France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 6, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Strasbourg
Reims 		28.3%
40.6%		31.0%
+115
+252
+115
+240
0.86
1.09		1.95
o2½-108
u2½-112
o2½-105
u2½-115
Toulouse
Marseille 		5.0%
82.8%		12.3%
+370
-130
+375
-140
0.51
2.64		3.15
o2½-120
u2¾-123
o2½-125
u2½+105
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Games for Apr 12, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nantes
Brest		34.8%
35.7%		29.6%
+260
+130
+225
+145
1
4		-0.85767-0.94410-1.03092
Nice
Montpellier		25.2%
49.3%		25.5%
+140
+187
+130
+200
2
2		-1.36285-1.30523-1.36743
Monaco
Reims		31.4%
39.8%		28.8%
+126
+240
+100
+265
0
0		-1.27482-1.33139-1.24618
Lille
Marseille		42.2%
30.0%		27.8%
+277
+108
+245
+115
1
1		-1.29430-1.27168-1.27880
Saint-Etienne
Toulouse		66.0%
13.6%		20.4%
+815
-240
+800
-275
1
2		-0.36337-0.36159-1.99724
Marseille
Saint-Etienne		51.0%
23.5%		25.5%
-172
+490
-185
+600
2
0		-0.49213-0.44870-0.67342
Rennes
Nantes		37.0%
33.0%		30.0%
+148
+235
+130
+240
0
1		-1.23299-1.27397-1.10736
Reims
Strasbourg		32.9%
34.8%		32.3%
+192
+148
+175
+155
0
0		-1.27329-1.28302-1.13131
Lyon
Angers		57.3%
19.8%		22.9%
-158
+425
-160
+420
3
0		-0.52520-0.53582-0.55752
Toulouse
Monaco		5.9%
82.3%		11.8%
+335
-113
+330
-125
0
2		-0.65720-0.63779-0.19539
Brest
Lille		12.4%
68.6%		19.0%
+510
-155
+450
-150
1
3		-0.53219-0.56161-0.37641
Monaco
Marseille		27.1%
47.7%		25.1%
+172
+162
+160
+165
1
2		-0.99682-1.02115-0.74005
Nice
Lyon		14.5%
66.4%		19.0%
+355
-133
+320
-130
1
4		-0.57839-0.61954-0.40931
Lille
Montpellier		49.6%
24.1%		26.2%
-117
+358
-140
+410
2
2		-1.33575-1.35681-1.33811
Nantes
Paris Saint-Germain		3.1%
88.8%		8.1%
+1500
-575
+1350
-550
1
1		-2.14515-2.04462-2.51257
Strasbourg
Brest		39.9%
31.6%		28.5%
+260
+118
+250
+120
1
3		-0.80533-0.82650-1.15148
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks32-1-0 (0.667)0-0.85000 
Sportsbooks32-1-0 (0.667)0-0.84603 
DRatings32-1-0 (0.667)0-0.76107
0.08893
0.08496

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.