France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Marseille
Nantes 		44.9%
27.1%		28.0%


1.32
0.95		2.27


Lorient
Paris Saint-Germain 		2.5%
90.6%		6.9%


0.50
3.46		3.96


Monaco
Metz 		42.9%
30.5%		26.6%


1.39
1.13		2.52


Games for May 1, 2026
Games for May 3, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Brest
Lille		12.4%
68.6%		19.0%
+460
-155
+450
-143
1
1		-1.42583-1.39691-1.66326
Strasbourg
Marseille		24.6%
48.6%		26.8%
+290
+100
+305
-115
2
2		-1.38326-1.41190-1.31531
Nantes
Monaco		26.1%
48.8%		25.2%
+580
-216
+650
-240
1
3		-0.41456-0.39475-0.71808
Paris Saint-Germain
Rennes		83.7%
5.1%		11.2%
-285
+710
-260
+735
1
3		-2.12678-2.13225-2.97966
Marseille
Paris Saint-Germain		4.9%
84.3%		10.8%
+550
-222
+500
-215
0
5		-0.40686-0.42808-0.17060
Toulouse
Angers		8.7%
75.0%		16.2%
+113
+290
+110
+300
0
1		-1.39679-1.42903-0.28704
Monaco
Nice		42.8%
32.2%		25.0%
+105
+243
+112
+225
0
0		-1.39995-1.36677-1.38482
Lyon
Nantes		54.5%
21.1%		24.4%
-137
+410
-135
+400
1
0		-0.58139-0.59462-0.60748
Lorient
Brest		28.0%
44.1%		27.9%
+235
+138
+230
+135
0
2		-0.90162-0.89465-0.81916
Lille
Metz		59.4%
17.4%		23.2%
-188
+545
-190
+517
0
0		-1.51608-1.51622-1.46063
Paris Saint-Germain
Strasbourg		84.6%
4.8%		10.6%
-160
+425
-159
+400
2
1		-0.52064-0.52826-0.16765
Brest
Nice		30.9%
42.5%		26.5%
+222
+130
+215
+130
2
2		-1.27504-1.26908-1.32667
Metz
Angers		30.9%
40.6%		28.5%
+261
+120
+260
+119
0
1		-0.82246-0.82513-0.90106
Lille
Lyon		34.6%
37.6%		27.8%
+225
+128
+235
+128
0
1		-0.85805-0.83894-0.97827
Rennes
Monaco		31.5%
41.8%		26.7%
+265
-105
+265
-106
0
4		-0.70457-0.70528-0.87156
Nantes
Lorient		38.8%
31.5%		29.7%
+345
-111
+325
-110
1
2		-0.67660-0.69443-1.15445
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.03110 
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.07283 
DRatings32-0-1 (0.833)0-1.02510
0.00601
0.04773

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.