France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 23 hr ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
10/17/2025 06:45 PM	Strasbourg Paris Saint-Germain	3.6% 87.5%	8.8%	+715 -255 +680 -260	3 3	-1.67360-1.67948	-2.42690
10/05/2025 06:45 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Lille	73.8% 10.1%	16.1%	+107 +260 +110 +250	1 1	-1.32901-1.28884	-1.82728
10/05/2025 03:15 PM	Angers Strasbourg	26.4% 47.1%	26.5%	+410 -136 +400 -130	0 5	-0.58607-0.60194	-0.75373
10/05/2025 03:15 PM	Nice Monaco	24.8% 52.2%	23.0%	+287 -105 +279 +100	2 2	-1.36230-1.34186	-1.47124
10/05/2025 01:00 PM	Toulouse Lyon	3.7% 86.9%	9.4%	+295 +102 +292 +105	2 1	-1.40789-1.39433	-3.29954
10/04/2025 05:00 PM	Nantes Brest	34.8% 35.7%	29.6%	+305 -104 +300 -105	0 0	-1.31078-1.30372	-1.21882
10/04/2025 03:00 PM	Marseille Metz	47.7% 24.7%	27.5%	-180 +515 -185 +500	3 0	-0.47554-0.47331	-0.73965
09/28/2025 03:15 PM	Brest Angers	30.7% 41.9%	27.4%	+139 +234 +140 +222	2 0	-0.90594-0.92407	-1.18234
09/28/2025 03:15 PM	Lyon Lille	30.2% 43.0%	26.8%	+212 +135 +206 +135	1 0	-1.17147-1.16136	-1.19759
09/27/2025 05:00 PM	Nantes Toulouse	69.0% 11.3%	19.6%	+447 -138 +395 -135	2 2	-1.33272-1.34396	-1.62791
09/27/2025 03:00 PM	Monaco Lorient	48.7% 26.1%	25.2%	-108 +284 -115 +310	1 3	-1.38087-1.44558	-1.34243
09/26/2025 06:45 PM	Marseille Strasbourg	39.8% 31.2%	29.0%	+119 +237 +120 +225	2 1	-0.81606-0.83144	-0.92012
09/22/2025 06:00 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Marseille	80.3% 6.7%	13.0%	-130 +322	0 1	-1.49188	-2.70680
09/21/2025 03:15 PM	Metz Monaco	23.6% 52.0%	24.4%	+795 -315 +760 -312	2 5	-0.30982-0.32018	-0.65433
09/20/2025 05:00 PM	Nice Brest	34.2% 38.6%	27.1%	+132 +205 +135 +210	1 4	-1.14967-1.15325	-0.95099
09/20/2025 03:00 PM	Rennes Nantes	37.0% 33.0%	30.0%	+103 +300 +100 +290	2 2	-1.27450-1.28359	-1.20554

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	1	1-0-0 (1.000)	0	-0.75726
Sportsbooks	1	1-0-0 (1.000)	0	-0.76336
DRatings	1	1-0-0 (1.000)	0	-0.74005	0.01721 0.02331

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.