.0%		23.0%
+715
-260
+725
-285
1
1		-1.73110-1.73200-1.46959
Newcastle United
Bournemouth		41.3%
30.7%		28.0%
+168
+157
+170
+152
1
1		-1.34033-1.33507-1.27361
Chelsea
Wolverhampton		48.9%
25.9%		25.2%
-111
+295
-115
+295
6
2		-0.67113-0.66672-0.71445
Arsenal
Aston Villa		44.6%
29.4%		25.9%
-138
+388
-135
+360
2
0		-0.57327-0.59531-0.80694
Leicester City
Fulham		62.6%
15.9%		21.5%
+320
-110
+292
-105
1
2		-0.67480-0.70948-1.83942
West Ham United
Crystal Palace		39.6%
32.2%		28.2%
+285
-106
+287
-105
2
0		-1.37833-1.39332-0.92723
Everton
Tottenham		25.7%
49.9%		24.3%
+720
-272
+700
-270
0
4		-0.33978-0.34784-0.69433
Manchester United
Brighton and Hove Albion		63.3%
15.6%		21.0%
+187
+140
+190
+150
1
2		-0.91021-0.93491-1.85604
Tottenham
Leicester City		32.6%
40.9%		26.5%
-142
+365
-150
+365
1
1		-1.49241-1.50512-1.32878
Manchester City
Chelsea		54.5%
22.2%		23.3%
-104
+282
+100
+258
2
0		-0.70457-0.73278-0.60636
Aston Villa
West Ham United		31.8%
42.1%		26.1%
+186
+148
+179
+145
2
1		-1.08480-1.06944-1.14630
Wolverhampton
Arsenal		24.3%
50.0%		25.7%
+1700
-640
+1825
-750
0
2		-0.17931-0.16727-0.69295
Brighton and Hove Albion
Everton		22.2%
53.3%		24.5%
+142
+203
+145
+196
3
0		-0.91634-0.93964-1.50648
Southampton
Newcastle United		43.1%
30.5%		26.3%
+670
-250
+670
-280
0
1		-0.36540-0.35277-1.18721
Fulham
Manchester United		7.8%
77.4%		14.7%
+417
-150
+405
-156
0
1		-0.53914-0.53981-0.25603
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.