France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 5, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Angers
Paris Saint-Germain 		2.9%
89.8%		7.2%
+1600
-690
+1450
-700
0.56
3.49		4.05
o4+101
u4-121
o4+100
u4-120
Monaco
Brest 		44.1%
30.2%		25.7%
-110
+304
-110
+285
1.48
1.18		2.66
o3+104
u3-120
o3+105
u3-125
Lille
Lyon 		34.6%
37.6%		27.8%
+209
+131
+205
+125
1.15
1.22		2.37
o2¾-108
u2¾-108
o2½-135
u2½+115
Games for Apr 4, 2025
Games for Apr 6, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Montpellier
Lille		18.3%
58.3%		23.5%
+700
-240
+700
-260
0
1		-0.37872-0.37545-0.53998
Paris Saint-Germain
Rennes		83.7%
5.1%		11.2%
-144
+390
-150
+385
4
1		-0.56196-0.55970-0.17797
Monaco
Toulouse		77.5%
8.2%		14.3%
+123
+227
+120
+220
1
1		-1.31245-1.30420-1.94275
Nantes
Marseille		20.9%
53.5%		25.5%
+810
-290
+725
-290
0
2		-0.32781-0.34670-0.62459
Rennes
Montpellier		31.2%
39.1%		29.7%
+100
+295
+100
+275
4
0		-0.72741-0.74421-1.16533
Toulouse
Angers		8.7%
75.0%		16.2%
+110
+300
+115
+300
4
0		-0.77074-0.79270-2.43657
Brest
Lyon		13.6%
67.0%		19.3%
+380
-136
+380
-145
1
2		-0.57928-0.57346-0.39975
Lille
Paris Saint-Germain		7.3%
79.4%		13.3%
+840
-307
+735
-280
1
4		-0.31745-0.35491-0.23043
Nice
Saint-Etienne		35.5%
37.4%		27.1%
-160
+437
-160
+400
3
1		-0.52015-0.53495-1.03665
Reims
Monaco		32.2%
39.0%		28.8%
+765
-280
+850
-320
0
3		-0.33593-0.32135-0.94253
Paris Saint-Germain
Lyon		76.2%
9.1%		14.8%
-193
+495
-180
+475
3
2		-0.45199-0.46876-0.27244
Montpellier
Nice		40.3%
32.1%		27.5%
+800
-290
+740
-295
0
2		-0.32899-0.34172-1.13494
Brest
Strasbourg		24.9%
48.7%		26.4%
+255
+118
+260
+110
0
0		-1.25773-1.27072-1.33237
Angers
Saint-Etienne		35.0%
37.0%		28.0%
+190
+154
+190
+150
3
3		-1.25590-1.24067-1.27140
Monaco
Lille		18.8%
59.7%		21.4%
+198
+142
+210
+125
1
2		-0.91001-0.85849-0.51507
Reims
Rennes		31.7%
35.8%		32.5%
+235
+125
+240
+125
0
1		-0.84567-0.84735-1.02680
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.98464 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.97371 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.08243
0.90221
0.89128

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.