France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for January 3, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Rennes
Nice 		40.0%
32.4%		27.6%
+228
+122

1.28
1.12		2.40
o2½+100
u2½-118

Games for Jan 2, 2025
Games for Jan 4, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lille
Montpellier		49.6%
24.1%		26.2%
-117
+358
-140
+410
2
2		-1.33575-1.35681-1.33811
Nantes
Paris Saint-Germain		3.1%
88.8%		8.1%
+1500
-575
+1350
-550
1
1		-2.14515-2.04462-2.51257
Strasbourg
Brest		39.9%
31.6%		28.5%
+260
+118
+250
+120
1
3		-0.80533-0.82650-1.15148
Saint-Etienne
Rennes		22.9%
51.5%		25.6%
+533
-175
+490
-175
0
5		-0.48391-0.50055-0.66388
Strasbourg
Nice		38.7%
33.7%		27.5%
+360
-126
+350
-130
1
2		-0.61194-0.61990-1.08646
Rennes
Lille		18.1%
58.5%		23.4%
+350
-108
+315
-110
0
1		-0.67828-0.69587-0.53575
Lyon
Reims		44.3%
26.7%		29.0%
+119
+225
+125
+195
1
1		-1.36207-1.37062-1.23867
Montpellier
Saint-Etienne		43.0%
29.1%		27.9%
+213
+140
+225
+130
0
1		-0.90530-0.88187-1.23371
Toulouse
Paris Saint-Germain		1.5%
93.1%		5.3%
+700
-257
+700
-290
0
3		-0.36341-0.34545-0.07120
Brest
Monaco		23.2%
53.4%		23.4%
+500
-168
+525
-190
2
3		-0.49279-0.47209-0.62798
Saint-Etienne
Lyon		12.9%
68.5%		18.6%
+740
-290
+740
-310
0
1		-0.32515-0.32893-0.37904
Toulouse
Rennes		6.5%
78.9%		14.6%
+223
+133
+230
+125
2
0		-1.20071-1.24320-2.72815
Brest
Montpellier		23.6%
50.2%		26.2%
+156
+193
+150
+215
1
3		-1.10936-1.16767-0.68953
Lille
Nice		60.3%
18.1%		21.5%
+229
+136
+210
+140
2
2		-1.22414-1.21362-1.53591
Paris Saint-Germain
Angers		87.6%
3.7%		8.7%
-365
+1000
-350
+900
4
2		-0.27736-0.30171-0.13243
Monaco
Strasbourg		34.9%
38.0%		27.1%
-101
+280
+100
+255
3
1		-0.71658-0.74381-1.05228
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.