France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Saint-Etienne
Nice 		29.9%
44.1%		26.0%
+550
-178
+470
-170
1.15
1.45		2.60
o2½-112
u2½-108
o2½-120
u2½+100
Games for Sep 19, 2024
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lorient
Rennes		20.4%
54.0%		25.5%
+625
-205
+625
-225
2
1		-2.00813-2.03218-1.58763
Strasbourg
Montpellier		30.2%
40.8%		29.0%
+290
-103
+275
-105
2
2		-1.35178-1.34623-1.23922
Le Havre
Brest		20.7%
54.3%		25.1%
+580
-165
+550
-170
0
1		-0.50281-0.51498-0.61136
Nice
Toulouse		69.8%
11.9%		18.2%
+135
+240
+130
+235
1
2		-1.25075-1.25846-2.12603
Lille
Reims		46.4%
24.7%		28.9%
+150
+193
+150
+185
1
0		-0.94294-0.96451-0.76746
Montpellier
Marseille		25.8%
46.5%		27.6%
+400
-140

1
4		-0.57180-0.76507
Lille
Toulouse		84.4%
4.5%		11.1%
+107
+280

1
3		-1.35876-3.09909
Reims
Le Havre		54.7%
18.2%		27.1%
+125
+247

2
1		-0.83732-0.60402
Monaco
Lens		56.3%
20.8%		22.9%


3
2		-0.57462
Brest
Strasbourg		24.9%
48.7%		26.4%
+190
+172
+180
+170
3
0		-1.08376-1.07852-1.38990
Nantes
Lorient		38.8%
31.5%		29.7%
+160
+185
+170
+180
1
0		-1.00239-1.04214-0.94665
Marseille
Brest		49.4%
24.4%		26.2%
+210
+148
+210
+140
0
1		-0.93227-0.92591-1.40862
Lens
Reims		15.2%
60.2%		24.6%
+252
+122
+235
+125
1
1		-1.26245-1.22806-1.40259
Toulouse
Monaco		5.9%
82.3%		11.8%
+465
-165
+495
-190
2
1		-1.76335-1.83264-2.82751
Lorient
Strasbourg		21.4%
52.9%		25.6%
+423
-135
+415
-145
3
1		-1.67954-1.69038-1.54024
Le Havre
Lille		7.2%
78.1%		14.7%
+645
-200
+650
-215
0
3		-0.43837-0.43183-0.24719
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.