France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for January 3, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Rennes
Nice 		40.0%
32.4%		27.6%
+228
+122

1.28
1.12		2.40
o2½+100
u2½-118

Games for Jan 2, 2025
Games for Jan 4, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Marseille
Nantes		44.9%
27.1%		28.0%
+115
+255
+105
+280
2
1		-0.79746-0.76613-0.80162
Reims
Toulouse		72.2%
8.6%		19.2%
+330
-110
+265
+100
0
1		-0.68021-0.74360-2.45248
Strasbourg
Saint-Etienne		41.4%
30.6%		27.9%
+110
+255
+105
+260
0
2		-1.29120-1.32336-1.18277
Nice
Brest		34.2%
38.6%		27.1%
+163
+200
+165
+195
1
0		-0.99271-1.02304-1.07254
Lyon
Lille		30.2%
43.0%		26.8%
+210
+125
+210
+120
1
1		-1.36473-1.34458-1.31822
Angers
Monaco		24.7%
51.6%		23.7%
+1075
-400
+1100
-475
1
0		-2.49241-2.53591-1.39918
Paris Saint-Germain
Marseille		80.3%
6.7%		13.0%
-120
+320
-125
+310
3
0		-0.64097-0.63605-0.21957
Monaco
Nice		42.8%
32.2%		25.0%
-104
+308
+105
+260
1
2		-1.42745-1.33094-1.13336
Toulouse
Montpellier		6.5%
79.0%		14.5%
+116
+235
+110
+235
3
0		-0.79786-0.78946-2.73908
Nantes
Strasbourg		27.6%
44.3%		28.0%
+310
-104
+310
-110
1
3		-0.70473-0.69485-0.81340
Brest
Reims		22.2%
49.7%		28.1%
+360
-115
+340
-105
2
1		-1.55566-1.51054-1.50283
Saint-Etienne
Angers		29.6%
43.4%		26.9%
+235
+129
+230
+125
2
4		-0.84924-0.86022-0.83361
Marseille
Montpellier		37.9%
32.4%		29.6%
-140
+395
-135
+335
5
0		-0.56219-0.60431-0.96914
Angers
Toulouse		68.7%
12.1%		19.2%
+680
-192
+650
-205
1
1		-1.49455-1.45917-1.65078
Nice
Nantes		30.7%
42.1%		27.2%
+170
+194
+170
+200
1
1		-1.19670-1.14624-1.30243
Strasbourg
Paris Saint-Germain		3.6%
87.5%		8.8%
+930
-350
+850
-365
2
4		-0.28559-0.29113-0.13323
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.