France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Saint-Etienne
Nice 		29.9%
44.1%		26.0%
+504
-170
+470
-170
1.15
1.45		2.60
o2½-115
u2½-104
o2½-125
u2½+105
Games for Sep 19, 2024
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Paris Saint-Germain
Nice		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
+228
+114
+210
+115
2
1		-1.22254-1.18101-0.12528
Monaco
Montpellier		33.3%
39.5%		27.2%
-135
+320
-135
+300
2
0		-0.58383-0.60475-1.10027
Metz
Strasbourg		25.2%
47.2%		27.5%
+245
+114
+225
+115
1
2		-0.79514-0.81482-0.75046
Toulouse
Paris Saint-Germain		1.5%
93.1%		5.3%
+650
-260
+610
-275
3
1		-2.05004-2.00999-4.17404
Lille
Nantes		56.7%
19.3%		24.0%
-135
+405
-125
+340
2
1		-0.58603-0.63609-0.56789
Lorient
Marseille		15.7%
61.7%		22.6%
+550
-203
+530
-215
1
3		-0.43430-0.43034-0.48347
Reims
Brest		41.3%
28.3%		30.4%
+460
-162
+435
-160
1
1		-1.46946-1.43729-1.18951
Lyon
Lille		30.2%
43.0%		26.8%
+247
+106
+240
+105
4
3		-1.27895-1.27465-1.19759
Nantes
Brest		34.8%
35.7%		29.6%
+450
-142
+425
-145
0
0		-1.35642-1.35957-1.21882
Rennes
Metz		39.8%
30.5%		29.7%
-104
+295
-105
+285
3
2		-0.70857-0.71756-0.92153
Montpellier
Toulouse		74.0%
8.8%		17.2%
+253
+103
+250
+100
2
1		-1.29310-1.30383-0.30167
Monaco
Lyon		20.7%
57.4%		21.9%
+185
+140
+175
+130
2
3		-0.89226-0.88020-0.55546
Brest
Rennes		23.8%
49.9%		26.3%
+260
+120
+235
+125
5
4		-1.31130-1.25836-1.43569
Toulouse
Lorient		11.3%
69.0%		19.7%
+200
+150
+170
+160
2
1		-1.11669-1.04120-2.17993
Nice
Strasbourg		26.7%
47.7%		25.6%
+125
+255
+125
+235
3
1		-0.83529-0.86034-1.32231
Lille
Metz		59.4%
17.4%		23.2%
-155
+480
-160
+465
2
1		-0.52523-0.53631-0.52121
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.