France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Marseille
Nantes 		44.9%
27.1%		28.0%


1.32
0.95		2.27


Lorient
Paris Saint-Germain 		2.5%
90.6%		6.9%


0.50
3.46		3.96


Monaco
Metz 		42.9%
30.5%		26.6%


1.39
1.13		2.52


Games for May 1, 2026
Games for May 3, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Strasbourg
Lille		17.2%
60.2%		22.5%
+191
+155
+185
+156
4
1		-1.10190-1.07819-1.76096
Toulouse
Brest		9.4%
73.5%		17.1%
+165
+212
+165
+205
2
0		-1.00854-1.00712-2.36361
Lyon
Metz		57.3%
19.0%		23.6%
-143
+435
-145
+410
5
2		-0.56475-0.57107-0.55683
Nice
Nantes		30.7%
42.1%		27.2%
+165
+177
+143
+190
4
1		-1.00906-0.93308-1.17944
Lorient
Rennes		20.4%
54.0%		25.5%
+375
-123
+360
-125
2
0		-1.59214-1.55822-1.58763
Brest
Lyon		13.6%
67.0%		19.3%
+415
-143
+405
-145
1
2		-0.56539-0.56664-0.39975
Metz
Strasbourg		25.2%
47.2%		27.5%
+660
-235
+650
-235
1
2		-0.38904-0.39680-0.75046
Marseille
Angers		47.6%
25.9%		26.5%
-170
+487
-175
+470
5
2		-0.49466-0.50069-0.74227
Nice
Toulouse		69.8%
11.9%		18.2%
+302
-104
+275
+100
1
5		-0.70575-0.74421-2.12603
Lille
Paris Saint-Germain		7.3%
79.4%		13.3%
+890
-344
+870
-350
0
3		-0.28960-0.29514-0.23043
Lorient
Monaco		19.7%
57.7%		22.6%
+395
-150
+400
-160
3
1		-1.63081-1.65679-1.62268
Metz
Lorient		35.7%
33.8%		30.5%
+331
-114
+340
-120
1
1		-1.34274-1.36039-1.18708
Nantes
Marseille		20.9%
53.5%		25.5%
+1050
-385
+1050
-427
2
0		-2.47634-2.48663-1.56356
Rennes
Lille		18.1%
58.5%		23.4%
+380
-138
+400
-133
2
0		-1.60311-1.63005-1.71130
Strasbourg
Nice		38.7%
33.7%		27.5%
+126
+235
+120
+220
1
1		-1.26876-1.31453-1.29084
Lyon
Monaco		48.1%
27.4%		24.5%
+245
+110
+240
+110
3
1		-1.27264-1.26355-0.73141
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.03110 
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.07283 
DRatings32-0-1 (0.833)0-1.02510
0.00601
0.04773

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.