France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Saint-Etienne
Nice 		29.9%
44.1%		26.0%
+525
-171
+470
-170
1.15
1.45		2.60
o2½-115
u2½-102
o2½-120
u2½+100
Games for Sep 19, 2024
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nantes
Montpellier		26.2%
45.8%		28.0%
+280
+106
+275
+100
1
1		-1.31707-1.31420-1.27414
Nice
Marseille		19.8%
57.2%		22.9%
+261
+125
+255
+125
2
2		-1.21811-1.21190-1.47190
Lille
Monaco		50.7%
25.2%		24.1%
+198
+135
+185
+140
0
1		-0.88182-0.92352-1.37848
Paris Saint-Germain
Lorient		88.7%
3.1%		8.1%
-240
+625
-250
+605
4
1		-0.38273-0.38202-0.11991
Lyon
Paris Saint-Germain		6.5%
81.3%		12.2%
+415
-168
+425
-175
1
4		-0.50248-0.49989-0.20684
Marseille
Toulouse		78.7%
6.7%		14.6%
+173
+173
+165
+175
2
2		-1.23960-1.22622-1.92435
Monaco
Brest		44.1%
30.2%		25.7%
+170
+164
+170
+155
2
0		-1.02753-1.04035-0.81821
Montpellier
Reims		29.4%
38.7%		31.8%
+220
+124
+230
+110
2
1		-1.18843-1.24223-1.22254
Strasbourg
Lille		17.2%
60.2%		22.5%
+520
-164
+475
-165
0
1		-0.50215-0.52540-0.50667
Rennes
Nantes		37.0%
33.0%		30.0%
+147
+215
+145
+200
3
0		-0.93379-0.94410-0.99441
Lorient
Nice		26.9%
47.1%		26.0%
+515
-173
+510
-185
0
3		-0.48464-0.48203-0.75222
Brest
Lyon		13.6%
67.0%		19.3%
+295
+105
+265
+110
3
4		-0.75232-0.79376-0.39975
Toulouse
Rennes		6.5%
78.9%		14.6%
+362
-120
+330
-120
2
1		-1.55514-1.50928-2.72815
Reims
Strasbourg		32.9%
34.8%		32.3%
+202
+147
+195
+140
1
3		-0.92568-0.92402-1.05581
Rennes
Monaco		31.5%
41.8%		26.7%
+320
-125
+305
-125
0
1		-0.61904-0.63597-0.87156
Strasbourg
Toulouse		73.2%
9.3%		17.4%
+260
+115
+250
+110
0
0		-1.28096-1.28884-1.74703
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.