France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for December 13, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Brest
Rennes 		23.8%
49.9%		26.3%
+308
-112
+310
-120
0.93
1.48		2.41
o2¾-102
u2¾-115
o2½-125
u2½+115
Paris Saint-Germain
Metz 		87.0%
3.7%		9.3%
-350
+875
-360
+825
3.09
0.53		3.62
o3½-111
u3½-108
o3½+100
u3½-105
Games for Dec 12, 2025
Games for Dec 14, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lille
Nice		60.3%
18.1%		21.5%
-112
+294
-110
+275
0
2		-1.40646-1.37074-1.70722
Strasbourg
Lyon		18.8%
58.1%		23.0%
+290
-105
+300
-105
1
2		-0.70370-0.69750-0.54230
Lorient
Angers		26.7%
46.3%		26.9%
+186
+182
+180
+180
0
2		-1.07046-1.06088-0.76945
Nice
Rennes		25.5%
49.0%		25.5%
+268
+107
+240
+110
2
1		-1.33724-1.27075-1.36826
Metz
Lille		12.8%
67.1%		20.1%
+1150
-415
+1125
-380
1
6		-0.25058-0.25613-0.39925
Toulouse
Monaco		5.9%
82.3%		11.8%
+226
+122
+280
+115
0
1		-0.83188-0.77150-0.19539
Paris Saint-Germain
Brest		87.9%
3.6%		8.5%
-297
+805
-310
+815
3
0		-0.32519-0.32414-0.12886
Lille
Nantes		56.7%
19.3%		24.0%
-154
+467
-140
+400
2
0		-0.53558-0.58780-0.56789
Metz
Toulouse		66.2%
12.7%		21.0%
+540
-185
+525
-190
0
4		-0.46679-0.46949-2.06357
Brest
Lorient		35.6%
34.8%		29.6%
+169
+179
+170
+175
3
3		-1.22227-1.22601-1.21702
Monaco
Angers		42.3%
31.9%		25.8%
-159
+465
-150
+405
1
1		-1.44333-1.43322-1.35530
Lyon
Nice		58.0%
19.9%		22.0%
+220
+130
+216
+130
2
3		-0.86698-0.86152-1.61440
Strasbourg
Paris Saint-Germain		3.6%
87.5%		8.8%
+715
-255
+680
-260
3
3		-1.67360-1.67948-2.42690
Paris Saint-Germain
Lille		73.8%
10.1%		16.1%
+107
+260
+110
+250
1
1		-1.32901-1.28884-1.82728
Angers
Strasbourg		26.4%
47.1%		26.5%
+410
-136
+400
-130
0
5		-0.58607-0.60194-0.75373
Nice
Monaco		24.8%
52.2%		23.0%
+287
-105
+279
+100
2
2		-1.36230-1.34186-1.47124
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.79624 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.80406 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.97501
-0.17877
-0.17095

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.