France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 11 hr ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
04/05/2026 03:15 PM	Nantes Metz	33.7% 35.8%	30.5%	+153 +193 +155 +187	0 0	-1.24129-1.22581	-1.18905
04/05/2026 01:00 PM	Lyon Angers	57.3% 19.8%	22.9%	-155 +475 -170 +485	0 0	-1.42695-1.44511	-1.47543
04/04/2026 05:00 PM	Rennes Brest	41.1% 30.3%	28.5%	+132 +245 +130 +225	4 3	-0.85226-0.86474	-0.88887
04/04/2026 03:00 PM	Nice Strasbourg	26.7% 47.7%	25.6%	+300 -105 +300 -110	1 3	-0.70457-0.68975	-0.73946
04/03/2026 06:45 PM	Toulouse Paris Saint-Germain	1.5% 93.1%	5.3%	+940 -345 +906 -350	1 3	-0.28928-0.29422	-0.07120
03/22/2026 07:45 PM	Strasbourg Nantes	35.8% 34.4%	29.8%	+113 +260 +100 +272	3 2	-0.79096-0.74242	-1.02591
03/22/2026 04:15 PM	Metz Rennes	24.1% 48.3%	27.5%	+885 -325 +850 -315	0 0	-1.81708-1.74985	-1.29033
03/22/2026 04:15 PM	Lille Marseille	42.2% 30.0%	27.8%	+310 -108 +305 -110	2 1	-1.44600-1.44244	-0.86308
03/22/2026 02:00 PM	Monaco Lyon	20.7% 57.4%	21.9%	+164 +167 +151 +175	2 1	-1.00441-0.96082	-1.57566
03/21/2026 08:00 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Nice	88.2% 3.7%	8.1%	-228 +610 -235 +555	4 0	-0.39902-0.40357	-0.12528
03/21/2026 04:00 PM	Lorient Toulouse	61.8% 15.4%	22.8%	+390 -118 +400 -125	0 1	-0.64844-0.63626	-1.87204
03/15/2026 07:45 PM	Lille Rennes	49.9% 23.9%	26.2%	+240 +126 +235 +125	2 1	-1.25913-1.24289	-0.69497
03/15/2026 04:15 PM	Toulouse Metz	9.3% 72.7%	18.0%	-102 +308 +102 +300	4 3	-0.71764-0.73741	-2.37494
03/14/2026 08:05 PM	Brest Monaco	23.2% 53.4%	23.4%	+445 -160 +415 -160	0 2	-0.52072-0.53479	-0.62798
03/14/2026 06:00 PM	Nice Angers	32.7% 40.7%	26.6%	+139 +240 +135 +235	2 0	-0.89794-0.89703	-1.11764
03/08/2026 04:15 PM	Lorient Lille	10.5% 71.6%	17.9%	+560 -186 +540 -185	1 1	-1.49246-1.47762	-1.71998

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	3	1-1-1 (0.500)	0	-1.03110
Sportsbooks	3	1-1-1 (0.500)	0	-1.07283
DRatings	3	2-0-1 (0.833)	0	-1.02510	0.00601 0.04773

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.