France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Saint-Etienne
Nice 		29.9%
44.1%		26.0%
+550
-178
+530
-180
1.15
1.45		2.60
o2½-110
u2½-108
o2½-120
u2½+100
Games for Sep 19, 2024
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nantes
Toulouse		69.0%
11.3%		19.6%
+282
+110
+280
+105
2
1		-1.36771-1.38326-0.37079
Reims
Lorient		45.2%
24.7%		30.1%
-113
+330
-115
+330
0
2		-1.49143-1.49919-1.39918
Rennes
Le Havre		55.4%
19.4%		25.2%
+110
+298
+105
+280
1
0		-0.76327-0.77044-0.59117
Strasbourg
Lens		51.5%
22.5%		26.0%
+460
-150
+430
-150
1
3		-0.54521-0.56136-1.49192
Toulouse
Reims		6.4%
77.2%		16.4%
+370
-122
+350
-125
3
2		-1.57964-1.55452-2.74918
Le Havre
Monaco		13.7%
67.2%		19.1%
+510
-170
+530
-170
1
1		-1.50224-1.44274-1.65454
Lens
Nantes		20.1%
54.7%		25.1%
+110
+277
+110
+260
1
0		-0.77195-0.79308-1.60251
Montpellier
Rennes		31.7%
38.6%		29.7%
+590
-190
+510
-180
1
2		-0.45500-0.49127-0.95215
Lens
Toulouse		55.4%
19.6%		25.1%
+108
+260
+110
+260
2
0		-0.76656-0.78891-0.59083
Nantes
Reims		24.6%
45.3%		30.0%
+315
+100
+305
+105
0
0		-1.27909-1.26263-1.20257
Le Havre
Lorient		23.8%
48.8%		27.3%
+158
+220
+155
+205
3
3		-1.15382-1.15059-1.29678
Lille
Montpellier		49.6%
24.1%		26.2%
+105
+290
-105
+290
0
0		-1.28226-1.30567-1.33811
Monaco
Marseille		27.1%
47.7%		25.1%
+198
+137
+180
+145
2
2		-1.32573-1.30254-1.38071
Rennes
Lyon		19.8%
56.4%		23.8%
+182
+160
+190
+140
3
2		-1.06540-1.11480-1.62141
Lyon
Le Havre		71.2%
10.9%		18.0%
+147
+217
+145
+210
1
3		-1.18136-1.17847-2.21935
Montpellier
Brest		41.4%
30.1%		28.5%
+388
-120
+335
-120
0
2		-0.63390-0.65427-1.20091
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.