English Premier League Predictions

Updated

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Games for May 2, 2021
Games for Dec 15, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Newcastle United
Sunderland		53.1%
21.2%		25.7%
+115
+257
+125
+245
0
1		-1.30708-1.27500-1.55315
Aston Villa
West Ham United		31.8%
42.1%		26.1%
+122
+240
+120
+275
3
2		-0.83135-0.79536-1.14630
Manchester City
Crystal Palace		75.3%
8.6%		16.1%
-115
+320
-120
+320
3
0		-0.66054-0.64219-0.28317
Wolverhampton
Arsenal		24.3%
50.0%		25.7%
+2200
-800
+2300
-840
1
2		-0.15315-0.15496-0.69295
Fulham
Burnley		26.2%
45.8%		28.0%
-103
+305
+100
+295
3
2		-0.71156-0.73934-1.33891
Brighton and Hove Albion
Liverpool		9.6%
73.7%		16.7%
+355
-133
+350
-133
0
2		-0.58789-0.59753-0.30560
Everton
Chelsea		22.1%
54.9%		22.9%
+410
-140
+390
-136
0
2		-0.56982-0.59113-0.59957
Manchester United
Wolverhampton		54.5%
21.5%		23.9%
-155
+457
-160
+420
4
1		-0.52579-0.52707-0.60635
Crystal Palace
Fulham		39.5%
30.9%		29.6%
+190
+155
+180
+158
2
1		-1.09874-1.07455-0.92826
West Ham United
Brighton and Hove Albion		39.2%
32.7%		28.1%
+450
-163
+440
-170
1
1		-1.49219-1.51386-1.27065
Liverpool
Leeds United		67.6%
13.2%		19.1%
-127
+347
-135
+355
3
3		-1.41321-1.43906-1.65444
Sunderland
Manchester City		2.8%
88.7%		8.4%
+1025
-377
+990
-390
0
3		-0.27016-0.27123-0.11979
Burnley
Newcastle United		32.3%
38.8%		28.9%
+880
-315
+860
-310
1
2		-0.31009-0.31467-0.94714
Chelsea
Bournemouth		71.0%
11.5%		17.5%
+112
+235
+110
+230
0
0		-1.38147-1.38629-1.74446
Arsenal
Aston Villa		44.6%
29.4%		25.9%
-107
+335
-112
+335
1
2		-1.50135-1.51159-1.22295
West Ham United
Manchester United		15.1%
65.2%		19.7%
+650
-245
+650
-250
1
1		-1.68378-1.66400-1.62547
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 02/16/21
#TeamWLTPtsWin PremiershipChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Manchester City (16-2-5, 53 pts)25.24.68.283.796.7%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Manchester United (13-4-7, 46 pts)19.87.510.770.21.8%84.1%7.7%0.0%
3Leicester City (14-6-4, 46 pts)20.110.07.968.21.0%70.8%13.5%0.0%
4Chelsea (12-6-6, 42 pts)18.210.09.864.30.0%42.5%19.5%0.0%
5West Ham United (12-6-6, 42 pts)16.711.49.960.00.0%11.8%10.7%0.0%
6Liverpool (11-6-7, 40 pts)18.88.910.466.70.4%61.9%19.0%0.0%
7Everton (11-7-4, 37 pts)16.712.88.558.70.1%8.0%7.5%0.0%
8Aston Villa (11-8-3, 36 pts)16.214.57.455.90.0%3.7%4.1%0.0%
9Tottenham (10-7-6, 36 pts)16.711.210.160.20.0%14.8%13.4%0.0%
10Arsenal (10-10-4, 34 pts)16.014.37.755.70.0%2.2%4.2%0.0%
11Leeds United (10-11-2, 32 pts)14.417.56.049.40.0%0.0%0.2%0.3%
12Wolverhampton (8-10-6, 30 pts)13.115.09.949.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
13Southampton (8-10-5, 29 pts)13.315.59.249.00.0%0.2%0.2%0.3%
14Crystal Palace (8-11-5, 29 pts)12.017.38.744.70.0%0.0%0.0%1.8%
15Brighton and Hove Albion (5-8-11, 26 pts)9.213.914.842.50.0%0.0%0.0%6.0%
16Burnley (7-11-5, 26 pts)11.417.49.243.30.0%0.0%0.0%5.3%
17Newcastle United (7-13-4, 25 pts)10.819.57.740.20.0%0.0%0.0%14.5%
17Watford (6-14-9, 27 pts)8.318.311.436.40.0%0.0%0.0%32.5%
20Norwich City (5-18-6, 21 pts)6.922.88.329.00.0%0.0%0.0%95.1%

Predictions Methodology

The English Premier League projections are based on our proprietary algorithm which we use to project out soccer matches. The EPL is a twenty team league which plays 38 games through out the season. Currently, the top four teams receive a draw to the Champions League and the fifth place team receives a draw to Europa League. Each year, the 18th through 20th placed team gets relegated to the English Championship division.