France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Marseille
Nantes 		44.9%
27.1%		28.0%
-155
+420

1.32
0.95		2.27
o2¾-120
u3-122

Lorient
Paris Saint-Germain 		2.5%
90.6%		6.9%
+900
-405

0.50
3.46		3.96
o3½-104
u3½-115

Monaco
Metz 		42.9%
30.5%		26.6%
-231
+600

1.39
1.13		2.52
o3½+100
u3½-120

Games for May 1, 2026
Games for May 3, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Rennes
Metz		39.8%
30.5%		29.7%
-105
+272
+103
+250
1
0		-0.70453-0.75205-0.92153
Lorient
Nantes		25.0%
47.4%		27.6%
+142
+205
+143
+200
1
1		-1.25839-1.25141-1.28754
Angers
Toulouse		68.7%
12.1%		19.2%
+480
-147
+450
-150
1
0		-1.79360-1.75210-0.37478
Metz
Brest		32.3%
38.6%		29.1%
+365
-121
+352
-130
2
3		-0.62642-0.61897-0.95181
Monaco
Rennes		33.6%
39.2%		27.2%
+179
+147
+165
+150
1
4		-0.93935-0.96635-0.93545
Marseille
Nice		48.3%
26.1%		25.6%
-104
+286
-110
+287
5
1		-0.70729-0.69435-0.72780
Paris Saint-Germain
Lyon		76.2%
9.1%		14.8%
-170
+500
-160
+480
3
2		-0.49645-0.51671-0.27244
Nice
Metz		33.2%
38.8%		28.0%
+133
+205
+120
+210
1
2		-1.14939-1.18123-0.94778
Lille
Strasbourg		51.7%
22.9%		25.4%
+146
+180
+150
+170
0
2		-1.06297-1.04401-1.47451
Toulouse
Lorient		11.3%
69.0%		19.7%
+144
+215
+145
+200
1
1		-1.21520-1.22670-1.62618
Brest
Marseille		18.5%
58.1%		23.4%
+580
-208
+600
-215
0
3		-0.42495-0.41939-0.54347
Lyon
Brest		59.0%
18.6%		22.4%
+120
+261
+115
+250
0
0		-1.22792-1.25713-1.49714
Metz
Nantes		29.0%
41.7%		29.3%
+252
+113
+258
+110
2
0		-1.29313-1.31576-1.23853
Angers
Lille		13.3%
67.4%		19.3%
+775
-275
+800
-275
0
1		-0.34479-0.33935-0.39421
Strasbourg
Rennes		30.5%
40.5%		29.0%
+160
+176
+170
+170
1
4		-1.04974-1.01935-0.90365
Nice
Paris Saint-Germain		2.8%
90.4%		6.8%
+1600
-625
+1400
-650
0
1		-0.18300-0.19283-0.10105
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.91754 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.94296 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-1.12962
-0.21208
-0.18666

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.