English Premier League Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United		34.2%
36.4%		29.4%
+430
-148
+420
-150
0
5		-0.54516-0.55227-1.01063
Manchester United
Newcastle United		67.2%
13.7%		19.1%
+452
-160
+450
-165
1
4		-0.51263-0.50503-1.99136
Tottenham
Wolverhampton		43.9%
29.6%		26.5%
+221
+127
+212
+140
2
4		-0.85296-0.89416-1.21686
West Ham United
Liverpool		12.8%
68.8%		18.4%
+950
-355
+925
-354
1
2		-0.28303-0.29050-0.37365
Aston Villa
Southampton		32.2%
41.8%		25.9%
-183
+478
-200
+515
3
0		-0.46788-0.45106-1.13224
Leicester City
Brighton and Hove Albion		53.0%
22.2%		24.7%
+885
-325
+995
-360
2
2		-1.82412-1.82455-1.39651
Crystal Palace
Manchester City		6.3%
80.3%		13.4%
+433
-158
+450
-160
2
5		-0.52243-0.50000-0.21940
Newcastle United
Leicester City		14.6%
65.3%		20.1%
-220
+645
-225
+645
3
0		-0.40431-0.39993-1.92717
Manchester City
Manchester United		48.0%
26.5%		25.4%
+111
+242
+110
+230
0
0		-1.34827-1.34657-1.37058
Southampton
Tottenham		21.6%
56.0%		22.4%
+700
-275
+665
-265
1
3		-0.34338-0.35962-0.57955
Liverpool
Fulham		74.4%
9.2%		16.4%
-110
+337
-112
+320
2
3		-1.50476-1.47828-2.38923
Brighton and Hove Albion
Crystal Palace		32.0%
38.5%		29.5%
+187
+155
+185
+155
1
2		-0.96609-0.97678-0.95332
Bournemouth
West Ham United		16.4%
62.2%		21.4%
+140
+202
+135
+201
2
2		-1.28573-1.29532-1.53982
Arsenal
Everton		38.0%
34.3%		27.7%
+110
+310
+110
+425
1
1		-1.19521-1.18375-1.28428
Tottenham
Chelsea		28.9%
46.2%		24.9%
+380
-145
+360
-150
0
1		-0.54910-0.54967-0.77260
Everton
Liverpool		15.4%
64.4%		20.2%
+650
-205
+650
-220
0
1		-0.42951-0.41923-0.44012
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.