France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 8 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
05/04/2025 01:00 PM	Angers Nantes	30.4% 41.5%	28.2%	+347 -105 +350 -115	1 0	-1.53123-1.55405	-1.19231
05/03/2025 07:05 PM	Monaco Saint-Etienne	45.7% 29.1%	25.2%	-218 +525 -220 +500	3 1	-0.40782-0.42372	-0.78285
05/03/2025 05:00 PM	Rennes Toulouse	73.8% 8.9%	17.3%	+253 +112 +240 +115	1 2	-0.78366-0.81744	-2.41811
05/03/2025 03:00 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Strasbourg	84.6% 4.8%	10.6%	+187 +137 +175 +135	1 2	-0.89722-0.90542	-3.03655
05/02/2025 06:45 PM	Reims Nice	40.5% 30.3%	29.2%	+685 -252 +715 -280	0 1	-0.36229-0.35593	-1.19485
04/27/2025 06:45 PM	Brest Marseille	18.5% 58.1%	23.4%	+735 -270 +700 -275	1 4	-0.34276-0.35782	-0.54347
04/27/2025 03:15 PM	Toulouse Nantes	8.3% 75.0%	16.7%	+170 +187 +165 +185	0 0	-1.19399-1.18097	-1.79234
04/27/2025 03:15 PM	Reims Montpellier	31.4% 36.1%	32.5%	-115 +328 -120 +320	0 0	-1.37595-1.37074	-1.12507
04/27/2025 01:00 PM	Lille Angers	59.5% 18.1%	22.4%	-205 +640 -230 +675	2 0	-0.42636-0.41048	-0.51936
04/26/2025 07:05 PM	Rennes Lyon	19.8% 56.4%	23.8%	+410 -157 +365 -150	1 4	-0.52162-0.55995	-0.57286
04/26/2025 03:00 PM	Saint-Etienne Strasbourg	24.0% 50.3%	25.7%	+490 -185 +475 -190	1 3	-0.45872-0.46604	-0.68709
04/25/2025 06:45 PM	Nice Paris Saint-Germain	2.8% 90.4%	6.8%	+455 -185 +375 -160	3 1	-1.74870-1.60754	-3.56137
04/22/2025 06:45 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Nantes	86.3% 4.1%	9.7%	-258 +640 -275 +625	1 1	-1.75365-1.76393	-2.33645
04/20/2025 06:45 PM	Lyon Saint-Etienne	60.6% 17.7%	21.7%	-162 +415 -165 +385	1 2	-1.67312-1.62872	-1.72912
04/20/2025 03:15 PM	Toulouse Reims	6.4% 77.2%	16.4%	+112 +262 +110 +255	0 1	-1.31569-1.31763	-0.25886
04/20/2025 03:15 PM	Angers Nice	32.6% 40.8%	26.6%	+785 -262 +775 -280	1 2	-0.35748-0.35525	-0.89681

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.