France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for January 3, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Rennes
Nice 		40.0%
32.4%		27.6%
+229
+124

1.28
1.12		2.40
o2½+100
u2½-118

Games for Jan 2, 2025
Games for Jan 4, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Rennes
Brest		41.1%
30.3%		28.5%
+182
+170
+180
+170
1
1		-1.22156-1.18026-1.25439
Lille
Monaco		50.7%
25.2%		24.1%
+258
+109
+295
-110
0
0		-1.34592-1.34442-1.42225
Paris Saint-Germain
Nice		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-167
+470
-165
+440
1
1		-1.48250-1.46145-2.51294
Montpellier
Reims		29.4%
38.7%		31.8%
+425
-152
+385
-150
2
4		-0.53144-0.55970-0.94954
Nantes
Lyon		15.7%
62.9%		21.4%
+430
-146
+370
-135
0
2		-0.54747-0.60347-0.46416
Monaco
Rennes		33.6%
39.2%		27.2%
+154
+186
+145
+180
2
1		-0.96482-0.94585-1.09195
Toulouse
Lille		3.5%
87.2%		9.3%
+387
-120
+330
-120
1
2		-0.61999-0.64986-0.13683
Angers
Marseille		19.7%
56.4%		23.9%
+1000
-350
+1000
-400
1
1		-1.86085-1.88902-1.43255
Marseille
Strasbourg		39.8%
31.2%		29.0%
+118
+245
+115
+220
0
1		-1.24008-1.21345-1.16536
Saint-Etienne
Nantes		27.8%
44.8%		27.3%
+406
-130
+370
-130
2
2		-1.37038-1.35545-1.29751
Reims
Angers		39.8%
29.8%		30.4%
+120
+280
+115
+260
3
1		-0.80898-0.81482-0.92176
Lyon
Toulouse		83.8%
4.9%		11.3%
+200
+145
+190
+140
2
1		-1.12547-1.11480-0.17637
Montpellier
Monaco		31.8%
41.5%		26.7%
+900
-280
+1025
-385
1
2		-0.29367-0.25614-0.87856
Rennes
Paris Saint-Germain		3.8%
86.8%		9.3%
+615
-230
+675
-270
1
3		-0.39527-0.36489-0.14124
Marseille
Lyon		25.4%
48.7%		25.9%
+142
+187
+130
+190
3
2		-0.90827-0.88160-1.37078
Toulouse
Brest		9.4%
73.5%		17.1%
+195
+186
+190
+160
0
2		-1.02907-0.99196-0.30791
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.