France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 18 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
05/29/2026 06:45 PM	Saint-Etienne Nice	29.9% 44.1%	26.0%	+367 -105 +350 -105	1 4	-0.70342-0.71490	-0.81814
05/26/2026 06:45 PM	Nice Saint-Etienne	35.5% 37.4%	27.1%	+179 +175 +185 +170	0 0	-1.19713-1.19415	-1.30409
05/17/2026 07:00 PM	Monaco Strasbourg	34.9% 38.0%	27.1%	-102 +240 -104 +230	4 5	-1.25755-1.23988	-0.96874
05/17/2026 07:00 PM	Angers Brest	33.8% 38.2%	28.1%	+305 -102 +295 -103	1 1	-1.29583-1.32867	-1.27093
05/17/2026 07:00 PM	Metz Nice	31.2% 41.3%	27.5%	+925 -350 +900 -345	0 0	-1.86730-1.86724	-1.29160
05/17/2026 07:00 PM	Rennes Marseille	25.6% 46.8%	27.6%	+297 -120 +285 -110	1 3	-0.64097-0.67084	-0.75931
05/13/2026 05:00 PM	Strasbourg Brest	39.9% 31.6%	28.5%	+115 +238 +115 +240	2 1	-0.79982-0.80180	-0.91879
05/10/2026 07:00 PM	Lorient Metz	27.2% 44.1%	28.7%	+133 +203 +134 +200	4 0	-0.88071-0.89089	-1.30052
05/10/2026 07:00 PM	Strasbourg Angers	38.3% 33.3%	28.5%	+158 +178 +155 +185	1 1	-1.28526-1.28111	-1.25671
05/10/2026 07:00 PM	Lyon Toulouse	83.8% 4.9%	11.3%	-113 +315 -125 +320	1 2	-1.45719-1.48391	-3.02269
05/10/2026 07:00 PM	Lille Monaco	50.7% 25.2%	24.1%	+159 +165 +165 +165	1 0	-0.98484-0.99571	-0.67966
05/10/2026 07:00 PM	Brest Paris Saint-Germain	2.8% 90.0%	7.2%	+1300 -515 +1450 -585	0 1	-0.21225-0.20193	-0.10493
05/03/2026 06:45 PM	Rennes Lyon	19.8% 56.4%	23.8%	+238 +110 +228 +110	2 4	-0.77655-0.78522	-0.57286
05/03/2026 03:15 PM	Toulouse Strasbourg	6.8% 78.5%	14.7%	+132 +215 +125 +210	2 1	-0.87520-0.85698	-2.68370
05/02/2026 05:00 PM	Monaco Metz	42.9% 30.5%	26.6%	-290 +718 -310 +700	2 1	-0.33098-0.32893	-0.84695
05/02/2026 03:00 PM	Lorient Paris Saint-Germain	2.5% 90.6%	6.9%	+715 -275 +745 -295	2 2	-1.75684-1.79474	-2.67032

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.