France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 5, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Monaco
Brest 		44.1%
30.2%		25.7%
-123
+345
-125
+335
1.48
1.18		2.66
o3-110
u3-106
o3-115
u3-105
Lille
Lyon 		34.6%
37.6%		27.8%
+209
+131
+200
+130
1.15
1.22		2.37
o2¾-108
u2¾-110
o2½-135
u2½+115
Games for Apr 4, 2025
Games for Apr 6, 2025

Games In Progress

TimeTeamsOrig.
Win %		Orig.
Draw %		Closing
ML		Orig. Total
Goals		Closing
O/U		PeriodCurrent
Score
Angers
Paris Saint-Germain 		2.9%
89.8%		7.2%
+1900
-775
+1800
-825
4.05
o4+100
u4-120
o4+100
u4-120
1st H
24:00		0
0

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Strasbourg
Toulouse		73.2%
9.3%		17.4%
+300
-101
+340
-105
2
1		-1.41614-1.51467-0.31184
Marseille
Rennes		38.2%
32.1%		29.6%
+135
+225
+135
+220
2
1		-0.88826-0.90372-0.96215
Nice
Reims		23.8%
49.1%		27.0%
+156
+188
+160
+175
4
2		-0.97146-1.00550-1.43397
Lyon
Brest		59.0%
18.6%		22.4%
+111
+260
+110
+260
1
2		-1.30626-1.32791-1.68147
Monaco
Nantes		39.7%
33.2%		27.1%
+112
+300
-130
+380
2
2		-1.21838-1.33097-1.30424
Brest
Angers		30.7%
41.9%		27.4%
+136
+240
+120
+250
0
2		-1.24897-1.29960-0.87017
Montpellier
Lyon		20.0%
56.1%		23.9%
+710
-275
+700
-300
0
1		-0.33895-0.33543-0.57748
Nantes
Lille		14.3%
64.8%		20.9%
+638
-195
+575
-200
1
1		-1.48726-1.49584-1.56394
Reims
Saint-Etienne		42.8%
27.4%		29.8%
+116
+255
+110
+250
1
3		-1.29295-1.30324-1.29503
Rennes
Nice		40.0%
32.4%		27.6%
+215
+145
+215
+140
2
3		-0.92614-0.91644-1.12655
Paris Saint-Germain
Monaco		85.2%
5.0%		9.7%
-125
+331
-130
+325
4
2		-0.62168-0.61982-0.15970
Lyon
Paris Saint-Germain		6.5%
81.3%		12.2%
+700
-278
+690
-300
1
3		-0.34253-0.33694-0.20684
Angers
Rennes		25.2%
48.3%		26.5%
+530
-162
+500
-170
0
2		-0.50745-0.51089-0.72853
Nantes
Brest		34.8%
35.7%		29.6%
+260
+130
+225
+145
1
4		-0.85767-0.94410-1.03092
Nice
Montpellier		25.2%
49.3%		25.5%
+140
+187
+130
+200
2
2		-1.36285-1.30523-1.36743
Monaco
Reims		31.4%
39.8%		28.8%
+126
+240
+100
+265
0
0		-1.27482-1.33139-1.24618
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.98464 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.97371 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.08243
0.90221
0.89128

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.