France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 5, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Angers
Paris Saint-Germain 		2.9%
89.8%		7.2%
+1600
-690
+1450
-700
0.56
3.49		4.05
o4+101
u4-121
o4+100
u4-120
Monaco
Brest 		44.1%
30.2%		25.7%
-110
+304
-110
+285
1.48
1.18		2.66
o3+104
u3-118
o3+105
u3-125
Lille
Lyon 		34.6%
37.6%		27.8%
+209
+131
+205
+125
1.15
1.22		2.37
o2¾-108
u2¾-108
o2½-135
u2½+115
Games for Apr 4, 2025
Games for Apr 6, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lille
Rennes		49.9%
23.9%		26.2%
+152
+210
+150
+200
2
0		-0.95852-0.96582-0.69497
Angers
Reims		23.6%
48.2%		28.2%
+345
-108
+320
-110
1
0		-1.52698-1.48554-1.44447
Lyon
Montpellier		47.3%
26.2%		26.5%
-173
+445
-180
+435
4
1		-0.48569-0.49253-0.74851
Paris Saint-Germain
Toulouse		92.7%
1.7%		5.6%
-188
+520
-200
+510
1
0		-0.46121-0.45462-0.07535
Nantes
Monaco		26.1%
48.8%		25.2%
+530
-195
+525
-200
1
7		-0.44597-0.45319-0.71808
Saint-Etienne
Marseille		17.7%
59.6%		22.7%
+1100
-430
+1050
-460
1
5		-0.24397-0.24669-0.51693
Marseille
Angers		47.6%
25.9%		26.5%
-162
+462
-180
+500
2
0		-0.51453-0.49109-0.74227
Montpellier
Strasbourg		33.0%
37.4%		29.6%
+410
-145
+355
-145
0
2		-0.55584-0.59034-0.98283
Reims
Lyon		20.8%
52.8%		26.5%
+510
-187
+500
-200
0
4		-0.45624-0.45495-0.63881
Rennes
Saint-Etienne		42.7%
29.4%		28.0%
+130
+218
+130
+235
2
0		-0.86185-0.85996-0.85200
Monaco
Paris Saint-Germain		3.7%
88.3%		8.0%
+485
-215
+550
-240
1
4		-0.41726-0.39730-0.12474
Brest
Nantes		28.8%
43.2%		27.9%
+208
+150
+200
+145
2
0		-1.15862-1.14662-1.24396
Lyon
Marseille		39.8%
32.3%		27.9%
+260
+105
+265
+100
2
3		-0.74959-0.74360-1.13097
Strasbourg
Rennes		30.5%
40.5%		29.0%
+340
-105
+280
+105
0
1		-0.69794-0.76613-0.90365
Nantes
Reims		24.6%
45.3%		30.0%
+248
+127
+245
+120
2
1		-1.27748-1.28913-1.40104
Nice
Toulouse		69.8%
11.9%		18.2%
+144
+213
+150
+190
1
1		-1.23643-1.22984-1.70210
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.98464 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.97371 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.08243
0.90221
0.89128

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.