France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Saint-Etienne
Nice 		29.9%
44.1%		26.0%
+488
-165
+470
-170
1.15
1.45		2.60
o2½-115
u2½-104
o2½-125
u2½+105
Games for Sep 19, 2024
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Angers
Lille		13.3%
67.4%		19.3%
+920
-280
+860
-300
0
2		-0.33966-0.33670-0.39421
Monaco
Lyon		20.7%
57.4%		21.9%
+148
+175
+145
+170
2
0		-0.93451-0.94727-1.57566
Montpellier
Paris Saint-Germain		3.9%
86.8%		9.4%
+1165
-450
+1025
-480
0
6		-0.23523-0.24689-0.14193
Lyon
Rennes		47.6%
25.9%		26.5%
+215
+133
+210
+130
0
3		-0.87381-0.88312-1.34938
Nantes
Toulouse		69.0%
11.3%		19.6%
+290
+110
+290
+105
0
0		-1.25016-1.22926-1.62791
Strasbourg
Montpellier		30.2%
40.8%		29.0%
+262
+113
+260
+110
1
1		-1.29397-1.27072-1.23922
Saint-Etienne
Monaco		22.2%
55.0%		22.8%
+715
-280
+750
-300
0
1		-0.34279-0.33596-0.59786
Lille
Reims		46.4%
24.7%		28.9%
+158
+191
+155
+180
2
0		-0.98147-0.98709-0.76746
Marseille
Brest		49.4%
24.4%		26.2%
+140
+221
+130
+220
5
1		-0.90622-0.88201-0.70548
Nice
Lille		13.2%
68.3%		18.5%
+550
-195
+545
-200
2
2		-1.57479-1.52047-1.68973
Strasbourg
Lyon		18.8%
58.1%		23.0%
+775
-290
+650
-275
1
2		-0.32468-0.36071-0.54230
Nantes
Monaco		26.1%
48.8%		25.2%
+430
-180
+535
-200
0
4		-0.47289-0.42179-0.71808
Rennes
Reims		29.2%
38.9%		31.9%
+135
+210
+130
+200
1
2		-1.14961-1.14721-0.94323
Paris Saint-Germain
Metz		87.0%
3.7%		9.3%
-130
+355
-140
+395
2
0		-0.60493-0.56784-0.13910
Brest
Toulouse		66.9%
12.9%		20.1%
+133
+200
+125
+245
3
0		-0.87465-0.82679-0.40148
Marseille
Reims		35.3%
32.4%		32.3%
-118
+313
-105
+290
0
1		-1.45299-1.38894-1.12726
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.