France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Saint-Etienne
Nice 		29.9%
44.1%		26.0%
+525
-171
+470
-170
1.15
1.45		2.60
o2½-112
u2½-102
o2½-120
u2½+100
Games for Sep 19, 2024
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lorient
Montpellier		20.2%
54.3%		25.5%
+325
-120
+315
-125
0
2		-0.63643-0.63936-0.61061
Le Havre
Lens		29.1%
41.9%		28.9%
+645
-200
+600
-205
1
1		-1.50937-1.49598-1.24022
Marseille
Lille		23.3%
51.1%		25.6%
+335
-108
+310
-105
1
3		-0.68195-0.70613-0.67231
Rennes
Strasbourg		32.7%
37.7%		29.6%
+133
+218
+130
+215
0
2		-1.19227-1.19690-0.97578
Montpellier
Le Havre		55.7%
19.2%		25.1%
+170
+185
+175
+175
2
0		-1.01724-1.05535-0.58598
Reims
Lyon		20.8%
52.8%		26.5%
+267
+105
+250
+105
1
1		-1.34438-1.33094-1.32984
Lens
Lille		8.0%
76.7%		15.3%
+263
+117
+265
+105
1
2		-0.80896-0.76819-0.26513
Marseille
Rennes		38.2%
32.1%		29.6%
+168
+168
+160
+170
0
2		-1.00959-1.04120-1.13485
Lorient
Monaco		19.7%
57.7%		22.6%
+660
-265
+650
-275
2
2		-1.76568-1.73693-1.48749
Nice
Lens		45.7%
28.2%		26.1%
+336
-105
+280
+105
3
1		-1.49544-1.38326-0.78309
Strasbourg
Nantes		35.8%
34.4%		29.8%
+305
+105
+275
+110
3
1		-1.42716-1.37105-1.02591
Lyon
Toulouse		83.8%
4.9%		11.3%
+170
+182
+155
+185
3
2		-1.01647-0.98556-0.17637
Nantes
Marseille		20.9%
53.5%		25.5%
+625
-200
+610
-215
0
2		-0.43683-0.43135-0.62459
Rennes
Lille		18.1%
58.5%		23.4%
+350
-110
+315
-105
2
2		-1.28605-1.25931-1.45235
Monaco
Strasbourg		34.9%
38.0%		27.1%
+105
+257
+100
+250
1
0		-0.74511-0.74421-1.05228
Lens
Lyon		8.8%
75.5%		15.7%
+185
+160
+180
+160
3
0		-1.07649-1.07790-2.43418
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.