France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 5, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Angers
Paris Saint-Germain 		2.9%
89.8%		7.2%
+1700
-740
+1450
-700
0.56
3.49		4.05
o4-105
u4-115
o4+100
u4-120
Monaco
Brest 		44.1%
30.2%		25.7%
-115
+320
-110
+285
1.48
1.18		2.66
o3-104
u3-110
o3+105
u3-125
Lille
Lyon 		34.6%
37.6%		27.8%
+209
+131
+205
+125
1.15
1.22		2.37
o2¾-108
u2¾-110
o2½-135
u2½+115
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Games for Apr 6, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Saint-Etienne
Lille		11.8%
70.0%		18.2%
+625
-195
+650
-230
1
4		-0.43252-0.40988-0.35685
Paris Saint-Germain
Brest		87.9%
3.6%		8.5%
-283
+765
-310
+775
5
2		-0.33669-0.32738-0.12886
Marseille
Nice		48.3%
26.1%		25.6%
+165
+172
+165
+165
0
2		-1.03572-1.02223-1.34224
Lyon
Nantes		54.5%
21.1%		24.4%
-112
+320
-120
+320
1
1		-1.35429-1.37074-1.41104
Montpellier
Toulouse		74.0%
8.8%		17.2%
+433
-147
+410
-145
2
1		-1.70556-1.67906-0.30167
Reims
Paris Saint-Germain		4.2%
84.5%		11.2%
+1150
-510
+1225
-575
1
1		-2.15218-2.15762-2.18774
Lille
Strasbourg		51.7%
22.9%		25.4%
+145
+220
+135
+210
1
2		-1.18656-1.17697-1.47451
Rennes
Monaco		31.5%
41.8%		26.7%
+435
-142
+400
-150
2
3		-0.56600-0.56263-0.87156
Strasbourg
Marseille		24.6%
48.6%		26.8%
+460
-168
+440
-175
1
1		-1.53137-1.52033-1.31531
Nantes
Saint-Etienne		36.2%
34.7%		29.1%
+147
+211
+155
+195
1
1		-1.22295-1.18375-1.23553
Toulouse
Lyon		3.7%
86.9%		9.4%
+335
-122
+295
-115
0
0		-1.40580-1.38494-2.36000
Brest
Rennes		23.8%
49.9%		26.3%
+320
+104
+330
-105
2
1		-1.46413-1.50973-1.43569
Nice
Lille		13.2%
68.3%		18.5%
+315
-102
+250
+125
1
2		-0.71052-0.83492-0.38087
Monaco
Montpellier		33.3%
39.5%		27.2%
-160
+435
-180
+435
1
2		-1.70128-1.72777-0.92763
Saint-Etienne
Paris Saint-Germain		2.7%
90.5%		6.8%
+2100
-850
+2000
-975
1
2		-0.14604-0.14628-0.10019
Angers
Montpellier		25.0%
48.6%		26.4%
+282
+112
+275
+110
3
1		-1.35926-1.37105-1.38657
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.98464 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.97371 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.08243
0.90221
0.89128

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.