English Premier League Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedLiverpool
Manchester United 		36.3%
35.9%		27.8%
+145
+190
+150
+185
1.20
1.18		2.38
o2½-130
u2¾-122
o2½-125
u2½+125
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for May 1, 2021
Games for Feb 10, 2026

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Newcastle United
Manchester United 		9.8%
74.0%		16.1%
+172
+147
+173
+147
3.19
o3+100
u3-108
o3+105
u3+120
FINAL
FINAL		0
1

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Manchester United
Chelsea		37.5%
35.8%		26.7%
+220
+136
+215
+135
0
0		-0.70470-0.70384-0.69344
Burnley
Tottenham		21.8%
58.8%		19.3%
+625
-200
+560
-190
0
4		-0.18805-0.20805-0.31568
Arsenal
Leicester City		32.4%
40.6%		27.0%
+210
+145
+197
+155
3
1		-0.81771-0.77230-0.81308
Fulham
Crystal Palace		27.9%
44.9%		27.2%
+128
+252
+120
+260
0
0		-0.71654-0.72316-0.72109
Wolverhampton
Newcastle United		41.8%
31.1%		27.2%
+120
+282
+130
+275
1
1		-0.73074-0.72272-0.70406
Aston Villa
Leeds United		38.0%
35.1%		27.0%
+260
+110
+237
+110
1
0		-0.99853-0.95732-0.65395
Brighton and Hove Albion
West Bromwich Albion		46.3%
28.4%		25.3%
-120
+370
-121
+375
0
1		-1.27075-1.28111-0.96848
West Ham United
Manchester City		15.6%
72.1%		12.3%
+1082
-375
+1100
-390
1
2		-0.10180-0.09957-0.19654
Southampton
Leeds United		38.4%
34.6%		27.0%
+235
+116
+233
+115
0
3		-0.49761-0.49812-0.74703
Crystal Palace
Brighton and Hove Albion		32.3%
38.3%		29.4%
+450
-127
+436
-130
2
1		-1.40535-1.39364-0.48224
Newcastle United
Manchester United		17.3%
68.6%		14.1%
+850
-290
+875
-300
1
3		-0.13239-0.12817-0.37752
Manchester City
Arsenal		55.1%
23.9%		21.0%
-205
+625
-215
+580
1
0		-0.18665-0.19513-0.27294
Leicester City
Aston Villa		44.1%
30.8%		25.1%
+100
+270
+120
+260
2
1		-0.43214-0.47692-0.36863
Tottenham
West Ham United		43.2%
31.6%		25.2%
+140
+210
+150
+197
1
2		-0.82929-0.78298-1.15293
Everton
Liverpool		22.3%
58.6%		19.0%
+750
-250
+700
-275
2
0		-1.95602-1.92669-0.88278
West Bromwich Albion
Burnley		25.5%
50.9%		23.6%
+275
+118
+280
+115
0
0		-0.72948-0.73316-0.69330
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.17141 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.15992 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.84555
0.32586
0.31437

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.