English Premier League Predictions

Updated 26 sec ago

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Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
04/06/2025 03:30 PM	Manchester City Manchester United	48.0% 26.5%	25.4%	+111 +242 +110 +230	0 0	-1.34827-1.34657	-1.37058
04/06/2025 01:00 PM	Southampton Tottenham	21.6% 56.0%	22.4%	+700 -275 +665 -265	1 3	-0.34338-0.35962	-0.57955
04/06/2025 01:00 PM	Liverpool Fulham	74.4% 9.2%	16.4%	-110 +337 -112 +320	2 3	-1.50476-1.47828	-2.38923
04/05/2025 02:00 PM	Brighton and Hove Albion Crystal Palace	32.0% 38.5%	29.5%	+187 +155 +185 +155	1 2	-0.96609-0.97678	-0.95332
04/05/2025 02:00 PM	Bournemouth West Ham United	16.4% 62.2%	21.4%	+140 +202 +135 +201	2 2	-1.28573-1.29532	-1.53982
04/05/2025 11:30 AM	Arsenal Everton	38.0% 34.3%	27.7%	+110 +310 +110 +425	1 1	-1.19521-1.18375	-1.28428
04/03/2025 07:00 PM	Tottenham Chelsea	28.9% 46.2%	24.9%	+380 -145 +360 -150	0 1	-0.54910-0.54967	-0.77260
04/02/2025 07:00 PM	Everton Liverpool	15.4% 64.4%	20.2%	+650 -205 +650 -220	0 1	-0.42951-0.41923	-0.44012
04/02/2025 06:45 PM	Aston Villa Brighton and Hove Albion	38.4% 34.0%	27.6%	+211 +135 +205 +130	3 0	-1.16299-1.16235	-0.95667
04/02/2025 06:45 PM	Crystal Palace Southampton	25.8% 48.3%	25.8%	-165 +475 -165 +470	1 1	-1.46915-1.44274	-1.35325
04/02/2025 06:45 PM	Leicester City Manchester City	13.9% 66.6%	19.4%	+1300 -480 +1275 -560	0 2	-0.21452-0.20949	-0.40596
04/01/2025 06:45 PM	Fulham Arsenal	12.6% 67.8%	19.6%	+665 -202 +650 -200	1 2	-0.43645-0.44013	-0.38889
04/01/2025 06:45 PM	West Ham United Wolverhampton	31.2% 41.5%	27.3%	+225 +140 +230 +145	0 1	-0.90887-0.91479	-0.88015
03/16/2025 07:00 PM	Manchester United Leicester City	42.2% 31.1%	26.6%	-123 +352 -115 +335	3 0	-0.62899-0.65666	-0.86171
03/16/2025 01:30 PM	Chelsea Arsenal	38.8% 34.2%	27.0%	+440 -138 +440 -135	0 1	-0.57969-0.58738	-1.07236
03/16/2025 01:30 PM	Tottenham Fulham	63.2% 15.9%	20.8%	+303 -115 +305 -110	0 2	-0.66002-0.67023	-1.83772

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	3	1-1-1 (0.500)	0	-1.06547
Sportsbooks	3	1-1-1 (0.500)	0	-1.06149
DRatings	3	1-1-1 (0.500)	0	-1.44645	-0.38098 -0.38496

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win Premiership	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)	25.2	4.6	8.2	83.7	96.7%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)	19.8	7.5	10.7	70.2	1.8%	84.1%	7.7%	0.0%
3	Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)	20.1	10.0	7.9	68.2	1.0%	70.8%	13.5%	0.0%
4	Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)	18.2	10.0	9.8	64.3	0.0%	42.5%	19.5%	0.0%
5	West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)	16.7	11.4	9.9	60.0	0.0%	11.8%	10.7%	0.0%
6	Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)	18.8	8.9	10.4	66.7	0.4%	61.9%	19.0%	0.0%
7	Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)	16.7	12.8	8.5	58.7	0.1%	8.0%	7.5%	0.0%
8	Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)	16.2	14.5	7.4	55.9	0.0%	3.7%	4.1%	0.0%
9	Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)	16.7	11.2	10.1	60.2	0.0%	14.8%	13.4%	0.0%
10	Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)	16.0	14.3	7.7	55.7	0.0%	2.2%	4.2%	0.0%
11	Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)	14.4	17.5	6.0	49.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.3%
12	Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)	13.1	15.0	9.9	49.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
13	Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)	13.3	15.5	9.2	49.0	0.0%	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
14	Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)	12.0	17.3	8.7	44.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.8%
15	Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)	9.2	13.9	14.8	42.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	6.0%
16	Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)	11.4	17.4	9.2	43.3	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	5.3%
17	Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)	10.8	19.5	7.7	40.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	14.5%
17	Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)	8.3	18.3	11.4	36.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	32.5%
20	Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)	6.9	22.8	8.3	29.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.