English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for May 3, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Arsenal
Wolverhampton		41.1%
31.0%		27.9%
-162
+490
-174
+530
1
0		-0.51196-0.47490-0.88880
Everton
Brighton and Hove Albion		44.4%
28.8%		26.9%
+462
-145
+450
-150
1
0		-1.75869-1.75210-0.81292
Newcastle United
Southampton		23.6%
52.3%		24.1%
-215
+565
-230
+590
3
1		-0.41432-0.40206-1.44515
Wolverhampton
Chelsea		19.5%
57.9%		22.5%
+615
-230
+625
-253
1
3		-0.38280-0.36889-0.54569
Tottenham
Everton		40.7%
33.0%		26.3%
+180
+158
+175
+162
2
3		-0.98179-1.00185-1.10891
Brighton and Hove Albion
Manchester United		11.4%
70.7%		17.9%
+220
+135
+220
+125
3
1		-1.19066-1.20104-2.17516
Aston Villa
Arsenal		22.6%
53.8%		23.6%
+510
-170
+510
-175
2
2		-1.48439-1.49094-1.44409
Crystal Palace
West Ham United		25.4%
48.4%		26.2%
+167
+187
+160
+180
2
0		-1.00775-1.00376-1.37113
Fulham
Leicester City		11.6%
70.0%		18.4%
-126
+365
-130
+360
2
0		-0.61606-0.61530-2.15546
Bournemouth
Newcastle United		24.0%
50.2%		25.8%
+415
-150
+400
-160
4
1		-1.67078-1.65370-1.42587
Southampton
Manchester United		14.9%
65.9%		19.2%
+1000
-340
+1200
-340
1
3		-0.28768-0.26870-0.41715
Tottenham
Arsenal		34.4%
38.5%		27.0%
+685
-250
+725
-285
1
2		-0.36298-0.34001-0.95358
Aston Villa
Everton		27.6%
47.4%		25.0%
+133
+245
+130
+255
1
0		-0.87693-0.86147-1.28735
Crystal Palace
Leicester City		16.3%
61.6%		22.1%
-101
+285
-105
+280
2
0		-0.72017-0.71719-1.81315
Wolverhampton
Newcastle United		44.0%
28.7%		27.3%
+735
-265
+750
-300
0
3		-0.34424-0.33596-1.24956
Bournemouth
Chelsea		8.3%
77.1%		14.6%
+482
-190
+475
-200
2
2		-1.60336-1.62465-1.92648
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.